Coronavirus - general, non tennis related

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Coronavirus - general, non tennis related

indiana · Tennis legend

I am generally all for us all doing our part re such as masks and social distancing.

BUT on the face of it just how boneheaded were the Met to get involved at all in the Clapham Common vigil/protest? Whether an unauthorised gathering or not, whether with later speeches the crowd were jamming together and clearly not social distancing, common sense said surely stand back, observe and let people naturally disperse, as has been done at times with say Black Lives Matter protests.

Again not condoning violence that then ensued with possible inevitable intermingling troublemakers but all seemingly brought on by inexplicable Met decision making.

The enquiries, independent and not so independent, will be interesting. But it cannot just fall back on "Oh, we can't make exceptions". Sensible choices can still be made.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
I am generally all for us all doing our part re such as masks and social distancing.

BUT on the face of it just how boneheaded were the Met to get involved at all in the Clapham Common vigil/protest? Whether an unauthorised gathering or not, whether with later speeches the crowd were jamming together and clearly not social distancing, common sense said surely stand back, observe and let people naturally disperse, as has been done at times with say Black Lives Matter protests.

Again not condoning violence that then ensued with possible inevitable intermingling troublemakers but all seemingly brought on by inexplicable Met decision making.

The enquiries, independent and not so independent, will be interesting. But it cannot just fall back on "Oh, we can't make exceptions". Sensible choices can still be made.

I agree, it was the most misjudged display I can think of, purely badly handled by the Met, worse still given the background of one of their own being the accused for the murder of that poor woman.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

100% agree, Indy.

Other protests and marches during lockdown have been accommodated (not particularly well, in all cases, but ....)

If ever there was a call for a consensual approach, it was this time.

The police could have limited the numbers of the vigil, or extended the area and insisted on distancing, or made it into a march/parade, which supposedly is less dangerous because you're moving, or any number of things (I'm no expert, the police are supposed to be good at this sort of thing).

To blanket ban it was only ever going to infuriate the attendees and to concentrate the anti-police feeling. A lot of the 'milder' members who would 'dilute' the crowd would not attend, leaving you - by definition - with a group of people with rather more extreme views. And feelings, understandably, were running very high. So, then anything the police did was going to be a tinder spark. Which the police should have been very sensitive to. Because, as soon as it kicks off a little, it's going to get out of control very quickly.

Which is not to blame the people, at all - the police's orders should be made public.

I know a couple of people who went. Reasonable people. Most certainly not looking for a fight.

Given the sensitivity of the police's involvement in this murder (not just the murderer himself but the investigation into his behaviour beforehand), surely this was the time for an ultra light and community friendly approach. And there are surely plenty of ways that could happen within the confines of lockdown.

-- Edited by Coup Droit on Monday 15th of March 2021 09:53:54 AM

Elegant Point · Satellite level

Animals use social distancing to avoid disease and ants are better at social distancing than we are!

If you want to know how best to survive a pandemic, take some tips from the experts - ants, lobsters, birds, mandrills and fish.

Ants have impeccable hygiene. They groom and clean one another on entering the nest to check for disease in their case, a deadly fungal spore. No need for hand sanitiser for them: they spray formic acid from their mouths to thoroughly destroy any pathogens they find.
Second, ants that get sick play their part too they take themselves away from the nest, ie they self-isolate. Sadly, for ants, infection is nearly always fatal, making this self-isolation the ultimate sacrifice. Finally, when infection is in the air, even ants that are NOT infected also steer clear. They spend more time out foraging for food, and less time in the nest, where they might become infected, or infect others. In other words, they use pre-emptive social distancing.

When it comes to stopping the spread of Corona, as in nature, tried-and-true behaviors such as social distancing are our best tools until vaccines or treatments can be developed. But just like other animals, we have to be strategic about it. Like mandrills and ants, we can maintain the most essential social interactions and distance farthest from those who are most vulnerable and who we could infect by accident. The success of spiny lobsters against a devastating virus in the Caribbean shows that short-term costs of social distancing, while severe, have long-term payoffs for survival.

next time youre trying to make sense of the tier system or remember where you put your mask, think of the ant, and remember that for us, as well as them, its all about looking after one another.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/animals-use-social-distancing-to-avoid-disease1/

-- Edited by Elegant Point on Monday 15th of March 2021 05:09:05 PM - wont let me put quotes around the text I cut and pasted

-- Edited by Elegant Point on Monday 15th of March 2021 05:09:57 PM

paulisi · Tennis legend

Numbers seem to have plateaued at 5-6k.
A lot of the areas with rises seen to have a prison in their area.

indiana · Tennis legend

Although the UK new case numbers continue to look relatively better than most of Europe they have indeed certainly been coming down slower over the last 2 weeks.

13/02 - 19/02 : new cases 81471, deaths 3633
20/02 - 26/02 : new cases 67816, deaths 2495
27/02 - 05/03 : new cases 44219, deaths 1674
06/03 - 12/03 : new cases 40983, deaths 1082
13/03 - 19/03 : new cases 37398, deaths 683

The lag hospitalisation and death figures have continued to consistently push downwards but will the easing in the new case falls begin to show signigicantly in these figures too, or will improved treatments and the vaccine mean continued big improvements in these stats too, with the new case figures perhaps more weighted to a younger less at risk group? An important few weeks coming up.

Scotland has a particular new case problem in that while there too the hospital and death figures have continued to significantly fall for now, their new cases numbers have actually increased over each of the last 2 weeks.

