General Election - who did you vote for ?

indiana · Tennis legend

General Election - who did you vote for ?

Vandenburg · Futures level

We are seeing a re-mapping of geography.

The average age of a Tory voter has been steadily increasing over the last decades, in other words, their core vote was dying off literally. They needed a new vote, so have no taken the working class vote.

Post war european politics has always been about right versus left, but UK was largely different, based on class (Labour, working class) versus Tory (lower middle, middle, and upper middle and upper classes). I feel now UK has finally moved on to the european style of politics of right versus left.

Two case examples:
Mansfield, old mining town, very working class, very poor education, a traditional labour hot spot- now a tory safe seat.
Canterbury, Kent, a lovely idyllic southern cathedral city, a usual Tory safe seat, is now Labour.
Lib dems, seeing 25% swings in Surrey! Surrey usually seen as the blueist place on earth.

The big metropolitan cities also paint a new story. Not just London. These areas see a big influx of educated people, liberal minded, mainly for work. And the likes, of London, Manchester etc are seeing Tories becoming extinct. Also, thanks the Blair era, we are now seeing a demographic between 30-50 that are 40% University educated and liberal minded.

The new shift will be , the major cities and other affluent areas, will become labour lib, and tories will take over the rural areas and working class smaller towns.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Vandenburg wrote:
We are seeing a re-mapping of geography.

The average age of a Tory voter has been steadily increasing over the last decades, in other words, their core vote was dying off literally. They needed a new vote, so have no taken the working class vote.

Post war european politics has always been about right versus left, but UK was largely different, based on class (Labour, working class) versus Tory (lower middle, middle, and upper middle and upper classes). I feel now UK has finally moved on to the european style of politics of right versus left.

Two case examples:
Mansfield, old mining town, very working class, very poor education, a traditional labour hot spot- now a tory safe seat.
Canterbury, Kent, a lovely idyllic southern cathedral city, a usual Tory safe seat, is now Labour.
Lib dems, seeing 25% swings in Surrey! Surrey usually seen as the blueist place on earth.

The big metropolitan cities also paint a new story. Not just London. These areas see a big influx of educated people, liberal minded, mainly for work. And the likes, of London, Manchester etc are seeing Tories becoming extinct. Also, thanks the Blair era, we are now seeing a demographic between 30-50 that are 40% University educated and liberal minded.

The new shift will be , the major cities and other affluent areas, will become labour lib, and tories will take over the rural areas and working class smaller towns.

Saw this map on Twitter yesterday. I haven't verified its accuracy but it purports to shows voting results in different age groups. Quite staggeringly, in the 18-24 age group the Tories would have been literally wiped out, not winning a single seat.

Edit

Since posting this, I have discovered that this is an old chart of (I think) voting intentions as stated back in Sept 2018 and not based on the recent election. It is from what I consider to be a reliable source - Election Maps UK - but out of context for this election.

Apologies if I inadvertently gave the wrong impression.

Voting Map by Age.jpg

-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Sunday 15th of December 2019 11:41:57 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

The One Nation Conservative Party disbelief

Status Quo · Intermediate Club Player

The urban/rural divide and all the philosophical marks of identity and inviolable baggage that each side brings with that, and attempts to hold over the other in turn, is exactly the wedge that has been so infinitely exploited to utterly divide America.
The arguments are now so dug in and entrenched that you effectively have two alien tribes. Each of which routinely excuse any manner of immorality or corruption for their own because their side did it, so it can't be wrong, or, at least, can't be seen or acknowledged as wrong because it appears to imply the righteousness of the other tribe. The lack of apology eor what in times past would have been mandated by shame and public opinion is now seen as a virtue to be signaled and exploited to the respective bases. Offending the other tribe is almost the sole point by now, exceeding any pretense to be proving the efficacy of ones argument or actions.
Each then, of course, goes into performative pearl-clutching paroxysms when the other tribe does those same things.
Look forward to more of that here now. The prorogation debacle and election have already accelerated it.

But, more pertinently to this forum. The unrepresentative nature of our members in this forum in terms of Brext and the political landscape probably reflects why tennis is very much a waning struggling sport in Britain today.
To be crude, and generalise to be slightly more brief,perhaps tennis is mostly an elitist liberal sport for the formally educated, and is primarily only enjoyed and played by the same. Perhaps this partly explains Mr. Evans and Mr. Kyrgios' respective popularity. From the 'wrong side of the tracks' to the 'Home Counties set' the 'stuffy elites', and constantly rubbing the authoritiru the wrong way. A bit of grit in the oyster.
But still British tenns shows no sign of wanting to change, it just Henmans you.

-- Edited by Status Quo on Sunday 15th of December 2019 07:09:31 PM

Shhh · Challenger level

An interesting chart Bob, its all the old people fault ruining it for the young and all that. How can an independant body gain information such as that within a day or two of the election?

indiana · Tennis legend

Shhh wrote:
An interesting chart Bob, its all the old people fault ruining it for the young and all that. How can an independant body gain information such as that within a day or two of the election?

