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Post Info TOPIC: Brexit
Brexit Voting [43 vote(s)]

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Voted Remain - Would Still Vote Remain
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Brexit


In the tweet it says "EU citizens and their families will need to apply to the EU Settlement Scheme to continue living in the UK after 31 December 2020." I took this to mean they can't live here after that date if they don't sort this out but maybe I misinterpreted an ambiguous sentence.

In the link it says "The EU Settlement Scheme will open fully by 30 March 2019. The deadline for applying will be 30 June 2021." Which to me doesn't make any sense to what's in the tweet.

At a guess I would hazard that the tweet meant to say 2021, then the timeline would make sense to me.



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wolf wrote:

In the tweet it says "EU citizens and their families will need to apply to the EU Settlement Scheme to continue living in the UK after 31 December 2020." I took this to mean they can't live here after that date if they don't sort this out but maybe I misinterpreted an ambiguous sentence.

In the link it says "The EU Settlement Scheme will open fully by 30 March 2019. The deadline for applying will be 30 June 2021." Which to me doesn't make any sense to what's in the tweet.

At a guess I would hazard that the tweet meant to say 2021, and that would then the timeline would make sense to me.


Got it.  I just looked at the tweet and didn't follow the link.  So I see what you mean.  Very confusing.  The sad part is that by June 2021, the politicians still won't have made up their minds as to what they want from Brexit.

The whole thing is a shambles.



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Can someone please answer me a simple factual question. I have tried to get an answer on Twitter but not got a response either way.

Question: If we leave the EU without a deal on 29th March, are we still liable for the 39 billion or not ?

I am not arguing here as to whether we should or shouldn't be, that is a different question altogether. I just want to know if we are or if we aren't.

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www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-can-we-avoid-paying-the-39-billion-brexit-divorce-bill

You could say the jury is out bob

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JonH


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We are legally obliged to pay some, but not all.
I've heard 8bn

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paulisi wrote:

We are legally obliged to pay some, but not all.
I've heard 8bn


Thanks.



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Paulisi may well be completely right but I wouldn't take it to the bank, Bob.

The negotiations about the amount were not conditional on reaching a deal.

And the idea of a 'legal' obligation is up for debate anyway as no one can quite decide how Article 70 (Vienna Convention) should be interpreted in this situation. The House of Lords report concluded there was no legal obligation, as Article 50 contracts us out of customary law, as embodied in Article 70. However, many people disagree.

I'm positive the answer will be way more political than legal.

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Coup Droit wrote:

Paulisi may well be completely right but I wouldn't take it to the bank, Bob.

The negotiations about the amount were not conditional on reaching a deal.

And the idea of a 'legal' obligation is up for debate anyway as no one can quite decide how Article 70 (Vienna Convention) should be interpreted in this situation. The House of Lords report concluded there was no legal obligation, as Article 50 contracts us out of customary law, as embodied in Article 70. However, many people disagree.

I'm positive the answer will be way more political than legal.


The sense I get is that nobody knows 100% for sure.  So I am sure you are right that in the end, it will come down to a political negotiation with each claiming to be legally in the right. That is why I am still nervous about a No Deal scenario as there will be a lot of international dispute between the UK and the EU afterwards, on top of all the other logistical issues.  Certainly I don't think we would get a trade deal unless we paid, although as Paulisi has said, it may end up as a smaller amount.

I am also concerned about the reactions of people as much as politicians.  Whether it is shown that we are legally liable or not, if the UK doesn't pay, I can see the French farmers, fishermen and truckers blockading the French ports to protect their own interests.  They are not afraid of an uprising to get what they want.

 



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Yes, there is a big difference between what is actually legally binding (not a lot) and what will happen.

The Lords report was typical (IMO) hubris. Although it's a legal argument.

As stated:

"The House of Lords reached two main legal conclusions in its report on Brexit and the EU budget:

1. Article 50 TEU allows the UK to leave the EU without being liable for outstanding
financial obligations under the EU budget and related financial instruments, unless a
withdrawal agreement is concluded which resolves this issue. (para. 135).

2. The jurisdiction of the CJEU over the UK would also come to an end when the EU
Treaties ceased to have effect. Outstanding payments could not, therefore, be
enforced against the UK in the CJEU. (para. 133).

The House of Lords report takes the view that Article 50 contracts out of customary
international law on withdrawal as laid out in Articles 70 (1), which represent customary international
law"

However, this is not what is going to happen. As paulisi says, some sort of compromise sounds most likely, with it being back-loaded (currently even with the full 39 billion, GB has until 2060 or so to pay it, so you can see that each government will push to back to the next one.

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A more lighthearted summary of the Brexit shenanigans.

www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/11/16/you-wont-find-a-better-metaphor-for-brexit-than-this-one-involving-cake/

Enjoy.

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I find myself more and more aware of the diversity of languages and culture I come across throughout the day and what so many Europeans add to our society. And I find myself yet sadder about Brexit.

Now the leave voters clearly voted for all sorts of reasons so no accusation of generally being against 'outsiders' of first or further generations.

But also with so many ongoing economic and practical concerns and the uncertainties that will continue for so long even if a "deal" is reached I just wish this could all even yet be put back to the people with one of the options being simply to remain in.



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Looking like we could face 62 quid for a Shengen visa as well, and don't bother thinking about overseas holidays If you've got any sort of criminal record , even if spent, as Europe will join usa and Australia and New Zealand and Canada in not letting you have a visa. Not sure many brexit voters thought of that one.

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JonH


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I don't think that's going to happen - certainly not for holidays up to three months - that's just Spain rattling its Gibraltar cage.

But the economy, the brotherhood, the peace and prosperity, the entrepreneurial potential - all these (and more) are taking a huge bashing.

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OK. So here is my latest solution to the ridiculous mess that is Brexit. Much as I want to reverse the result of the referendum, I am now sure that is not going to happen and I will have to respect the result of the referendum despite still feeling aggrieved at not being able to vote. So it becomes a question of what type of Brexit. I know that some want a hard Brexit but with the Irish border problem, that is impossible as we don't have a solution to the following dilemma.

1) The GFA is a legally binding international treaty that forbids a hard border in Ireland.
2) WTO rules are international recognised and require a hard border in Ireland (unless there is a customs union which is not hard Brexit)

The two are simply incompatible.  So what are we left with ? My proposal is this.

On 29th March, we soft Brexit. i.e. we stay in the Customs Union and the Single Market. No need for transition period. No need for backstop. No need for hard border in Ireland. We leave the political union.  No United States of Europe for us, no participation in any European army etc. Reduced influence of the ECJ.

Then, to keep the more hard line Brexiteers happy, we offer them the following. Go away and find a viable solution to the Irish Border issue. Once you come back with the viable solution, whether that be 6 months or 6 years, then we have another referendum on whether to "upgrade" from soft to hard Brexit. No option will be given to re-enter the EU as that decision has already been taken.

Right now, the EU have us over a barrel with the Irish Border situation because we have no solution which means in negotiation terms, they hold the cards. If we had a solution to that issue, then in future negotiations, the boot would be on the other foot. They would then have to give us a good trade deal or we would implement the hard Brexit strategy, knowing we have a border solution, which is something that they wouldn't want see.

So to summarize

Soft Brexit now. No transition. Solve the Irish Border issue. Vote on Brexit Upgrade. Simples.

 



-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Sunday 3rd of March 2019 04:10:27 PM

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