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Post Info TOPIC: Penn Pick'em contest league
Sheddie


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Penn Pick'em contest league
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If you haven't heard, Penn are running a competition for this week's TMS event in Cincinatti in conjunction with the ATP.

It's a predictions competition, if you haven't done so already go to the ATP site and click on the massive logo and register for free.

Then click on "my picks," what you have to do is try to select the winners of every match in the tournament, continuing all the way to the final, and all your predictions must be done before the first match starts tomorrow.

If you get the winner correct for all the matches then you will win 1 million dollars.

There is a points system:

* 1 (one) point for each correct prediction in the first round
* 2 (two) points for each correct prediction in the second round
* 4 (four) points for each correct prediction in the third round
* 8 (eight) points for each correct prediction in the quarterfinal round
* 16 (sixteen) points for each correct prediction in the semi-final round
* 32 (thirty-two) points for each correct prediction in the final round
* 0 (zero) points for each incorrect pick or segment left blank.


If you fail to get all the matches correct you can still play for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd prizes. These are 2,500, 1,000 and 500 dollars.

I have a feeling that unless someone gets incredibly lucky, Penn's 1 million will be safe - there are so many matches in the 1st round alone which could go either way.

Good luck everyone, I thought we could have our own mini-league in this thread and follow the matches and post our scores so far after each day. Who will be the Andy Murray message board champion ?



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murrayman650


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im in

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stevemcqueen


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I think their $1M is pretty safe, I bet they havn't even bothered insuring against it.


To make the maths easy, lets assume that the chances of a player winning a match are 50%.  In a tournament with a 64 draw, there are 63 matches. Therefore, the chances of guessing all 63 matches correctly is 1 in 2 raised to the 63rd power. This works out at roughly 1 in 9 with 18 zeros ofter it.   1 in 9 million, million, million.



-- Edited by stevemcqueen at 12:03, 2006-08-14

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mkkreuk


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well ibvuously they're trying to sell it as being possible of winning because the probablity of predicting a match wouldnt be 50% for those who are "good enough". But either way its still impossible to do. Firstly there may be a few withdrawals just before it starts which pretty much ends the competition before it starts! Anyways there are two many matches that could go either way.


Still entering it cos its free and might as well see who can get the furthest....ive done my picks....



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Sheddie


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stevemcqueen wrote:

I think their $1M is pretty safe, I bet they havn't even bothered insuring against it.



>


Lol, I agree !

Is it just us 4 who've entered from this site ?


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steven


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Me too. It looks like they have insured it, but I'm sure it didn't cost very much to do so. Even if we assume matches are on average 75% predictable, the odds against anyone winning are about 1 in 70 million - 5 times worse than the odds of winning the national lottery jackpot in any given week!


All good fun though :)



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british4524


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I have chosen Murray beating FedExpress

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Drew


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I have entered....no chance of course ?

Maybe we should run our own mini-league of those playing from here...
.....the prize being a cool 1,000,000 AMs

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Sheddie


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Drew wrote:

I have entered....no chance of course ?

Maybe we should run our own mini-league of those playing from here...
.....the prize being a cool 1,000,000 AMs


Yeah that would be cool. Say, if you get all the matches right then 1 million AMs, 1st prize is 2,500 AMs, 2nd prize: 1,000 AMs and 3rd prize 500 AMs.

What do you think about doing this and adding the winners to our superhoops betting shop totals.

Of the matches on court right now my predictions aren't looking particularly promising:

I picked Johansson to beat Baghdatis, dunno why just a gut feeling. That one's 5-5 in the 1st set but Baggy has a bp right now. Edit: Thomas now leads 6-5.

I picked Davydenko to beat Chela, Chela has won all their previous matches but I had a feeling that Nicolay might be able to out-grind him. Unfortunately Chela has taken the 1st set 6-4 hopefully the Russian can come back and take it in 3.

Martin has beaten Almagro in all their previous matches and despite his current bad form I picked him to win this one. Really regretting that now as warning bells were going in my head as I decided that one and Almagro has taken the 1st set.

Picked Benneteau over Serra as Julien did so well in Toronto last week. However, I seem to have jinxed him and he's lost the 1st set 6-3.

Not looking that good so far



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Count Zero


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UltimateFlemingFan wrote:


 

Yeah that would be cool. Say, if you get all the matches right then 1 million AMs,



hmm after winning the $1mill i dont think you'd worry about the am's



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Sheddie


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Are you entered for this, Count ?

Things are looking up slightly for my chances:

Davydenko is a break up in set 2 of his match, Johansson has set point but unfortunately Martin and Serra are up a break in the 2nd sets of their matches.

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Sheddie


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Blast, my hopes of winning the million disappeared rather rapidly. Martin lost to Almagro 6-3, 6-3. Why on earth did I pick Martin to win

Benneteau has a break back pt in set 2 and Davydenko leads 5-2 in set 2 but sadly Baghdatis is running away with the 1st set breaker v Johansson

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Sheddie


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Oh mehr !!!!

Baggy took 1st set breaker, Davydenko took 2nd set 6-2 but Chela has broken right at the start of the 3rd. Luckily Serra-Benneteau is back on serve in set 2

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Andymonium


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im in...i already lost the million...serra bt bennateau

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Sheddie


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Thank god it's only 1 pt per correct rd1 prediction. I picked Martin and Benneteau to both lose in rd2. They've crashed out in rd1

C'est trop horrible pour ce moment

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