-- Edited by imoen at 12:25, 2006-09-02 -- Edited by RobC at 22:12, 2006-09-03 -- Edited by RobC at 22:14, 2006-09-04 -- Edited by RobC at 21:43, 2006-09-05 -- Edited by RobC at 21:20, 2006-09-06 -- Edited by RobC at 08:23, 2006-09-08
Greg & Boggo also start the week by gaining places: Mello, Saulnier and Agassi drop past them both, while Kendrick goes up past Boggo and Kubot goes past Greg, as qualifiers at the USO.
Other losers are Korolev and Luczak, while Falla, Bastl, Morrison and Russell all gain places after qualifying for the USO.
Beating Tim, would see Greg up a possible 8 places to 126th. Beating Federer............
If Kendrick were to beat Andy, it would be a double blow, as he'd overtake a Henman- losing Greg. Bastl would overtake them both if he won his first round. Morrison and Russell would both overtake Boggo if they got to the second round, while Bolelli would need to reach the semis in Como to do the same.
As far as threats are concerned, there's more happening at this end of the table in the first two days in New York.
Fewer people are playing this week than I thought would be the case down here in the second division. That's good news for Greg and Boggo (although it could change next week).
I don't think any of those qualifiers will win their round one matches as they all have pretty bad draws (watch them all win now) but I'll be putting quite a few pins in to make sure!
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To look at a thing is quite different from seeing a thing and one does not see anything until one sees its beauty
The good news is that I'd missed a few points being defended, meaning that Capdeville, Berrer and Peya drop places.
The result is that Greg is at 130, and that Boggo is at 135 - just 1 short of his highest ever ranking
Anyway, the news from New York is good at this end, only one competitor winning in New York and sneaking onto the table: a young pretender ranked about 170 or so until today called Agassi.
Otherwise, Saretta and Morrison lost.
Carlos Berlocq won in Como.
Over to Imoen to analyse the (considerable) threats.
First things first, a win over Henman would take Greg up to 124, although he could lose two places from that if Berlocq gets to the quarters of the Camo challenger and if Wang doesn't beat Federer.
Now, if Greg loses. The only person between him and Boggo currently is Kendrick who could really spoil the party by winning (overtaking Greg AND knocking out Andy).
So, threats to both of them. These guys can overtake both in one fell swoop by winning their round one matches: Berrer (plays Nalbandian), and Bastl (plays Ferrero). Then, Russell can overtake Boggo by winning round one, Greg by winning round 2.
We then get into challenger-land, all these guys have to reach the final to overtake Boggo: Hernandez, Bolleli, Haehnel, Marin. On the plus side they're all in the same challenger so only two can overtake! (can't overtake Greg even winning said challenger)
Kubot can overtake by reaching round 3 of the US open. (Greg as well).
And finally, Behrend and Fraile (just off the end of the table) can overtake by winning their respective challengers (only Boggo).
Oh and some guy called Agassi could cause some problems if he decides to keep winning.
So. Worst case for Greg, if he loses first round: a drop of 6 to 136 - where he started. Best case, if he loses first round: remaining where he is at 130 - 6 higher than last week.
Worst case for Boggo: a drop of 9 to 144. Best case for Boggo: remaining where he is at 135 - 5 higher than last week.
Just one final caveat, for anyone brave enough to have reached the end of the post... the situation could all change next week when more challengers occur.
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To look at a thing is quite different from seeing a thing and one does not see anything until one sees its beauty
......oh, and there's a few more US Open competitors off the bottom of the table still, who could have a good run and overtake. Jiri Novak and Sam Querrey are probably the better known of these....
As the action in New York looks like it'll take a while to happen, I've updated for today's Challenger results in Europe (updated on the ATP site time for once!)
Haehnel and Bolleli advance. Haehnel needs a semis place to overtake Boggo. Marin won, but has not advanced.
Hernandez is out, and Montcourt has withdrawn.
(Bad news in the Como draw, though: Jamie Delgardo went out in R1)
If you were following last week's thread, you'll be interested to know that Tipsarevic couldn't continue his top form from Central Asia into Central Europe. He went out in R1 in Freudenstadt.
(I think) there's only Novak, Sweeting and Okun still playing in NY off the bottom of the table.
There is one more in the form of Chiudineli.
Firstly, Rob and I are in the process of working out exactly where Kubot is in the table, I have him still behind Boggo (i much prefer my table). If that is the case then he is an immediate threat, winning against Okun would place him above both Brits, beyond any doubt. So mega pins into him.
Bolleli is the next threat to Boggo, he will overtake by winning his next round(ie reaching the semis) in the Camo Challenger. He will move ahead of Greg by winning the challenger.
Haehnel needs to win another two rounds to overtake Boggo (ie reaching the semis), and has to win to move ahead of Greg.
Marin must reach the final to overtake Boggo, and win to beat Greg (there's a pattern developing here!)
Agassi is up next, if he gets to the fourth round he will overtake both Greg and Boggo in one fell swoop.
Fraile and Behrend off the edge of the table can both overtake Boggo by winning their challengers.
So, worst case Boggo: a drop of 7 places (6 if Kubot is already above).
worst case Greg: a drop of 3 places.
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To look at a thing is quite different from seeing a thing and one does not see anything until one sees its beauty
Firstly, Rob and I are in the process of working out exactly where Kubot is in the table, I have him still behind Boggo (i much prefer my table). If that is the case then he is an immediate threat, winning against Okun would place him above both Brits, beyond any doubt. So mega pins into him.
Good news! both the ATP and tennisfacts had Kubot's 18th & 19th scores wrong. And it turns out he needs a 20th score as well.... the upshot is that he's only got 291 points, not 295, and is 3 places behind Boggo