Coronavirus - tennis related wef 4th May

Sim · County player

Coronavirus - tennis related wef 4th May

The Optimist · ATP qualifying

RE: Coronavirus

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Italy has had a massive jump in deaths today , fatality rate up o near 5 percent.

Michael D · All-time great

This is the tracker that I use because it is visually very clear. It validates with the John Hopkins website.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Oakland2002 · All-time great

The best quality data for transparency and quality is the South Korean data 7300 cases 50 deaths. Lots of tests done (which isnt clear from the chart)

Worst case UK planning for 80% pop infected and 600,000 deaths. I can see hospitals cancelling elective work next week to get the cancer and other stuff done, shift back log.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Indian Wells tournament cancelled.

Michael D · All-time great

Some scathing comments - there has been one case in the Coachella valley where the tournament is held - but there it is. I imagine the main tours could now be very sporadic for the next few months.

www.atptour.com/en/news/bnp-paribas-open-will-not-be-held-a-this-time

Oakland2002 · All-time great

The concern is very real particularly for the elderly, those with pre-existing chest, heart conditions or immunosupressed. If people are sensible re self isolation and minimising spread it buys time and allows planning to evolve into process.

Looking at South Korea 7300 cases 50 deaths looking at 0.68% mortality. A very significant figure but takes you down to 460k mortality assuming a population of 70 million. Hopefully we will do better, got to be honest the earlier we minimise exposure the more time we will have to find solutions. A wise move by the ATP, many of the fans would be in the at risk group.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

I have to say my level of concern rose over the weekend, I can see this week ahead ratcheting in terms of response.

My Dad is 80 today, mum is 78, so I worry very much for them although both or healthy. My wife had cancer 4 years ago, and chemo etc, irrationally probably i worry that she is fully recovered in terms of immune system strength.
I can see meetings at work already starting to cancel and as a self employed person, income will drop. And my daughter has A levels starting in may, so school and exams being impacted concerns me a lot, and what will happen there in terms of university gradings etc. My sister in law is a gp and she is most worried about my parents.

No panic, on any front, but it is concerning and, as said, the next week or two will see a ratchet up I feel.

Miriambee · Futures level

Indian Wells cancelled, and

at this late notice.

Babfive · Satellite level

We've been told that if A level exams can't go ahead there should be enough evidence (mocked etc) for teacher assessments to be accepted by the exam boards.

My parents are 87 and 93 and their retirement flats have already initiated some extra precautions for visitors.

As a teacher, I am wondering whether it will get as far as closing all schools.

Obviously there will be a lot of uncertainty in the coming weeks. I just hope any cancellations on the Itf your come in time to stop needless and expensive travel ( I guess a lot of players had already flown to California for Indian Wells). Presumably, some countries like Italy, China and South Korea will be the first to consider cancellations.

emmsie69 · Top national player

Schools should not be closed, children seem relatively safe from this virus and it may benefit them to get it while young in the same way its best to get chickenpox when young. We are also then faces with fit and healthy children out and about all day rather than contained in schools for most of the day. Far better for families and friends to limit contact with their elderly friends and relatives.

-- Edited by emmsie69 on Monday 9th of March 2020 07:20:25 AM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Oakland2002 wrote:
The concern is very real particularly for the elderly, those with pre-existing chest, heart conditions or immunosupressed. If people are sensible re self isolation and minimising spread it buys time and allows planning to evolve into process.

Looking at South Korea 7300 cases 50 deaths looking at 0.68% mortality. A very significant figure but takes you down to 460k mortality assuming a population of 70 million. Hopefully we will do better, got to be honest the earlier we minimise exposure the more time we will have to find solutions. A wise move by the ATP, many of the fans would be in the at risk group.

Oakie, unless I'm mistaken, based on your numbers, your 460k is assuming everyone catches the disease, which can't be right....there's never going to be a 100% infection rate (just see China)

Status Quo · Intermediate Club Player

Transmissibility based on 1918 Spanish flu and 1968 Hong Kong Flu would be expected to reach somewhere between 40 and 55% of the global population - if, and after, it reaches a critical threshold where it can not been contained.

Of course the world is a lot smaller than it was in those days, and the ability for a disease to move between continents all the greater.

Mortality looks variable. in 1918 Iran had a very high mortality rate, and it does so again. Multiple genetic factors appear to make Iranian descendants more susceptible to these things (but historically more resistant to things like malaria and cholera, for instance).
I would put faith in the German, French & Italian numbers, where, for the most parts, they have tested reasonably sufficiently from the start, not denied any outbreak for political expediency, and seem to have reported all known cases.

Many nations, (e.g. India, USA, Turkey) are down playing their exposure because their leaders think it makes them personally look bad. India's >1B people were reporting 1 known case. Very easy to have a low official infection rate if you don't test people that might add to that number, or if you haven't taken the threat seriously enough to create sufficient testing kits, or can't provide said kits - as in California and all over the USA, where even the Washington State nursing home with >20 cases still hasn't had all it's residents tested because of lack of availability.

But, counter-measures, planning and response should also be better.
I say should, if. for example, you live in Florida, and your Congressman was on the floor of the House in a WWI gas mark last week performatively mocking the whole idea as money was being voted on to combat the outbreak, and where talk radio hosts call it all a hoax and tell you to go to work as the common cold is worse, then you might be in trouble.
Oh, and that Congressman, Matt Gaetz, well yesterday he was sending 'thoughts and prayers' to the families of the first people that died from COVID-19 in his district.

What's your MP like, your council? Can our politicians get their act together and provide the healthcare professionals the resources they need to take best intensive and prophylactic care of the country?
We'll find out.

I'll be very surprised if at least a few months of the tours are not written of completely. ATP/WTA don't have the power that, say, a Serie A does in Italy, where they can just ignore the Governments orders and the public will cheer them on for doing so.

junior · Intermediate Club Player

to try and keep this away from the politics surrounding, this might be an interesting one, can't remember that many pro tournaments cancelled in my time (except futures which are every other week). To see how they handle this, they are likely to move it to another week, if so which one? Will this then move the whole tour calendar back a week, why so late to announce it? Will there be reimbursement of travel fares or will it be claimed as a natural disaster/act of god type thing? And the loss of earnings for the week for the players? Even though most other sports are still playing albeit closed doors. We shall see

-- Edited by junior on Monday 9th of March 2020 05:25:10 PM