Brexit

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Brexit

indiana · Tennis legend

Bob in Spain wrote:
I find this truly remarkable from the NI minister.

twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1488964725572612098

A member of the DUP unilaterally decides to dump aspects of the NIP and the UK government basically says it's not their problem ?

The EU might just consider it to be a UK government problem. That they feel the protocol they signed up to is unworkable but they take no responsibility.

Anyway time to start working on the hard Irish border.? Oh sorry EU, Good Friday Agreement and all that. Maybe just give us a free trade agreement.

Maybe not.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

The Government's Public Accounts Committee published its Post-Transition Brexit report a couple of weeks ago:

committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/160856/clear-increase-in-costs-paperwork-and-border-delays-for-uk-business-since-brexit-not-helped-by-repeated-delays-to-new-import-regime/

The basic conclusions are that there has been no economic benefit to date, and that actual economic benefit is unlikely, (unlike possible political benefit), that admin costs and loads have increased greatly, and that so much of the digital border promises etc are miles off being anywhere near ready and won't be for ages (if at all).

Shhh · Challenger level

Well there has been Covid and now a war in Ukraine so maybe not the steadiest of times to be taking measurements. Does the paper say that we are as tragically as worse off as we were also told we would be?

Despite having a hapless PM we still rolled out the vaccine impressively and responded with certain sanctions to Russia faster than the EU collectively. People still say "show me ONE single benefit...." as they will only see what they want to see. Likewise, there is loads of good economic data out there......and loads of negative stuff also I agree. I think mindsets seek take more notice of what supports their view rather than question it.

We haven't been led to the promised land, nor has the country imploded in the way it was forecast. But as above, we have had very trying circumstances on the world stage nobody could have foresaw. Conclusion.....well we will all draw different ones want we :)

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

They are an economic committee - they had factored in Covid. And the war with the Ukraine is obviously too recent to be in a report that was published just before the invasion.

The vaccine was great, Ms. Bingham is an absolute hero (and Boris or whoever for appointing her, of course - although he also appointed Han**** - hence the awful death toll as, despite the vaccine, we do have a higher death toll than most other comparable countries.

This is purely an economic report, by the government committee - it's not really a question of drawing different conclusions - I wasn't drawing one - I was simply repeating their conclusion. Which isn't good.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

NB LOVE the fact that Matt Hanc*ck's name gets asterisked - couldn't be more apt if it tried.

Shhh · Challenger level

I understand Coup, but the report can still be read from different views.

We were promised huge benefits....they have not happened.
We were promised huge penalties.....they have not happened.

Both sides of the debate can point to it and say "See....I told you!!

And I yes I agree the **** are rather apt in this case

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

We're only arguing about fine details......

But the report sort of does say that we were warned of big penalties AND they are happening - it says that the admins costs and restrictions of trade are awful, and that the govt promised that wasn't going to be the case.

Yes, you might say it's still early days but the report specifically looks at the work in the pipeline to address this - and says, basically, there isn't any

indiana · Tennis legend

Shhh wrote:
I understand Coup, but the report can still be read from different views.

We were promised huge benefits....they have not happened.
We were promised huge penalties.....they have not happened.

Both sides of the debate can point to it and say "See....I told you!!

And I yes I agree the **** are rather apt in this case

I am not sure we were promised huge benefits and why expect much more in particular by staying as we were. The onus was more on a case to be made for leaving. Much of that case was dishonest

We were certainly promised huge penalties in a probably too negative, and also dishonest at times, anti Brexit campaign.

To my mind we have though seen enough not that unexpected negatives, both culturally and economically, for myself to unfortunately remain very confident that I was right to vote against.

I think such as CD and Bob make convincing posts. Personally I do continue to read both sides and while there is no doubt much truth in saying both sides can get quite fixed in their views, I''d love to see some truly convincing positive points about Brexit.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

From Bob re P&O:

"The UK workers were fired but the EU workers (mostly Dutch/French) were not. Why ? Because the ferries were re-registered under a Cypriot flag in 2019 and therefore EU workers are protected by EU legislation."

