Brexit

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Brexit

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
So, the report from the Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration has confirmed what an utter pig's ear Priti Patel is making of dealing with immigrants arriving across the Channel.

The UK's own government site gives the numbers as follows:

"There were 28,526 people detected arriving on small boats in the calendar year 2021. This compares with 8,466 in 2020, 1,843 in 2019 and 299 in 2018".

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-march-2022/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-march-2022

The figures for this year are set to be even higher, with figures showing about 15,000 arrivals already after only 6 months

Of course, the not-so-delicious irony of this is that the huge increase is basically a result of Brexit

As part of the EU, we were part of the Dublin Agreement which was EU law that imposed a duty on the first receiving country to deal with the immigrant arrivals.

Hence, we only had a few hundred arrivals.

Now we are no longer part of the Dublin Agreement, we are not protected in any way, there is no international law that says the same, and so we have no rights to insist that the immigrants are dealt with in the country where they first arrived, and no political clout or goodwill to try and cajole other countries into doing the same.

And so there will be about 30,000 arriving this year

And, yet, Brexit was supposed to stop irregular immigration????

Want an even more remarkable stat ?

The Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration was appointed in March 2021. In that time, he has not been afforded the opportunity to meet Priti Patel even once.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1550066344724516865

"I find it frustrating that I've not met her... I think the home secretary should speak to me"

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

You're right, Bob.

But that's a failure of government (which, to be honest, I don't think anyone in their right mind can deny - on many levels). And can be changed.

The huge rise in irregular immigration following our loss of legal protection as a country in Europe is a 'failure' of Brexit - well, a consequence - which is a bigger problem.

christ · Futures qualifying

To be completely honest I have no idea what Brexit was supposed to do, and even more I don't care.

But as regards immigration, (rightly or wrongly) I think Brexit was supposed to reduce _all_ immigration: i.e. the total of regular and irregular immigration. Until we have figures for the combination, then worrying about just one aspect of immigration seems to me to be sort of missing the point. (e.g if regular immigration has gone down by a million, a few tens of thousands of irregulars can be more easily borne).

On a related topic: how long do we think that it will be before "Remainers" stop "I told you so"-ing, and understand that we have left Europe? It is entirely possible that they were right, and that we shouldn't have left, but the fact is that we have and therefore have to get with the programme and make the best of a bad job. I am fed up to the back teeth with politicians (and others) telling me how we were conned, and that we shouldn't have done this, and we were duped into doing that, and if they had been in charge we would have done things differently: but we are here now, and we need a strategy to get out of the mess that we are in, not just wallowing in moaning about how we shouldn't be here.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

It's interesting points but I think Brexit was supposed to reduce unwanted immigration, even more than all immigration.

That may have equated to an overall reduction too but nearly all Brexit supporters accept that immigration is obviously needed - but in specific areas and controlled. Which is a reasonable argument (even if I don't necessarily agree with it).

The problem with the figures is that, for many Brexit-ers, and indeed Remain-ers, it's the very 'worst' sort of immigration that has sky-rocketed. And it was this immigration that made (and makes) the headlines all the time and that was one of the main focuses of taking back sovereignty.

And I agree, both parties have to accept Brexit as a reality otherwise nothing will move forward.

This applies to the Tories who seem to refuse to accept that there could be anything negative about Brexit - and hence refuse to address some major problems - when it's obvious that both being in the EU and not being has advantages and disadvantages - you've got to be lucid about them both, from the position you're in

It also applies to the Labour party, although they've moved away from openly querying Brexit

But the fact that we now have a rather acute labour shortage in many areas but have soaring boat arrivals (who have no right to work, even if they are skilled) seems rather a*se about face, given what was promised

Jajon · Strong Club Player

I mean we could do what other countries do and allow the people who are waiting for their asylum case to be heard to work. If their case flops, bye, if theyre successful (like about 80% are), well happy days, theyre already in a job!

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Jajon wrote:
I mean we could do what other countries do and allow the people who are waiting for their asylum case to be heard to work. If their case flops, bye, if theyre successful (like about 80% are), well happy days, theyre already in a job!

Definitely- we treat asylum seekers like criminals. Even if someone is here to better themselves economically, my view is why not, good for them. Dont let them scrounge but let them give it a go.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

The chemicals industry used to be regulated by EU Reach - so that if you imported or manufactured chemicals, the substance had to registered, and approved. This approval was accepted throughout the EU. It cost our companies about £0.5 billion to get in compliance.

But as part of 'getting Brexit done', Johnson failed to ensure reciprocity for the data base (which would have been very easy and was requested numerous times by the UK chemical industry)

So then the Ministry realised that the UK authorities had no access to any data and had no idea what company was doing what with any chemicals in the UK

So they set up UK Reach - basically a giant replica.

Which (a) was always going to cost the chemical companies £1bn, (b) has now been conceded by the Government will cost them at least £2bn, and (c) has (naturally) been hugely delayed - with the deadline already pushed back two years and will probably be at least five, so basically our authorities have no real idea who is importing or manufacturing what chemicals .....

