Coronavirus - general, non tennis related

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

RE: Coronavirus - general, non tennis related

Oakland2002 · All-time great

Really worried about the impact of a second peak, already there has been a dramatic increase in deaths over and above those expected ie a 50K excess, COVID only accounting for 32K (= entire population of the town I grew up in).

Obviously there is variation across the country in terms of the actual ITU capacity used but realistically it will take a month to get to a point where other urgent services can be provided consistently which would just about be totally scuppered by a spike generated by relaxation of lock down measures this week.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Bob in Spain wrote:
flamingowings wrote:
Nothing from the Gov about people on visas....

Jacinda Arden (who is simply the best right now regarding leaders and covid-19) automatically gave people on a work visa an extension to September. Automatically - you didn't have to apply.

Meanwhile, UK Gov have extended visas to 31st May and you need to apply. My partner applied 2 weeks ago and has heard nothing. Can he leave the country - should he leave the country? His visa is up next week - so he would be breaching it. It's difficult getting back to NZ due to flights frequently being cancelled and/or expensive.

What happens on 31st May - is everyone just kicked out the country on expiration? Given that in Scotland the message is very much stay *home* (rather than alert) he would rather stay here but that could cause massive issues later on.

Meanwhile, I'm trying to scramble around and get my own visa to NZ in asap.
Edited to add: I'm very happy that at least Nicola Sturgeon can speak, rather than Boris who waffles. There are things you can criticise Nicola and her party for, but this situation re: covid-19 I don't think is one of them (except for locking down earlier but you could say that about a load of places).

-- Edited by flamingowings on Tuesday 12th of May 2020 09:41:08 PM
It is a difficult situation for you and as someone who spent 3 years fighting for my own right to stay in Spain after Brexit, I fully understand the stress that you are going through. I hope you are able to sort out the situation for your partner and I do think a blanket extension for 3 months is the obvious way for the government to go. I hope your sake, and for that of your partner, that you can find clarity and a solution rapidly.
As for New Zealand, I agree with you re Jacinda Ardern. She has been the stand out leader for me throughout this crisis with decisive action - we go hard, we go early - but also coming across with clarity and compassion at the same time.
Declaring the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy as essential workers was a stroke of genius.

Jacinda Arden is the stand out leader globally, right now, full stop. Impressive in almost everything she touches, at least that we see internationally

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Sorry to hear about your added, and unnecessary, stress, flamingowings.

Agree, can't see any reason at all that you wouldn't just roll visas - obviosuly far better for the visa-holders, in very difficutl times, and, I mean, even from a self-interest point of view, do they authorities WANT all that additional paperwork, at this time??? Just daft....

My problem with the lockdown is this: it seems to me that there is no fundamental difference between now, when we're easing restrictions, and mid-March when we imposed them.
Yes, the infection rate and the death rate have fallen but that's obvious when people are not in such close contact.
But, intrinsically, it's the same. Still no cure, no vaccine, not enough immunity in the population and - most importantly - not enough testing to know if someone is carrying it and no way of contact tracing if we find they are.
So, for me, (and hope I'm completely wrong) but I think infections will go back up because there's no reason they won't and no way to prevent it (in the UK, at any rate).
So I think the lockdown has limited value (it prevented the health system being overwhelmed, which was important, but that's all). I don't see what real difference two weeks will make in the UK.
Instead of quaratining everyeone to effectively shield the elderly and frail, we need to quaratine the elderly and frail directly.
Which is discriminatory, but so is the virus.

Elegant Point · Satellite level

Back to herd immunity: Matt Hanc@ck denies herd immunity was ever a government strategy, as the WHO condemns it as a dangerous way to manage C-19.

The term herd immunity is usually reserved for the percentage of the population who need to be vaccinated to protect those who are not. For C-19 the number of people who need to be immune to confer this isn't known......and we have no idea how many people have C-19 immunity. Studies have reported that 90% of people hospitalised with C-19 have Ab, but % of those who had a mild infection with Ab is unknown. Estimates 10% of 'control' population( ie non hospitalised) have Ab - more data required.

So no vaccine, no antiviral drugs and uncertain herd immunity, hello second wave.........As mentioned numerous times above, currently the best way to manage C-19 is by stopping transmission of the virus. Done by testing, contact tracing and isolation. Maybe C-19 passports for those with Ab? but uncertain as to how long immunity lasts, best guesses based on SARS, flu so ~ 1 year.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-who-uk-matt-han****-a9510231.html

Elegant Point · Satellite level

Interesting article suggesting MMR vaccine may offer some protection against C-19.

Found sequence homology between C-19 and rubella and hypothesised that the groups with the poorest outcome for C-19 are the groups least likely to have had MMR vaccine. Those most likely to have had MMR vaccination (young people) would have the best outcome against C-19.

