The road to the Australian Open

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

The road to the Australian Open

mbturner · Lower Club Player

According to the players' schedules on Live-Tennis.eu, Heather is playing in Limoges and I would think she would be in the main draw. Isn't that too late to influence the AO main draw?

-- Edited by mbturner on Thursday 5th of December 2019 03:56:38 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

mbturner wrote:
According to the players' schedules on Live-Tennis.eu, Heather is playing in Limoges and I would think she would be in the main draw. Isn't that too late to influence the AO main draw?

-- Edited by mbturner on Thursday 5th of December 2019 03:28:37 PM

Yes, too late for the Aus Open MD list - 09/12 rankings. The relevant qualifying list rankings are these of 23/12.

mbturner · Lower Club Player

I can't help feeling that if she wasn't carrying an injury, Heather called a halt to the season too early. Was she more likely to return next year in the form of a couple of magic weeks or the form of the last three years?

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

So, as emmsie pointed out on the Solapur W25 thread, Naiktha and Marcinkevica reaching the semi final will both see them pass Katie S in the rankings, as will Eikeri's losing QF attempt, as her net gain of 4 points will put her on 248 points, 1 ahead of Katie. I don't think there's anyone playing W15s this week that can pass Katie, and next week there is only Papamichail (who Emma beat easily, and is now on a 7 match losing streak) in Pune W25 that can pass her - she'll need to make the final to do that, which is probably unlikely given her last couple of months.

There are a few in the Dubai 100k+H Q list who could still pass Katie (and Naiktha for that matter), but they'll need to come through quals and then win a match, or more likely, 2 matches in the main draw, which will also mean they'll more than likely need to beat a top 100 seed to do that to reach the QF as it's a very strong field and the 8th seed is #94.

Still Limoges 125k the week after which could influence the AO quals, but that's another strong field, so the only players that could affect things is if the 3 French players ranked between 250-280 get MDWC/QWCs and have some success.

ROSAMUND · Futures level

Confirmed 9th December rankings that Heather is now ranked103 with Kanepi 101. Allowing for qualifiers and wild cards if you then added the PR's who are eligible the cut off point into the main draw would be in the nineties somewhere. Additionally I seem to remember at the 2019 Aussie Open, Maria Sakkari having a virtual walkover over a player who had not played for 18 months and think got in via a PR.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

I think it's hard to see Heather getting in to the main draw directly, and equally as hard not to see Naiktha getting in qualifying now, so I think this 'road' basically comes down to whether Katie S sneaks into quals or not. She was 248 in yesterdays rankings, and obviously the worse those around her do, the better. Papamichail lost again today in Pune, so nobody in the Pune W25 field can pass her now, so it's all about Dubai W100 this week (there is Limoges 125k next week, where yet to be announced MDWC / QWC could be in the mix):

Garcia Perez - qualified. Started the week on 230 points to Katie's 247, lowest counter is 5, so she needs 22 or 23 points to move past Katie. 6 points for quals + 14 for a R1 win would only be 20, so she needs to reach the QF here - plays Bolkvadze in R1 later today.

Molinaro - qualified. On 202 points, has a 1 point counter that she can replace, needs a semi final to pass Katie which you'd think would be very unlikely.

Snigur - qualified. On 158 points, but has only played 10 events, would need to make the final here, which again is unlikely, even if the bookies have her favourite to beat the far higher ranked (and experienced) Wickmayer later today.

There is another Ukrainian even further down who has also qualified, but she would need the title, so I'll risk not even mentioning her name.

the addict · Tennis legend

Snigur must be in the running for a WC of some sort, don't you think ?

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
Snigur must be in the running for a WC of some sort, don't you think ?

For the AO? I don't think so personally. She'll not get a MDWC because of that reciprocal arrangement they have with the US and France, and Han Na-Lae has one for her Asia Pacific WC playoff win the other day, leaving just 5 for Aussies / Sharapova, so it would be a QWC at best. They pretty much always give their most recent junior winner a QWC, if it's needed, so that'll be Clara Tauson (just outside the cut off at 271), and they've already given young Diane Parry a QWC (as part of another arrangement with France), so I'd be surprised if 3 of their 9 QWCs were non Aussie youngsters.

If she can get in and around the top 200 by late June then she'll be a decent shout for a Wimbledon MDWC, which would be so much better than handing 5 back like last year. On a different note, given the current landscape, GB would be by far the biggest beneficiaries of being in that grand slam agreement, but of course it's down to the AELTC rather than the LTA, so will never happen.