I think we have to be looking at schools regarding this and I believe Scotland was ahead of the rest of the UK with pupils return. Not saying the rewards there don't outweigh the risks but it has to be factored in as an issue. A clear advantage of a step by step easing of restrictions is that you can more pinpoint problem areas.

New cases last week : UK as a whole - about 55 per 100,000. Scotland about 75 per 100,000.

Elegant Point · Satellite level

Whilst the picture for the UK is improving, Coronavirus cases have been rising in much of Europe in a third wave of infections, with 20 countries in the European Union reporting increasing test positivity and 15 countries reporting increasing hospital or ICU admissions due to covid-19 as of 14 March, according to the ECDPC.

We have now seen 3 consecutive weeks of growth in covid-19 cases with over 1.2 million new cases reported last week across Europe, said World Health Organization (WHO). According to an AFP tally based on official numbers, 2.6 percent of the European Union's population have received two doses of COVID-19 vaccines and 5.4 percent have got one dose.

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Don't know if it's a coincidence (!), but in France, Wednesday and Thursday's figures showed a sudden surge in infection rates, going from a steady average of 22k or so, per day, up to about 36k.

And now Friday, first day ever that I remember, the figures were not released due to a 'technical error'.

And Saturday morning, they're still not out.....

indiana · Tennis legend

I think time for the UK to look to greatly improve what has generally been far too lax border security and applying quarantine rules re arrivals into the UK.

For now we are in a better position than most, let's keep it that way

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Wow- related to discussion on brexit thread re anti vaccine

www.bbc.co.uk/news/56420379

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

An interesting take on why the French paused the use of AZ vaccine. I don't know this person, but he seems knowledgeable and is followed by some serious journalists such as Lewis Goodall of Newsnight and the BBC.

twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1373208360699445248

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

But this is a just a scare-mongering way to use statistics:

"Despite the howling mockery, France's decision on Friday to limit AZ shots to over-55s (for now) makes sense. Incidence of v. v. rare but grave types of blood clots (ie not all clots) has increased between 5 and 8 times amongst under-55s in Europe who have taken AZ. 3/12"

Yes, it might be 5 times higher, but if that means it's gone from 2 to 10, when you've vaccinated about 20 million people, does that mean it should be stopped?

Look at the EMA and BMJ stats for the clots and how many occur normally.

And then add that to the fact that France is losing about 300 people per day to covid.

Each day you suspend it means deaths you needn't have had (not immediately obviously, but in the long run).

Not to mention the other deaths you are going to get by alienating people who will refuse to be vaccinated even when it resumes.

John Lichfield is a French correspondent, probably with many friends in Paris, but he is not a scientist.

indiana · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
But this is a just a scare-mongering way to use statistics:

"Despite the howling mockery, France's decision on Friday to limit AZ shots to over-55s (for now) makes sense. Incidence of v. v. rare but grave types of blood clots (ie not all clots) has increased between 5 and 8 times amongst under-55s in Europe who have taken AZ. 3/12"

Yes, it might be 5 times higher, but if that means it's gone from 2 to 10, when you've vaccinated about 20 million people, does that mean it should be stopped?

Look at the EMA and BMJ stats for the clots and how many occur normally.

And then add that to the fact that France is losing about 300 people per day to covid.

Each day you suspend it means deaths you needn't have had (not immediately obviously, but in the long run).

Not to mention the other deaths you are going to get by alienating people who will refuse to be vaccinated even when it resumes.

John Lichfield is a French correspondent, probably with many friends in Paris, but he is not a scientist.

Indeed, to me it's a no brainer re risk and reward and doesn't appear to need that much consideration to reach such a conclusion.

Plus yes the awful message it sends to those who need little encouragement to spread / believe any rubbish quite apart from some who may genuinely be quite unnecessarily confused by seemingly well expressed but flawed logic.

He could have explained the different types of blood clot but at least then gone on to clarify the risk / reward numbers which, without reading it all, I take it he did not.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Yes, I've read a couple of very interesting long articles this week about how people misunderstand the difference between danger and risk (one was by a British guy, and one a French guy).

They're probably right up your street, Indy, and other more maths minded people (i.e. not me)

But it does make me cross.

Yes, it's probably dangerous to take a vaccine, it's dangerous to take most medication (just look at the side-effect sheets), it's dangerous to cross the road, it's dangerous to walk down stairs (the ONS says about 620 people die per year from falls on stairs), it's dangerous to get out of bed in the morning (in fact, it's dangerous to go to bed in the first place - about 15 people per year die from accidental suffocation)

But the risk is SO tiny.

So, Spain has done really well in getting things under control. Deaths are now about 120 per day, I think. But that's still 120 per day. So when they suspend the vaccine for TWO weeks, despite only having one case of serious thrombosis, out of 1 million jabs, that may, or may not, be connected to the vaccine, you ask, what gives? How tiny does the risk have to be? And that's not even balancing it against the benefits.

France is now being locked down and risks being overrun by the virus once again, with under 75s now making up the big majority of those affected (which is mainly because the older ones have been vaccinated and are protected). I believe the public will move back towards having the vaccine. My partner thinks Macron has blown it, thousands won't, no matter what. But it's certainly all messed up.

Politico had an interesting little thing about the precautionary principle in EU thinking (which is definitely something you hear in France), and how it is rather hijacked by the public and the media, against expert bodies. Now, certain things are more open to debate i.e. the theory is still the same but the urgency is not. But that doesn't apply to covid.

www.politico.eu/article/revenge-of-the-precautionary-principle/

-- Edited by Coup Droit on Sunday 21st of March 2021 01:46:19 PM