Findings are at a preliminary stage and the authors are not suggesting MMR vaccine prevents C-19 infection, but that it provides protection against a poor outcome of C-19 infection.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20053207v1.full.pdf. Not sure why my links aren't always live - think it's something to do with my iPad :(

of course this link is fine

-- Edited by Elegant Point on Wednesday 13th of May 2020 09:34:35 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Further death stats covering the last 5 weeks ( morbid I know, sorry ), now taking 7 day periods rather than my previous 10 day periods to offset the limited overall trend effect of say weekend dips, since as Bob pointed to there were nevertheless some effects.

Weeks running from Thursday to Wednesday total daily additions. These last 5 weeks are : :09/04-15/04 / 16/04-22/04 / 23/04-29/04 / 30/04-06/05 / 07/05-13/05.

Weekly totals:
ITALY : 3976 / 3440 / 2597 / 2002 / 1422
SPAIN: 4020 / 2905 / 2558 / 1582 / 1247

These two nations have continued their falls, rougjly halving their weekly death tolls every 3 weeks.

UK : 6410 / 6145 / 5037 / 3978 / 3110

The last 2 weeks have shown similar death totals to Italy and Spain from 3 weeks earlier and the last week is also just over half of 3 weeks before. A reasonable expectation, particularly with the lag in effecting death figures, would be another halving over the next 3 weeks to quite well under 2000. Then we begin to run into any early effects from the limited easing of the lockdown, particularly in England. Note that all the UK figures retrospectively now include the official care home and community counts.

USA : 15021 / 15180 / 13761 / 13144 / 10398

Higher overall figures but still quite a bit lower per capita than Spain, Italy and the UK . For now also decreasing. I maintain that there are still particular uncertainties with the US over and above these that exist elsewhere.

GERMANY : 1455 / 1511 / 1152 / 808 / 586

Clearly Germany has always had much more control over matters than the others above. And has still been having substantial decreases over the last few weeks. Its data in a few weeks will be interesting as it eases lockdown restrictions.

SWEDEN : 516 / 734 / 525 / 479 / 519

An interesting one. Sweden has rather gone its own way with very limited day to day restrictiions. Yes, they have had by far the highest per capita fgures in Scandanvia, but they have overall been lower than Spain, Italy snd the UK ( though per capita above all of these, including the UK, in the last week, as lockdown has hugely brought down the others' figures, though at huge cost ). And their figures have held steady, not getting out of control, with considerably less economkc effects. To me, the fact that these have remained under relative control suggests that the measures which they hsve imposed, eg. re sporting fixtures and I imagine other large gatherings, have hugely heloed, without the much more stringent lockdown rules on contacts and going about daily life. Maybe things to be learned by others as they ease lockdowns as to what moves are likely to most effect things? - eg. perhaps it is these large gatherings that pose the biggest risk if relaxed but otherwise maybe much more can be normslised, to aid the economy but still protect lives and the NHS. Much better testing, tracking and tracing would help too.

Michael D · All-time great

A detailed study in Spain in which nearly 70,000 people were tested from covid-19 antibodies has just had it's draft published. It shows an average of about 5% of the population have antibodies.

english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html

The Spanish overall figure of 5% is in line with studies in other European countries that showed a prevalence of 4% to 5%, far below the rate that would provide the population with so-called herd immunity, and which experts place at 60% at the very least.

If the percentage of infected people who eventually die is around 1.1%, as the study suggests, the cost in human lives of herd immunity would be between 200,000 and 300,000, making the method unacceptable. Epidemiologists consulted by this newspaper said that social distancing measures must remain in place until a vaccine becomes available.

Deaths among infected people
Another way to look at the preliminary results is that over 90% of infections in Spain have gone undetected by the healthcare system. Official figures as of Wednesday showed 228,691 positive cases confirmed by PCR lab tests, which detect active infections.

Yet the study suggests that over two million people have contracted the virus at some point, and that many were not even aware of it.

Five percent is the equivalent of 2,350,000 cases. If there were around 27,100 deaths, that means that the fatality rate is between 1 and 1.2%.

indiana · Tennis legend

Drive anywhere in England for your exercise and relaxation. So although many of the natonal parks and beach resorts have made.clear that they don't want hordes of folk, they are getting them.

The back to work move was understandable. Allowing travel to anywhere in England was not. - sheer folly! The recreational sporting relaxations are debatable.

Some will say that this is unimportant compared to say the ongoing crisis in care homes. But it is not an either/or. For now you try to do what you can in all problematic areas.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 16th of May 2020 05:29:04 PM

Jajon · Strong Club Player

When does it become politically acceptable to criticise this government because I am READY

indiana · Tennis legend

Jajon wrote:
When does it become politically acceptable to criticise this government because I am READY

If you want to criticise aspects of the coronavirus response, as some folk have done, then go for it.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

I am going to have a little rant about the "back to school" debate which is going on at the moment. I do have a vested interest in this debate as I have family members (nephews) that are teachers in the UK.

