I am no expert and dont always believe rags like the Mail, but this graph seems to lay out the growth rates of the virus in different countries well and shows how most countries (Japan seems the exception) are on the same path as Italy - in essence, the UK will be where Italy is now in 2 weeks time

i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/03/10/14/25777764-8095299-Professor_Mark_Handley_at_University_College_London_compared_the-a-74_1583849366756.jpg

Peter too wrote:

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I would imagine the WTA would no longer insist that points for mandatory and grand slams be included if those events are cancelled. Players could then include results from other events in their 16. They may even reduce the number of events that count to less than 16 if the number of events is seriously depleted. Alternatively they could just freeze rankings until the virus runs its course.

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The first bit is what will no doubt automatically happen, as the OER rankings site suggests in its live 23/03 rankings. No event, no points including no zero pointers, with best non counters coming into play to replace any IW  counters from last year. 

The real question further down the line is yes what further adjustments may be made and when if quite a number of mandatories, and events generally, are cancelled. 

indiana wrote:

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HarryGem wrote:

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The next few weeks are goign to be key. Whilst I note the organisers of Indian Wells have not completely ruled out staging the competition later in the year it is hard to see where it might fit into the schedule.

Also difficult to get away from the whole ranking system being completely compromised. If players are unable to even try and defend ranking points gained last year because of this then some will be seriously disadvantaged.

Even at the lower levels of the game I see all the ITF tournaments in Israel have now been cancelled for this month to add to those in China, Japan and Italy.

Right now there must be a possibilty that Miami, Charleston and Stuttgart will be cancelled or played behind closed doors on the women's side of the game.

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I wouldn't say that the rankings system is anything like "completely compromised" in the short term. All these points not able to be defended had to come off anyway, and anyone could have won big points this year, although I guess some players have their favourite tournaments. The rankings will still be based on the last 12 months' tournaments played.

But yes there will be a much bigger issue if fewer and fewer opportunities to accumulate points, particularly in the biggest tournanents.

Then again, the rankings system effects should hardly be up there in the priority of considerations. 

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 Short term no but, medium to long term it surely will be unless tournaments are played without spectators. Depends of course on how things progress but there is a possibility the whole European clay court season could be disrupted. The spread of the virus could well take any tournament organisation out of the hands of the WTA and ITF.  A very worse case scenario could see the only clay court WTA tournament in April being in Bogota and the only one in May being in Rabat. If, and I acknowledge it is a big if, that were to happen then the whole ranking system becomes a farce.

Of course as you rightly say rankings is the least of everyone's concerns.

Oakland2002 wrote:

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indiana wrote:

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JonH comes home wrote:

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I am no expert and dont always believe rags like the Mail, but this graph seems to lay out the growth rates of the virus in different countries well and shows how most countries (Japan seems the exception) are on the same path as Italy - in essence, the UK will be where Italy is now in 2 weeks time

i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/03/10/14/25777764-8095299-Professor_Mark_Handley_at_University_College_London_compared_the-a-74_1583849366756.jpg

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Maybe. A fair chance but not a given. 

We shall see soon enough if these countries 9 to 13.5 days behind Italy continue to follow Italy's exponential rate of growth or whether some, with varied advice and restrictions, diverge somewhat. 

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The statistical modelling has been spot on so far and is what the NHS is preparing for. The challenge is ITU beds and keeping staff healthy to treat patients planning and working intelligently to do this   

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 What has Japan done differently?

Rome likely to be cancelled, Barcelona and Madrid open in doubt (its not that bad up north, is worse in Madrid and Valencia/Alicante (Bob in Spain)). Some players (Wawrinka) choosing ATP 250 in Budapest over these Masters Series/500

South Korea, testing per 1 million inhabitants was > 3,500 as soon as the outbreak took hold - AND CRUCIALLY - before the peak of their outbreak occurred. They didn't wait for a spike as IT aly did to massivey ramp up their testing
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Italy, France, USA during the same period of their outbreak was between 220-320.
Even now, Italy is only testing at 826 per 1M inhabitants.

Figures for the UK for 8th March were 347 tests per 1M inhabitants.

If we make prophylactic tests at the South Korean rate we would expect to have

We also need to learn to accept the expert advice with the humility and seriousness of the Koreans and Japanese, and do as instructed with diligence and rigour. I don't see that happening here though.

Mass gatherings should not be cancelled for the (mostly) healthy adults that will attend them, but because of the more vulnerable people who will suffer if those attendees become a vector.

The final number of deaths will depend on how everyone behaves with regards to reducing the total number of vectors (virus infected people with sufficiently healthy immune systems to feel no effects), and the range and exposure of each of those vectors.

This is why schools should be closed temporarily, even though children seem to be less fatally affected by the virus, they are high-risk contamination and transmission vectors.
Large crowds, and thus sports follow a similar common good, and take a hiatus.

Korea, Japan & Singapore accepted this as a necessary sacrifice.

Will we?
Full disclosure: I am permanently severely immune-compromised and thus very high risk, despite not being old, so I do have a particularly vested interest.

"Events are being cancelled in Barcelona" then proceeds to mention the events in Valencia being cancelled.

Don't worry Michael D I'll be first to know if/when tennis related events and tournaments in Spain/Barcelona are cancelled, postponed etc. Got that covered