I had this all written out and ready to submit on the long running women's WC thread, but it's now 52 pages, so really hard to navigate through the pages, so I have copied and pasted it on a new thread, hence the unusual format (and the OER link not working correctly...).
No Surbiton this year, but 11 weeks today until the start of Nottingham. Still plenty of time and events before then, but who would you see as the main MDWC contenders this year?
Heather obviously safely inside this year, and looks like there will only be 1 W100 instead of 3 this year - Ilkley @ Nottingham. They can have 8, but possibly won't use them all as has been the case in most recent years.
I'd say:
Dart - shoe in. Highest ranked, and made R3 in the previous edition
Jones - young, just outside the top 200, qualified for the last slam, and has had some great wins this year. All that is more than enough to secure a MDWC on merit (if they are to be handed out, for those against WCs), without even considering the extra good press her likely inclusion would bring.
Snigur - Reigning Jr champ, has recently cracked the top 200, so won't need a QWC, won a W25 last month
Raducanu - she's obviously not played competitive for over a year, probably 17 months by the time of the grass season, but if she wants to play, I'd say she would be fairly high up the list
I'd personally say those 4 are most likely at this stage, certainly the first 3, and for the rest, it'll depend on how many they wish to allocate, how they allocate the usual pre grass event WCs this year, and who has the best results among the other GB players like Burrage, Swan, maybe Bains, although that seems a longer shot, in the next couple of months. Boulter will be very interesting, she's used up both of her slam PRs, so would be relying on a WC of sorts (unless she can crack the top 240 or so in the next couple of months), and she did miss out on the 2019 grass season through injury. She has beaten Gauff and Kalinskaya this year, one a guaranteed entry, the other in and around the cut off, but perhaps a QWC might be more beneficial?
Murray-Sharan won't need a QWC this year if she is ready to play, but because they didn't even give her a QWC 2 years ago (she had to win the WC playoff) after doing so well at Manchester W100, I can't see them given her a MDWC at 33, despite coming the closest to qualifying last time out.
Interested to hear your thoughts on who you think are certainties, outsiders (maybe Matilda) etc. this year.
-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Saturday 20th of March 2021 03:06:43 PM
I'd promote anyone that is ranked highly enough to make quaifying into the Main Draw, Boulter will get a WC and thats it. I don't see any justification for Radacanu getting a MDWC right now.
To help people marshall their thoughts, here are the women ranked inside the top 400, with their rankings as of 15/02/21.
I can't really see anyone outside the top 9 having any claims for any sort of WC, and I would personally pick Harriet & Fran for MDWC, and then Katie S, Jodie and Katie B (unless she starts getting some good results) for QWC. Doubles is a different matter of course, and there will almost certainly be a few handed out there.
Cheers TA, good to get a clear, easy snapshot of the rankings.
I actually had Emma 2nd on my list initially, but then adjusted after writing Fran's recent accomplishments down, and I can't see them not given Snigur a MDWC going off their Jr allocation over the past 10 years, the only way I think would be is if the fact her success was in 2019 penalises her (although that is of course from a non GB perspective).
Emma will be interesting. I can certainly see why both posts above would look past her given she has not played on tour for so long, and she might well be out of the equation from her own POV with studies, or anything else stopping her playing competitively, but if she did make herself available for the pre grass events, then results/odds/chances wise, I'd say she'd have as good a chance of any of those below Harriet to pick up a win, and her age is obviously favourable, and she was given a QWC 2 years ago, so is at least on the selection committees radar.
-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Saturday 20th of March 2021 04:09:18 PM
I, like some others, dont like wildcards, with exception for real long term injury and comeback, and someone like Andy coming back. Wildcards are too pervasive all the way down into juniors including lta juniors and depend too much on favoritism and so called expert opinions.
Having said that I would think Harriet, Fran, Katy B and Katy S would probably be the brits getting them. Maybe fairer to just go down the rankings and give four to the first 4 inside top 250 or 300 or whatever. Wouldn't surprise me if Emma gets md wc, as the lta clearly have her as next young favourite, with her fed cup experience and financial support. But at some point she will need to play to show some sort of form.
Normally I would agree that WCs should be based on rankings but I'm not sure I agree with that this year when rankings are determined by results up to 2 years ago. Surely how players have performed this year should be the key factor. On that basis, at this stage I would say Harriet and Fran for MD and Katie S and Jodie for Q. Katie B and Emma will surely be in the mix too but whether MD or Q will depend on their performances between now and June. For the others it's all to play for.
Im reading Richard Evans fabulous book Open Tennis currently , I really do recommend it. Evans was a forerunner with the ATP when it set up. In the period around 74 , 73 when the ATP formed and the tour started, there was a big political battle around control of the mens tour. Who would have most votes, the ILTF, ATP (representing the players) and the Tournament Directors.
One of the upshots of this was the world rankings , the computer as it was (literally THE computer). The tournaments started using rankings for entry rather than tournament directors just choosing whoever they fancied , often with players travelling miles , thousands of miles, having been given a vague promise of entry to be usurped by someone more favoured.
In exchange for computer ranking entries , it was agreed each tournament should be allowed a few wildcards (typically 4 as per now) to give to whoever they wanted- usually a local favourite or a well known name from injury or a young up and comer or a late entry from a star name.
The point was though it was always intended the tournament director had complete jurisdiction over the wild cards with not being answerable to anyone else other than their own sponsors etc.