Shhh · Challenger level

There is no smoke without fire.....

twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1558708491103215617/photo/1

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

This is not the 'fault' of Brexit but it is a problem that has come as a consequence of Brexit, and the Ukraine invasion

With seasonal workers from the EU dropping off a cliff (not literally! :smile), and a desperate shortage, farmers have obviously had to look elsewhere.

Ukrainian and Russians would have been one obvious solution but the war has put pay to that

So there have been huge recruitment drives in Indonesia etc, BUT the agents on the ground there are basically taking advantage of people's naivety, poverty and lack of knowledge (unlike the traditional EU workers who knew the ropes) and have left hundreds in debt bondage, working in the UK to pay off debts back home they were forced into for the right to work here

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/revealed-indonesian-workers-on-uk-farm-at-risk-of-debt-bondage/ar-AA10EtVk

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Shhh wrote:
There is no smoke without fire.....

twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1558708491103215617/photo/1

Finally the first of the elusive Brexit benefits becomes apparent biggrin biggrin

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/kent-brewery-hailed-as-brexit-export-champion-has-one-eu-customer-left/ar-AA11rL6s?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3acb467a5fb345d89149d84e38a887a1

A Kent brewery chosen to help champion export opportunities for the government after Brexit has revealed that burdensome customs checks and paperwork have left it with just one remaining customer in the EU.

The Old Dairy Brewery in Kent a Department for International Trade export champion for the south-east appeared in a government video last year promoting the potential to boost Brexit export sales.

However its exports of bottled and keg Kent ale to countries including Italy, Germany and Sweden have slumped since the UK left the EU because of the onerous paperwork.

The brewery now has one European customer, a Berlin pub operator who travels to England by van to pick up the beer. The value of the Kent brewerys annual beer exports have fallen from £600,000 to £2,000.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

So Liz Truss now says that the UK - US trade deal is dead and 'not on the agenda'

www.ft.com/content/1b0e6267-d46e-4eb8-9071-d12532a9abb9

Even though this trade deal was vaunted as an example of one the most important post-Brexit benefits ....

And the Chancellor has refused to publish economic forecast figures

www.bbc.com/news/business-62970803

And the only good news is that many major investments are being made in our big infrastrcuture companies - because they prices are so low, the pound is so weak - which means that all the buyers are foreign - in fact, the big ones this week have all been French

"French buyers snapped up a slew of British assets on Wednesday, from a slice of the UKs biggest telecoms group to a buyout of one of the countrys oldest technology companies, underlining how overseas acquirers are taking advantage of depressed valuations.

Entrepreneur Xavier Niel bought a 2.5 per cent stake in Vodafone; Schneider Electric agreed to buy Aveva for £9.5bn; and Suez moved to buy back its British waste-treatment business for around $2.3bn.

The UK is experiencing relatively high inflation, low investment confidence and a weaker currency, making it an attractive moment for European suitors to pounce on struggling British assets.

A top-25 shareholder in Aveva described the Schneider bid as yet another example of a world-leading UK-listed company whose share price has been smashed to pieces being taken over. Avevas shares have fallen 23 per cent in the past 12 months.....

.... Wednesdays flurry of inbound French interest comes two months after Frances state-backed satellite group Eutelsat announced it was buying OneWeb, the space-based British internet company rescued from bankruptcy by Boris Johnsons government. OneWeb had struggled to raise capital to come to market with its satellite constellation and become a viable standalone business.

In a parallel to Niels investment, French telecoms billionaire Patrick Drahi last year built an 18 per cent stake in former British telecoms monopoly BT, sparking speculation that the veteran dealmaker would ultimately try to wrest full control of the company."

www.ft.com/content/8df0f111-51c8-407e-bea0-0a4f826605b6

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

This 'What UK Thinks' poll now has

Rejoin: 47%
Stay Out: 33%

So if you ignore the don't knows and recalculate

Rejoin: 58.75%
Stay Out: 41.25%

That's a 17.5% margin in favour of rejoin. Not sure I have seen that level of margin before.

twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1578394554906165249

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Sorry for the doom-and-gloom but:

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official independent British forecaster, has reaffirmed its prediction from that Brexit will reduce productivity and UK GDP by 4% compared with what it would have been if we'd remained in the EU.

That means about £100bn p.a in lost output and that the Treasury loses revenues of approx £40bn a year.

According to Reuter's citing of reports, British manufacturing output fell for a third month in a row in September and orders declined for a fourth consecutive month, hurt by falling foreign demand.

"September saw new export business contract at the quickest pace since May 2020, with reports of lower demand from the U.S., the EU and China," S&P Global said.

Trade is about 25% down

The Centre for Economic Policy Research says the currency sharp drop did not bring a corresponding increase in exports and left only imports being dearer, and so pushed up inflation

Red tape has caused international buyer-seller relations to drop by 33% overall

Foreign investment is about 10% lower than back in 2016 (some due to covid but a long way behind other European countries which are now in positive territory)

Several high-level scientists I know have moved to the EU, as worries about their funding (and lack of it) fail to be addressed.

.......