Weeks 27 & 28 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - men's singles

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

Weeks 27 & 28 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - men's singles

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

When was the last time we had 12 players in round one of Wimbledon (or any slam?) - someone will tell me it was quite recent, but it feels like a recent high to me.

Looking at this, my instinct (and I am usually wrong) is...

Arthur Fery - probably too tough for him, expect a loss
Charles Broom - could win this, Stan on grass in round one; I'd go go fifty fifty here
Liam - doubting he is match fit so not expecting a win
Jan C - toss up for this, not expecting a win
Evo - dont think he is going to be fit, so will expect a no show or a loss
Jack D - yep, straight sets
Cam - yep, Cam will win
Henry - tough for him, dont think he will do it
Andy - dont expect he will play, or win
Billy - on a roll, a win!
Paul - on a similar roll, a win
Jake - think Jake will win this

So I am going with 5 or maybe 6 wins from 12 - again, when would be the last time we had 6 in round 2? Again, probably last year I will be told!!

LordBrownof · Futures level

If Novak pulls out, Jake could make Round 3. That's my bold(?) prediction.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

LordBrownof wrote:
If Novak pulls out, Jake could make Round 3. That's my bold(?) prediction.

Novak looked in good shape from the prectice sessions I saw - so not expecting any pull out personally!

I dont expect Andy will make it for singles though and Evos situation is a mystery to me!

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

12 GB men and only 1 drew a seed ? I'd say it couldn't have worked out much better.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

If Andy makes the doubles, he and Jamie are playing Hijikata and Peers; if they got through that one, it would probably be Neal and Michael Venus next. That would feel like a very apt match to play at his last event!

miriam abc · Strong Club Player

If Cam and Jack both win they at each other.

Danny1312 · Junior player

Dan Evans is fit to play! Wow unexpected...

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Danny1312 wrote:
Dan Evans is fit to play! Wow unexpected...

Great news!!

steven · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:

So I am going with 5 or maybe 6 wins from 12 - again, when would be the last time we had 6 in round 2? Again, probably last year I will be told!!

Nearly! wink GB got 6 into R2 in total last year, 4 men & 2 women, but you only have to go back one more year to find the last time we got 6 men through to R2 - Murray, Norrie, Peniston, Draper, Broady & Gray all made it through R1 in 2022, another year which had a very kind draw from a GB point of view!

Boulter, Dart, Raducanu & Watson all made it through to R2 that year as well, giving us 10 in total, and that (mining my own old tweets wink ) was the first time we'd got into double figures since 1984, but the kindness of the draw is evidenced by the fact that it was right in line with the odds (E = 9.92), as indeed was last year's total, i.e. 6 c.f. E = 5.88.

Edit: added the bit about 1984

-- Edited by steven on Friday 28th of June 2024 04:09:53 PM

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

steven wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:

So I am going with 5 or maybe 6 wins from 12 - again, when would be the last time we had 6 in round 2? Again, probably last year I will be told!!
Nearly! GB got 6 into R2 in total last year, 4 men & 2 women, but you only have to go back one more year to find the last time we got 6 men through to R2 - Murray, Norrie, Peniston, Draper, Broady & Gray all made it through R1 in 2022, another year which had a very kind draw from a GB point of view!
Boulter, Dart, Raducanu & Watson all made it through to R2 that year as well, giving us 10 in total, but that was right in line with the odds (E = 9.92), as indeed was last year's total, i.e. 6 c.f. E = 5.88.

Ha, I think I had it in the back of my mind!

What are the bookies saying about the expectations for our men in R1 this year?

steven · Tennis legend

Still waiting for odds on Choinski and Evo, then I'll post them, but Cam & Jack big favourites (80%+), Billy, Paul and Jake all fairly clear favourites too (59-65%), Andy a slight favourite (56%, if he takes to the court), Charlie & Arthur both just above 40%, Liam just over 1 in 3 and Henry just over 1 in 10. I think the expected number through is going to end up at about 6, expected total including the women 9-10.

So at first sight, not quite as kind a draw as in 2022 when GB managed those numbers from 17 players instead of 19, but not far off, and hopefully they're going to be challenging the actual 2022 numbers of R1 wins.

steven · Tennis legend

Wimbledon GB men's R1 win probabilities, based on current odds:

88% Norrie
84% Draper
65% Harris
62% Jubb
59% Fearnley
56% Murray
44% Evans
42% Broom
41% Féry
35% Broady
28% Choinski
11% Searle

E(GB men's R1 wins) = 6.16

E(GB women's R1 wins) = 3.56

E(GB total R1 wins) = 9.72

So initial expectations/hopes are indeed for a year similar to 2022. It should be an exciting couple of days, Tuesday especially!

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Thanks Steven!

9vicman · Satellite level

Thanks Steven. Interesting to see that the bookies have Harris, Jubb and Fearnley as favourites. And each of them can win, but the three opponents ate decent players, and one came through qualifying. Think a case of recency bias.