(Although it's true that the French domestic Code de Travail is also extremely tough - which is not great for business always, as a whole, but does protect in cases like this)

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

From the Daily Express (the most pro-Brexit reporting you normally can find)

Brexit blamed as UK exports drop 14% Britain 'missing out' on global trade

EXPERTS believe that Brexit is the key reason why the UK's post-pandemic global trade has not recovered as other countries' have, with goods exports falling 14 percent in the three months to January.
By ALEKS PHILLIPS

A new world trade monitor published by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis found that the global average was a rise of 8.2 percent in the same period. Earlier in the week, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said global trade lagged behind domestic recovery.

The trade monitor, known as the CPB, incorporates data from the Office for National Statistics, showed the UK performed poorly against advanced countries as well, where exports rose 5 percent.

Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee said Brexit had reduced the economys openness, in trade and labour mobility.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that UK trade lagged behind the domestic economic recovery and had missed out on much of the recovery in global trade.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:

A new world trade monitor published by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis found that the global average was a rise of 8.2 percent in the same period. Earlier in the week, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said global trade lagged behind domestic recovery.

The trade monitor, known as the CPB, incorporates data from the Office for National Statistics, showed the UK performed poorly against advanced countries as well, where exports rose 5 percent.

Here is a graphic illustrating what you have said. This time from the Financial Times.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1507715922559123456

-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Sunday 27th of March 2022 11:27:13 AM

Shhh · Challenger level

Coup Droit wrote:
From the Daily Express (the most pro-Brexit reporting you normally can find)

Brexit blamed as UK exports drop 14% Britain 'missing out' on global trade

EXPERTS believe that Brexit is the key reason why the UK's post-pandemic global trade has not recovered as other countries' have, with goods exports falling 14 percent in the three months to January.
By ALEKS PHILLIPS

A new world trade monitor published by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis found that the global average was a rise of 8.2 percent in the same period. Earlier in the week, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said global trade lagged behind domestic recovery.

The trade monitor, known as the CPB, incorporates data from the Office for National Statistics, showed the UK performed poorly against advanced countries as well, where exports rose 5 percent.

Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee said Brexit had reduced the economys openness, in trade and labour mobility.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that UK trade lagged behind the domestic economic recovery and had missed out on much of the recovery in global trade.

I just scanned through the article but picked up a very different feel to it. Brexit "may" have been a factor and that the export economy has been in decline since before the 2008 crash. It even finishes with the line "Since January last year, the UK has reached free trade agreements with more sovereign nations than any other country in the world." I guess we see what we want to???

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Not really - the number of the trade deals is a lot but the trading amount is little (especially the forecast increases) - and of course we would have reached more free trade agreements than any other country - that's because most other countries are all in existing free trade areas so there is no need to sign new trade free deals (or relatively few) because they already have them

We effectively lost 27 deals overnight (and all the added EU-Non-EU) ones) so we have a lot of making up to do. (And, yes, you could say we have a free trade deal with the countries but lack of tariffs is precious little help if you have no equivalency for all other aspects)

Also note that the BBC says that The Express is including roll-over deals in its number (i.e. The Express claimed 70 new deals, but 63 of those are just old ones rolled over)

Also, that even for some of the new ones, it's not a plus i.e. "The UK Trade Policy Observatory estimates that the Japan deal will result in no net gain compared to the EU-Japan deal".

And, yes, The Express says Brexit 'may' have been a factor.

But it endorses the fact by writing "EXPERTS believe that Brexit is the key reason why the UK's post-pandemic global trade has not recovered as other countries' have"

What I mean is that if EVEN The Express is reporting experts who say that Brexit has enormously dampened our export industry, without any rebuttals, then you can just imagine what the more middle-ground publications are reporting - well, you don't have to imagine, you can find them online but I chose The Express so as not to be seen as quoting from anti-Brexit publications.

-- Edited by Coup Droit on Sunday 27th of March 2022 12:38:42 PM

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Direct quote from the OBR:

"While additional trade with other counties could offset some of the decline in trade with the EU, none of the agreements concluded to date are of a sufficient scale to have a material impact on our forecast."

obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence-on-the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade/