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Post Info TOPIC: Coronavirus - general, non tennis related


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Coronavirus - general, non tennis related


New thread to try as much as possible to separate general coronavirus discussion, re such as stats and policy, from tennis related coronavirus discussion on such matters as say tournaments and rankings. 



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indiana wrote:
******************************************

C: reported deaths on Thu 09/04 to Sat 18/04
D: reported deaths on Sun 19/04 to Tue 28/04

[...]

USA :
C: 2111, 2236, 2024, 1727, 1726, 2566, 2631, 2193, 2543, 1883 - 10 day total 21640
D : 1570, 1952, 2683, 2358, 2340, 1957, 2065, 1156, 1384, 2470 - 10 day total 19935

[...]

In the USA with the apparent plateauing and then slight general drop in the last two 10 day periods, experience from the other countries would suggest a distinct downward trend to come. But the USA has such diverse states with different policies, plus a very different president, that making predictions is much more fraught with uncertainty. I see that, as the USA total death total passes 60,000, the University of Washington on Monday predicted reaching 74,073 by the start of August, having upped this estimate from nearly 67,000 a week earlier and 60,000 a week before that. I don't need a university department behind me to suggest that the president's institution of choice for quoting estimates has once again gone seriously too low.

**************************************************************

As a follow-on to my post of last week on the other coronavirus thread ( editing above to concentrate on the US parts ) I see that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has managed to move this week beyond total fantasy, and its latest update for estimated US deaths by the start of August is 134,000 ( from that 74,073 figure just a week ago ). Possibly still too low the way things are going but much more in the real world.

Evidently various other organisations have been hugely upping various daily and long term estimates too in the face of various states apparently truly intending to markedly relax restrictions plus seeing Democrat Michigan ( with some of the highest figures ) having to deal with gun-toting insurgents ( or good people as Trump would say ) looking for relaxations there.

It's madness 



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Just to highlight now a second thread more specifically around data and the medical/economic ramifications of Corona virus that the snapshot online questionnaire open to all healthcare professionals opened yesterday.

It is being widely disseminated across social media and although simple and easy to complete should provide more useful evidence in understanding where COVID hotspots have been in the healthcare setting, the relationship between availability of PPE and occupational infection, the relative infection rates of healthcare workers in different settings and their role.

I have no political agenda in asking people to disseminate but declare a vested interest as a healthcare worker who is regularly exposed to COVID patients, I have had access to appropriate PPE throughout for aerosol generating procedures, I have had to self isolate but only due to likely community acquired infection of a family member. So for example my submission is consistent with best practice given the available evidence.

A valuable exercise collecting as much data as possible around the demographics & infection rates of all healthcare workers starts kicks off tomorrow May 4th through your the 18th with a snapshot survey open to all healthcare workers covering the period Feb 1st to when it shuts. This will allow a valuable baseline against which to measure future surveys of obvious hot spots.

This work is supported by medical colleges and many other groups that represent frontline workers and is open to all healthcare workers in all settings.

Any help at increasing awareness greatly appreciated

@HealthcareCovid

twitter.com/healthcarecovid/status/1256610702921523203





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With 683 deaths added to the total today, the UK has overtaken Italy in overall number of dearlths recorded, to lie 2nd in pure numbers to the USA ( though still less than Belgium, Spain and Italy per capita ). 

Every death is a tragedy. Italy was hugely hit early on and initially mostly in one region, largely unexpectedly. We had much more warning and these figures ( even if not collected on precisely the same basis ) are further condemnation of relative inaction in some aspects.

I recall news pictures of major steps being taken in Italy, when instead of just reporting we should have already been following such steps and getting ahead of their trajectory. Rather than just wash your hands and we would supposedly take the right steps at the right time.

We have got away with the initial peak not overwhelming the NHS, and some very good steps were taken such as the Nightingale Hospitals, but perhaps still an element of luck, and still too many lives lost directly and probably indirectly.



-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 5th of May 2020 09:16:14 PM

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New data suggests that C-19 was circulating in France in  Dec 2019 - a retest of samples taken from patients presenting with flu like symptoms Dec-Jan but tested negative for flu, have found 1 patient sample was positive for C-19. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/france-coronavirus-december-death-intl/index.html

In Feb/March Prof Chris Smith, Virologist at uni Cambs noticed a peak of cases of people in Cambs/Hertfordshire reporting symptoms of C-19  but with no cases of pneumonia.



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I see the Telegraph and Guardian today are confirming that the much heralded on/off/on/off PPE shipment from Turkey that the RAF eventually had to fly over and collect, was a waste of time and money.

We apparently paid for 400.000 gowns, all of which have failed the quality testing and are currently being stored in a warehouse near Heathrow, awaiting repatriation. The DHSC is going to seek a refund.

I am going to bite my tongue and leave it there.

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Nicola Sturgeon has had a few things ro say. She seems on a rather different page to Boris. While her preference is to move together, she indicates that Scotland could certainly go down a more cautious route.

Partly she thinks the infection rate is currently higher in Scotland but she also looks to have some fundamental concerns about some of the messages that appear to be emanating from down south. 

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52574427



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indiana wrote:

Nicola Sturgeon has had a few things ro say. She seems on a rather different page to Boris. While her preference is to move together, she indicates that Scotland could certainly go down a more cautious route.

Partly she thinks the infection rate is currently higher in Scotland but she also looks to have some fundamental concerns about some of the messages that appear to be emanating from down south. 

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52574427


I tweeted something similar a short while ago.  What she was saying is that "she won't be pressured into easing lock down ..." which suggests to me there may be some tension between the Scottish Parliament and Nş 10 Downing Street as to what the policy will be going forwards.



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We do though have to be careful to not delay any easing and learn more from other countries if we are to keep a solid 2nd place in the total deaths league.

For now we retain a higher base than others from which to push figures up from again. But the current lockdown conditions have been eating into the various daily figures and much more extention risks figures dropping much more to say Italy and Spain levels with less folk being in a position to infect others. 

We were clever at the start by not using the available evidence to act earlier and get below others' curves.



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In a nutshell, relaxing the lock down now would be nuts.

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indiana wrote:

We do though have to be careful to not delay any easing and learn more from other countries if we are to keep a solid 2nd place in the total deaths league.

For now we retain a higher base than others from which to push figures up from again. But the current lockdown conditions have been eating into the various daily figures and much more extention risks figures dropping much more to say Italy and Spain levels with less folk being in a position to infect others. 

We were clever at the start by not using the available evidence to act earlier and get below others' curves.


Disgraceful that we have the dubious honour of the second highest death rate in the world - there were/are plenty of opportunities to learn from those  2-3  ahead of us in tackling the virus as Indiana points out.

As has been frequently discussed, what the UK needs as we come out of lockdown is: testing, contact tracing and isolation to keep R below 1, coupled with enforcing a 14 day quarantine period for those flying into the UK. It's not rocket science cry

But DW wink sure Boris has a plan in case of a second wave (which could be bigger than the first if coincides with winter) allegedly that's what the Nightingale hospital has really been set up for........

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ta5MQNPhhhA Why a second wave of corona virus could be even worse than the first



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Dumbest comment on one of the "forums" where I have been discussing virus issues and the government/media response. This discussion was about the validity of comparing death rates between countries.

"BBC is biased and keeps lying to us by trying to say that the UK is a country. They can't be honest and tell us that the UK is actually made up of two countries, England and Scotland".

I kid you not people. There really are some complete morons out there.

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Bob in Spain wrote:

Dumbest comment on one of the "forums" where I have been discussing virus issues and the government/media response. This discussion was about the validity of comparing death rates between countries.

"BBC is biased and keeps lying to us by trying to say that the UK is a country. They can't be honest and tell us that the UK is actually made up of two countries, England and Scotland".

I kid you not people. There really are some complete morons out there.


 Right well you know that person doesn't come from Wales or (Northern) Ireland at least! biggrinbiggrin



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We have customers in Bulgaria for work and they have already come out of lockdown.
They are totally surprised by how they have handled the crisis.
However they believe they have substantially under reported cases and deaths.
Their health service is poor, but they have a very young community within the main cities and very few BAME nationals in comparison to other countries.
Also they had a severe flu epidemic, just before the onset and were effectively in lockdown

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paulisi wrote:

We have customers in Bulgaria for work and they have already come out of lockdown.
They are totally surprised by how they have handled the crisis.
However they believe they have substantially under reported cases and deaths.
Their health service is poor, but they have a very young community within the main cities and very few BAME nationals in comparison to other countries.
Also they had a severe flu epidemic, just before the onset and were effectively in lockdown


 One of my colleagues is Bulgarian and she went back to Bulgaria before lockdown as she felt she would be better there than in London. Proven correct. 

Another colleague is Vietnamese/Polish background and went back to Poland, ditto above.

And a third is French and went home but then came back to London as she feels safer here. 



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