I'd assume that their charts come from the large exit poll which I think almost immediately had such as constiuency and age breakdowns available, and I am guessing ages within constituencies too.

So, if so, no doubt not perfect ( the exit poll was not perfect re the number of constituencies won ) but strongly indicative if they have correctly combined ages and constituencies from the poll.

Have they said what their source is, Bob?

Status Quo · Intermediate Club Player

indiana wrote:
Shhh wrote:
An interesting chart Bob, its all the old people fault ruining it for the young and all that. How can an independant body gain information such as that within a day or two of the election?
I'd assume that their charts come from the large exit poll which I think almost immediately had such as constiuency and age breakdowns available, and I am guessing ages within constituencies too.
So, if so, no doubt not perfect ( the exit poll was not perfect re the number of constituencies won ) but strongly indicative if they have correctly combined ages and constituencies from the poll.
Have they said what their source is, Bob?

Another analysis. An example of standard Data Science methodology is at the very end.
https://www.dataprax.is/tory-landslide-progressives-split

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
Shhh wrote:
An interesting chart Bob, its all the old people fault ruining it for the young and all that. How can an independant body gain information such as that within a day or two of the election?
I'd assume that their charts come from the large exit poll which I think almost immediately had such as constiuency and age breakdowns available, and I am guessing ages within constituencies too.
So, if so, no doubt not perfect ( the exit poll was not perfect re the number of constituencies won ) but strongly indicative if they have correctly combined ages and constituencies from the poll.
Have they said what their source is, Bob?

On the chart itself it quotes Election Maps UK as the source which is normally very reliable.

I have done some checking since posting and it appears this is a poll from Sept 2018 and not from the results of the 2019 election. Apologies for not "fact checking" myself before posting.

-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Sunday 15th of December 2019 11:27:41 PM

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Shhh wrote:
An interesting chart Bob, its all the old people fault ruining it for the young and all that. How can an independant body gain information such as that within a day or two of the election?

My mistake Shhh. I have since checked and apparently this is from Sept 2018 on Election Maps UK.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1205821623909175297

Sorry for not fact checking first. It seems I was not the only one who made that mistake on Twitter.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

One thing I think is most stunning is not the North South divide but the North South Switch. Lets cast our minds back 20 or 30 years, can you imagine any constituency in much of the North (derbyshire and above) that was Tory? And can you imagine anywhere in London that was Labour? And now look at it. A complete reversal. I think that is the most amazing aspect of where we are right now. Wow

Shhh · Challenger level

Bob in Spain wrote:
Shhh wrote:
An interesting chart Bob, its all the old people fault ruining it for the young and all that. How can an independant body gain information such as that within a day or two of the election?
My mistake Shhh. I have since checked and apparently this is from Sept 2018 on Election Maps UK.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1205821623909175297
Sorry for not fact checking first. It seems I was not the only one who made that mistake on Twitter.

No need to apologise Bob, my Spider senses instantly told me it wasn't true but I'll be honest and say I would not have the foggiest what the breakdown would factually be. I think what irks me most is that this is indeed flying around Twitter and as if it fits what your perception is, its taken as fact. This happens on both sides of course, I am not going to argue what a sincere bunch those huggable Tories are on here. I think now surely the myth that only the richest 1% voted Tory would have been dispelled? Or that it was only old people, or only smug middle aged people? This still seems to be whats put out there though.

In 2017 the Tories had led the country through 8 years of austerity. Brexit was deadlocked. Mrs May was proving to be an inept leader and she led an appalling election campaign. Corbyn still lost the election, even in those circumstances, he LOST. Yet for some reason he and his supporters celebrated it as a victory and carried on acting that way (Ohhhhh Jeremy Corbynnnnn) They seemed to think they were the uncrowned Government or something when perhaps they should have been learning the lessons of why they LOST to such a pathetic, inept, split bunch of Conservatives.

I guess theres the miss-information put out around social media from all political parties being believed that gets me. What I find astounding though is that the political parties actually seem to believe it themselves because they put it there? I just cannot figure that one???

Oakland2002 · All-time great

An exhausting business, the conservatives did a very effective job of idea logically cleansing their party in the run up to the election and minimising exposure of their fools during the later. Also managed the last 10 days beautifully, maintained focus and scrutiny on Labours antisemitism, managed and reflected negativity on social media as it emerged. In the thick of it from beginning to end! Personally outcome but concede it was a great jarb.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

OK. Given my faux pas with the last maps, these ones are correct for the GE2019 according to Election Maps UK and clearly show the age divide in politics.

If only 18-24 year olds voted: Lab Majority of 438

twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1208711500065574912

If only Over 65 year olds voted: Tory Majority of 474

twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1208717791454519296

Read somewhere today, can't remember where, but apparently the age threshold where a person becomes more likely to vote Tory than Labour is 39 years old.

Not trying to score any political or "ageist" points here, just passing on info.

Jajon · Strong Club Player

With old age comes wisdom x

Or dementia x

Makes you think