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Post Info TOPIC: Brexit
Brexit Voting [49 vote(s)]

Voted Leave - Would Still Vote Leave
18.4%
Voted Leave - Would Now Vote Remain
0.0%
Voted Remain - Would Still Vote Remain
71.4%
Voted Remain - Would Now Vote Leave
0.0%
Didn't Vote - Would Now Vote Leave
0.0%
Didn't Vote - Would Now Vote Remain
6.1%
Other
4.1%


Grand Slam Champion

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Brexit


For those of us who worried about the impact of brexit on our business, coronavirus is having an impact.

I am an independent management consultant. So I get paid by the day in essence. Already next week a key client has advised t postpone two meetings and a project starting 16th March is delayed. The impact this month could easily equate to losing 7 days income and next month will be worse.

With tax Bill's to pay, it hits quickly, and I can see lots of phone calls happening in the next month with HMRC to try and agree delayed dates for payments. I suspect this will impact many people.

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Tennis legend

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Date:

JonH comes home wrote:

For those of us who worried about the impact of brexit on our business, coronavirus is having an impact.

I am an independent management consultant. So I get paid by the day in essence. Already next week a key client has advised t postpone two meetings and a project starting 16th March is delayed. The impact this month could easily equate to losing 7 days income and next month will be worse.

With tax Bill's to pay, it hits quickly, and I can see lots of phone calls happening in the next month with HMRC to try and agree delayed dates for payments. I suspect this will impact many people.


I wish you well with resolving this situation.  My honest opinion is that the world has gone into complete panic mode and there has been a huge over-reaction to the Corona Virus outbreak.  I am not saying that the situation doesn't need to be managed, but with panic buying and some press outlets saying things like "visit your elderly relatives now, before it is too late", this really doesn't help.



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Tennis legend

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But nice to get people off their backsides to visit their elderly relatives

My taxi driver (about 40, English, cool dude) yesterday thought it was 'fake news' - kept saying 'if you really believe it exists......' - more scary than the virus?

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Tennis legend

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More seriously, John's point ties into the biggest problem, it seems to me.

Figures aren't exact but, seemingly, we have about 2-3 million gig economy workers. And about 5-7 million self-employed in total. (This includes me).

There is no statutory sick pay for these people.

The majority simply cannot afford to self-isolate.

As one of their spokeperson has said, they never do for regular flu, or any other nasty infectious disease. Just tripe dose themselves on paracetemol.

A lot of coronavirus sufferers have relatively mild symptoms anyway. So many will be able to work.

And a lot of these workers are direct contact to the public workers (taxi drivers, delivery guys, agency nurses....)





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Grand Slam Champion

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Coup Droit wrote:

More seriously, John's point ties into the biggest problem, it seems to me.

Figures aren't exact but, seemingly, we have about 2-3 million gig economy workers. And about 5-7 million self-employed in total. (This includes me).

There is no statutory sick pay for these people.

The majority simply cannot afford to self-isolate.

As one of their spokeperson has said, they never do for regular flu, or any other nasty infectious disease. Just tripe dose themselves on paracetemol.

A lot of coronavirus sufferers have relatively mild symptoms anyway. So many will be able to work.

And a lot of these workers are direct contact to the public workers (taxi drivers, delivery guys, agency nurses....)




 Indeed and I for one would think long and hard before taking any time off sick. Holidays always cause same internal angst, I need to close my eyes before booking any time off! 



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Of course, there is a healthy line to draw between panic on the one hand, and blithely dismissing the entire thing as a hoax or similar on the other.

Digesting sensible information, and preparing accordingly and calmly will help every one.

For anyone thinking that this is trivial, or that because younger and healthy people are seemingly less likely to suffer terrible outcomes, here is a very good explanation, in 31 tweets, using American population numbers, to show the burden on a country even if mortality is kept in check at current levels, and to only the currently most susceptible groups.

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Same sort of impact assessment applies here - I can't find an analogous domestic equivalent.

Best prepared to face these ancillary disruptions if we are informed and expect them - happy if they do not come to pass. It's not just about an individuals chance of dying from an infection.

Don't be lulled into a false sense of security if numbers remain low - understand the arithmetic and the way exponents work.
Here is the pattern for France, which just declared an epidemic is now unstoppable there: https://twitter.com/EdWhelanEPPC/status/1235951027557470208

And, here the American Hospital Association modelling from today for likely impact: https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864

Edit: Regarding the AHA numbers above: It is now known that these are not exactly AHA official numbers - they are an AHA expert witness doctor and Epidemiologist's numbers given at an AHA corona virus planning crisis conference about modelling for likely outcomes.
Relevant, and not contested as a likely model, by a qualified expert in the field, working for the Agency, but not official figures from the agency itself, or released by them for that purpose.
I add this explanation so as to not deceive anyone on this important issue.

No need to panic, but don't expect this to all just blow over. For once, the saying really does apply: Keep Calm & Carry On

Best Wishes



-- Edited by Status Quo on Saturday 7th of March 2020 10:39:23 PM

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Tennis legend

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I know we are all focused on other things, so I will just leave this here.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Note the phrase : "The prime minister agreed checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain in a breakthrough meeting in Wirral with his Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar, last October." i.e Pre all his election promises about no border checks.



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Sorry Bob, what's Brexit?

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Tennis legend

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When is a Border not a Border

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-government-trade-checks-britain-northern-ireland-a9524211.html

Here are three quotes from this article - in case you can't be bothered to read it all. I have to say, I wouldn't blame you.

1) Businesses will need to fill out export declarations for goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland

2) Ministers have also admitted there will need to be extra border infrastructure in Northern Irish ports

3) But ministers denied that the checks amounted to a border

Who are they kidding.

With apologies to my Brexit supporting friends on here, but this is just utter BS.

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