Whether or not it is safe to go back to school yet is IMO still open to debate. My personal opinion is "not yet", but others will perhaps disagree. I accept that no return will ever be 100% risk free. Life isn't like that. But my gripe is not about whether or not it is safe, but about the management of the process leading up to any return.

It would seem to me that a logical protocol would be as follows:

1) Agree with the scientists what guidelines are required - 2m distancing, packed lunch only, all children to wear masks/gloves, track/trace in place etc
2) Meet with teachers/unions to discuss the practicality of implementing those guidelines and giving teachers time to make their preparations
3) Agree with scientists the criteria to trigger such a return - eg R < 0.5, daily infection rate < 1000 etc
4) Inform teachers that once criteria are met, they will be given 1 week's notice prior to any return.

But instead of that, Boris Johnson simply announced in his Sunday night broadcast that Years 1/6/10/12 were all going back on 1st June. The teachers and unions reaction quite naturally was - "You what ? Don't you think you should have discussed this with us first ?". The NAHT (National Association of Head Teachers) have confirmed that they were neither informed or even consulted on any potential return date, prior to that announcement being made.

schoolsweek.co.uk/coronavirus-largest-heads-union-says-it-wasnt-consulted-over-june-1-return-plan/

When the teachers were audacious enough to ask what procedures and guidelines they were expected to follow to ensure safety, they were told that these guidelines would follow in due course. I watched Gavin Williamson in the briefing last week and he was repeatedly asked about the safety concerns of returning to school, and he kept chanting "education is important for our children". Well we get that Mr Williamson. Education IS important for our children, but so is not dying. So how do you propose to achieve that.

Yesterday, George Eustace was doing the briefing and was asked many similar questions. His repeated response was basically "well Denmark have gone back". Perhaps he is unaware that on Monday of this week the death toll in the UK was 545 and the death toll in Denmark was 1. Denmark have had plenty of time to prepare their classrooms and procedures have been agreed and are in place. Class sizes are typically much smaller as well.

The government and the Ministry of Education could not have handled this situation worse in my opinion. Why have they done so badly ? Well the easy answer is that they are totally incompetent. There are a lot of people who now believe that.

But the more cynical among us, might put forward a different reason. Was their strategy a deliberate attempt to upset the teaching unions in an effort to cause friction. The push back from teachers would then allow the government to shift the blame (notice how they are beginning to blame scientists for decisions taken in the early stages of the pandemic) in an effort to exonerate themselves in the eyes of the public.

I genuinely believe though that the public are gradually beginning to see through the smoke and mirrors approach of this government and support for them is definitely falling.

indiana · Tennis legend

Indeed, Bob. Yes, I think the comparative awful handling of some aspects is becoming clearer and clearer to folk after the initial natural willingness to support and get behind the government in a time of crisis.

The catastrophic decision to delay the imposition of the lockdown, although being clearly put on the coming agenda, was largely put down to not putting the British public into lockdown 'too soon' because their patience might somehow uniquely ebb before they were really needed as the death total began to spike.

So we carried on with such as football and Cheltenham and other large gathetings for at least a week or two too long and thus have seen thousands upon thousands of additional folk dying unnecessaily because of that non scientific awful judgment call on British character plus sheer indecisiveness. Hit hard snd early have been the success stories.

While good to see our daily death rate falling from its initial peak, over the last fortnight our official death rate per capita has remained in the top two countries in the world, looking at these with a population of over a million ( 'competing' with Sweden )*. Our infected totals remain relatively high and r at the top end of a very wide estimated range is still close to 1.

Not the time to be taking unnecessary speculative chances. While we know children are much less at risk of serious illness, little seems truly known regarding their infection rate and ability to pass the virus on to others ( such as other children, teaching staff and their families ). If these aspects are similar to the population as a whole then clearly opening up schools is a big risk with our general numbers still as high as they are.

Just hold back and properly consult and plan for reopening schools after the summer holidays.

* looked at purely for the last week, Thursday 14/05 to Wednesday 20/05 official figures, although the UK death rate has continued to drop, it does actually edge Sweden to have the #1 deaths in the week per capita of countries with populations of over a millillon.

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 20th of May 2020 10:20:46 PM

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:

Just hold back and properly consult and plan for reopening schools after the summer holidays.

Which is what they are doing here in Spain.

indiana · Tennis legend

Bob in Spain wrote:
indiana wrote:

Just hold back and properly consult and plan for reopening schools after the summer holidays.
Which is what they are doing here in Spain.

Unless trying to send out some spurious message, why would the UK government do anything else in its position? disbelief