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Tuesday 10th of December 2019 11:52:36 AM

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Ace Ventura wrote:
I think it's hard to see Heather getting in to the main draw directly, and equally as hard not to see Naiktha getting in qualifying now, so I think this 'road' basically comes down to whether Katie S sneaks into quals or not. She was 248 in yesterdays rankings, and obviously the worse those around her do, the better. Papamichail lost again today in Pune, so nobody in the Pune W25 field can pass her now, so it's all about Dubai W100 this week (there is Limoges 125k next week, where yet to be announced MDWC / QWC could be in the mix):

Garcia Perez - qualified. Started the week on 230 points to Katie's 247, lowest counter is 5, so she needs 22 or 23 points to move past Katie. 6 points for quals + 14 for a R1 win would only be 20, so she needs to reach the QF here - plays Bolkvadze in R1 later today.

Molinaro - qualified. On 202 points, has a 1 point counter that she can replace, needs a semi final to pass Katie which you'd think would be very unlikely.

Snigur - qualified. On 158 points, but has only played 10 events, would need to make the final here, which again is unlikely, even if the bookies have her favourite to beat the far higher ranked (and experienced) Wickmayer later today.

There is another Ukrainian even further down who has also qualified, but she would need the title, so I'll risk not even mentioning her name.

Snigur won fairly comfortably, but the other 3 are out, so it's just Snigur and potential Limoges WCs that can pass Katie now, but still an awful lot of work to do for Daria this week. I saw bits of her match with Wickmayer and if anyone caught any of her Wimbledon jr run, her serve hasn't really improved from what I saw, although she seems to be progressing pretty well anyway.

This may well be all in vain for Katie anyway. Naomi B did sneak in to qualifying mid 250's last year, but it will all depend on withdrawals and players using PR for the main draw, and quals, which determines the cut off - Lopatetska and Thandi (that I know of) plan to use it for quals, and there'll be a fair few for the main draw as well, so it'll definitely be a waiting game, but I personally don't think 248 will be good enough this year. Time will tell though.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

https://www.tennisforum.com/threads/the-race-to-aus-open-main-draw.1358733/page-2

I don't know how official that is, but according to post 28 on that thread, there are 5 using their PR to enter the main draw (including Katie B), so 1-100, bar Azarenka, are in directly, and the 5 PR's make up the 104 direct acceptances.

PR's:
CiCi Bellis (USA, 44),
Vera Zvonareva (Russia, 78),
Katie Boulter (GB, 85)
Katerina Bondarenko (Ukraine, 85)
Anna-Karolina Shmeidlova (Slovakia, 93)

Alts:
101 Kaia Kanepi
102 IC Begu
103 Heather Watson
104 Margarita Gaparyan
105 Anna Kalinskaya
106 Nao Hibino

So Kanepi's W15 triumph wasn't enough as it stands to get in, and with the half pay cheque rule becoming more known and utilised, there's no guarantee that she will, although there probably is a fair chance that there'll be one withdrawal. Heather may still have a chance as I thought she may be one or two places lower down the alt list, but it's still a big ask for 3 to withdraw and completely give up their pay cheque, especially when there ended up being SIX female LL's at the most recent grand slam (including a delayed withdrawal from Schmeidlova who had surgery just after Wimbledon and was never in contention for the US open...), but like Katie S (in terms of the qualifying cut off), it'll be a waiting game.

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Wednesday 11th of December 2019 12:09:10 AM

emmsie69 · ATP level

On the plus side Australia is a long way to go so there is a higher chance that some won't bother.

seagull · Hall of fame

Andy Murray is not on initial Aus Open entry list using his PR?

SO he either has a wild card (strange when he could have used PR to get in), or he isn't playing.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

emmsie69 wrote:
On the plus side Australia is a long way to go so there is a higher chance that some won't bother.

Yes, but they now get all their travel paid, don't they? Even for qualis? (And provide SO many perks and fun things). The Australian Open has made a huge push precisely for that reason, to stop people thinking it's not worthwhile.

Back in 2015, they posted:

This year, the travel stipends total about $1,088,000, with $1,979 going to each player, including qualifiers. Each receives $300 per night for a hotel and $60 per day for meals. Tournament officials said the stipends and per diems were expected to rise next year.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Fair play to Daria Snigur - she has beaten Mladenovic 6-3 7-6 to reach the Dubai final, and is now 237 in the live rankings, simultaneously pushing Katie S out to 249. She'll have a decent chance of making quals with that ranking (Snigur) but she'll more than secure if it she can beat Ana Bogdan in tomorrow's final.

Still no word on the Limoges 125k QWCs, although 5 of the 6 MDWCs have been announced, and all of them are comfortably inside the top 200, so won't affect the Q cut off.