Just thought that might be interesting. The womens tour, and initially the Virginia Slims Tour run by Gladys Heldman followed in due course and ended up with a similar approach.
The first Wimbledon wild cards appear to be 1977 when 8 cards where given, 6 to British men and 2 to foreigners and the women had 4 of which 2 went to Brits .
As an aside, 1973 Wimbledon mens had 50 lucky losers due to the players strike!
I definitely think there is a place for WCs. A huge number of people going to Wimbledon don't follow tennis, it's just a nice day out for them and being able to get a seat on one of the outside courts to watch a GB player is a treat. I had a CC ticket 1st Tuesday of 2019 but I only actually sat on my seat to watch Roger, the rest of the time I wandered around and watched Harriet, Jay, Katie Swan and Paul Jubb. It was a lovely Sunny day and both Harriet and Jay won, Paul made a good match of it and only Katie fell short on the entertainment sadly. It was as thoroughly enjoyable day and I'm hoping I can replicate it this year.
To help people marshall their thoughts, here are the women ranked inside the top 400, with their rankings as of 15/02/21. I can't really see anyone outside the top 9 having any claims for any sort of WC, and I would personally pick Harriet & Fran for MDWC, and then Katie S, Jodie and Katie B (unless she starts getting some good results) for QWC. Doubles is a different matter of course, and there will almost certainly be a few handed out there.
I'd give Emma a main draw one. We remain too cautious with our wildcards for fear of bad press from the tabloids, compared to attitudes elsewhere.
If she's a serious prospect she should be exposed to that level at this stage, in my view. I'd be inclined to give Jodie one too. Boulter will get one.
Main Draw:
Dart Jones Burrage Raducanu Boulter Snigur
Katie S is on the margins for me, if she can string some wins together somewhere I would bump her up too. Less clear where the overseas wildcards come from just with there being less grass lead ups but sure the re-sited Ilkley winner would get one. And there's often a surprise run in Roland Garros or Birmingham.
Naiktha would probably be the only player Id put into qualies to join Sam without pre-qualifying. I'll need to remind myself who our top juniors are, I go back and forth between whether being top 75/50 ITF Junior means you should get a shot in qualies. Part of me feels like should kind of be a reward for being best in the country (and if you are making the junior main draw by right), but then junior rankings can really be all over the place with better teenagers already having moved on, and if you are up there in juniors but losing in 15k qualies I'm not sure I can justify it. Different if you have been doing reasonably well at that level in the previous 8 months but still only sitting at 400-600 in the pros. So for me I think Matilda needs to be getting to some QF/SFs of 15ks at least in next couple of months.
Feels a little lean this year, had hoped Harriet, Jodie and both Katie's would be sitting higher than they are by now, but lots can change and it's been a difficult period for everyone to adjust.
-- Edited by PaulM on Saturday 20th of March 2021 06:02:51 PM
One point to consider is that the entry points may be lower than usual for both main draw and qualies if some players continue to decide not to travel or face ongoing restrictions etc. This would mean players liKe Katie, Naiktha and Jodie might get into qualies without a wc in any case and then there will be a decision as to whether to bump them up from there.
But of course we will continue to have them for the foreseeable future.
Brits to almost certainly benefit from MD WCs this year will be Harriet and Fran.
In the mix may be Sam, Katie S, Naiktha, Jodie, Katie B and Emma ( in current ranking order ), all though may have to prove a case to varying degrees. I imagine all these, if fit and available, will get some sort of Wimbledon WC if needed. Matilda M may be a QWC candidate.
Im reading Richard Evans fabulous book Open Tennis currently , I really do recommend it. Evans was a forerunner with the ATP when it set up. In the period around 74 , 73 when the ATP formed and the tour started, there was a big political battle around control of the mens tour. Who would have most votes, the ILTF, ATP (representing the players) and the Tournament Directors.
One of the upshots of this was the world rankings , the computer as it was (literally THE computer). The tournaments started using rankings for entry rather than tournament directors just choosing whoever they fancied , often with players travelling miles , thousands of miles, having been given a vague promise of entry to be usurped by someone more favoured.
In exchange for computer ranking entries , it was agreed each tournament should be allowed a few wildcards (typically 4 as per now) to give to whoever they wanted- usually a local favourite or a well known name from injury or a young up and comer or a late entry from a star name.
The point was though it was always intended the tournament director had complete jurisdiction over the wild cards with not being answerable to anyone else other than their own sponsors etc.
Just thought that might be interesting. The womens tour, and initially the Virginia Slims Tour run by Gladys Heldman followed in due course and ended up with a similar approach.
The first Wimbledon wild cards appear to be 1977 when 8 cards where given, 6 to British men and 2 to foreigners and the women had 4 of which 2 went to Brits .
As an aside, 1973 Wimbledon mens had 50 lucky losers due to the players strike!
My point here was to say that I think the intent of a wildcard is to allow the tournament organisers to enhance their event. Of the Brits, therefore id say only Harriet, Fran, Jodie, Katie B and Emma do. Katie Swan Im not sure of and the others dont for me, Matilda not yet ready but could if they took a real risk.
Id say Harriet, Fran and Katie B are shoo ins of the Brits for main draw and agree Snigur should get one.
Katie S has had a good start to the season so shes possible. I tend to think that any Fed Cup players are favoured.
I know there wont be lots of lead up tournaments but would be nice if we could also reward players whove done particularly well in 2021 but whose rankings are artificially deflated by points not dropping off elsewhere, even if not on grass.