Coup Droit wrote:

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Just on the immigration numbers, Shhh, Bob's summary is rather misleading, I think.

The Times points out that work-related visas have gone up 25% since 2019

BUT in 2019 the UK didn't give work-related visas to EU citizens - they didn't need them

So the large number of EU workers arriving in 2019 aren't counted in that number

So it's saying the number of non-EU work visas has gone up 25% or, more precisely,

2019: non-EU work visas (EU people not counted) = A

2022: All work visas = B

And B is 25% higher than A

But it's not comparing like with like and misses a very large number

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This is true, though I don't think Bob was claiming that it was a like-for-like comparison. Of course, it's a good thing if the visa process has become less restrictive for talented people from outside the EU, though Brexit wasn't a necessary condition for this to happen, Brexit has just forced the government to do this at last to make up for the talent drain back to the EU. I've always thought Brexit wouldn't make much difference to immigration overall apart from changing the mix of countries immigrants come from. Was that worth giving up all the rights Brits had in the EU for? (I don't think so, though I can respect the fact that others might have different views on that)

 

steven wrote:

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Coup Droit wrote:

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Just on the immigration numbers, Shhh, Bob's summary is rather misleading, I think.

The Times points out that work-related visas have gone up 25% since 2019

BUT in 2019 the UK didn't give work-related visas to EU citizens - they didn't need them

So the large number of EU workers arriving in 2019 aren't counted in that number

So it's saying the number of non-EU work visas has gone up 25% or, more precisely,

2019: non-EU work visas (EU people not counted) = A

2022: All work visas = B

And B is 25% higher than A

But it's not comparing like with like and misses a very large number

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This is true, though I don't think Bob was claiming that it was a like-for-like comparison. Of course, it's a good thing if the visa process has become less restrictive for talented people from outside the EU, though Brexit wasn't a necessary condition for this to happen, Brexit has just forced the government to do this at last to make up for the talent drain back to the EU. I've always thought Brexit wouldn't make much difference to immigration overall apart from changing the mix of countries immigrants come from. Was that worth giving up all the rights Brits had in the EU for? (I don't think so, though I can respect the fact that others might have different views on that)

 

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Yes, sorry, I didn't mean Bob's own summary, I meant The Times (although they sort of overlapped) 

But, as you say, they're not like-for-like and that is misleading (hence Shhh's reasonable point that it appears inconsistent with other statements before. But, in fact, it isn't)

 

Coup Droit wrote:

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emmsie69 wrote:

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I think it's incredibly naive to think that phrasing the question differently would change people's attitude. Life is becoming more polarised thanks to SM and particularly Twitter. Look at the reaction to JKR and her GC views. There is no space for nuance. Christ's post in the general election thread is exactly how I feel about Politics. I'm also sick and tired of the negativity, politicians should stop banging on about how awful the alternative is and start focussing on why people should vote for them

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 So you are dismissing decades of research of universities and government policy bureaux?   

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 I think it is a little unfair for picking on emmsie for doing this, when the Prime Minister of the country at the time apparently did the same.

... and it is not a foregone conclusion that he did so through laziness. Despite my poor view of politicians (including Mr Cameron) I believe that he will have listened to a lot of advice before settling on the phraseology of the question: just because you (or other folk that wanted Brexit to fail) think a better phraseology could have been chosen doesn't necessarily make it the case.

I believe that it is possible (although not likely) that one day the Remainers may actually concede that the country actually wanted what they voted for, and that it wasn't actually a colossal mistake that came about through stupidity/ laziness/ ineptitude/ racism/ xenophobia. Similarly it may actually be that the majority of Americans actually wanted what Mr Trump promised, and a majority of Brits (although the election process is a bit more removed) actually like what Mr Johnson brings to the table.

I remain completely unconvinced in the ability of politicians to run a bath, but also consider that it really doesn't make much difference what they do: and social media represents the views of a tiny, tiny, minority magnified beyond all reason by the positive feedback loop that it generates.

Coup Droit wrote:

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christ wrote:

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I think that it is naive to think that all of the non-voters would vote for "your team" as M Macron does: I have always assumed that non-voters would largely split along the same lines as voters, therefore if more people vote the proportion of the result likely remains the same. This is like confirmation bias: assuming if more people vote, your team will win - it is due to ascribing likely reasons for non-voting based on one's own world view.

I think for every voter that didn't vote against Brexit because they couldn't be bothered (or that thought the answer was obvious) there is likely a similar voter that didn't vote for Brexit. Not everyone that sat at home was convinced that Hilary Clinton would win because Mr Trump wouldn't, a lot probably thought that Mr Trump would win without their vote.

There is, however, a difference between those that don't vote through indifference and those that don't vote because they have been discouraged/ barred/ disenfranchised: when poor/ black/ female/ labour voters are discouraged from voting for example. But this is a different situation, and not the one M Macron is apparently addressing.

 

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 Completely agree.

I know you'd hate it - and I could see why  - but I actually think voting should be compulsory. Like paying taxes. 

To avoid exactly the problems you indicate (and other ones). 

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 Yes, that's just what the country needs. ALL of the uninformed and indifferent to play eeny meeny miney mo. What can possibly go wrong?

I know others may interpret things differently but the economic statistics that just came out from the Office of National Statistics are pretty worrying:

Retail sales fell 1.4% in March, far higher than expected

Consumer confidence index from GfK fell by 7 points from -31 to -38 for April

Inflation is practically 7%

It's true that, as Shhh points out, the UK is doing well in manufacturing and was a positive in the numbers. And that's great.

The problem is, though, that manufacturing is only 20% of our economy, with services being the other 80%. And services are being slammed (mainly because they were not covered in the Brexit agreement)

House of Commons Research: "The service industries accounted for 80% of total UK economic output (Gross Value Added) and 82% of employment in April-June 2021."

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/

The Services Sector Output numbers are down way more than expected (-4.3 points)

This is not pandemic or Ukraine war related as they are the opposite of many figures from Europe that have just been released where, post pandemic, most are posting strong private sector growth figures (although inflation is high there too), and in the US.

I like the lamb export one, Shhh - that's good.

Because it's a percentage, a reflection of what was before and what is now, the trend.

I don't really give much credit to the one-off stories - they're good, of course, but there don't really tell you anything i.e Huboo might have opened a new hub but tons of others might have shut so it doesn't tell us the big picture.

However, my favourite is the soon-to-be-off-completely-ratted Indians ! Love the idea they're going to be sloshed on Scotch (Not sure it's for the greater world good but, hey, we all need some relaxation - hopefully a few bottles will slip off the crate and go to the poorer Indians too - spread the cheer )

Daily Mail now complaining that foreign workers aren't 'turning up' to pick the fruit and veg.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10836933/Britain-faces-summer-shortages-supermarket-shelves-lack-season-crop-pickers.html