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Post Info TOPIC: Brexit
Brexit Voting [49 vote(s)]

Voted Leave - Would Still Vote Leave
18.4%
Voted Leave - Would Now Vote Remain
0.0%
Voted Remain - Would Still Vote Remain
71.4%
Voted Remain - Would Now Vote Leave
0.0%
Didn't Vote - Would Now Vote Leave
0.0%
Didn't Vote - Would Now Vote Remain
6.1%
Other
4.1%


Grand Slam Champion

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RE: Brexit


indiana wrote:

The Brexit Party decision to stand aside in current Tory seats has markedly boosted Tory projections. I think thst the Lib Dems are sadly whistling a bit in the wind about it being good for them.

The Tories are now being quoted around 4/7 on to have an overall majoriry with Sporting Index quoting 342 - 348 about their number of seats. Lsbour 199 to 205.


Be interesting to see if that pans out...they and labour are still down on last election as I understand it, so not sure how that will translate into seats won, depends on how they model it I guess.

Personally, still think this is looking like a hung parliament and then depends on what deals and coalitions are done to make it work for one side or the other...



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This is how Ladbrokes had it on Friday, admittedly could have moved a long way since then

According to Ladbrokes it was 5/6 that there is no overall majority, leaving a Tory victory to move out to 6/5 with the firm.

Jessica O'Reilly of Ladbrokes said: "It's been an eventful couple of days since parliament dissolved, so perhaps it should come as no surprise that bets continue to pour in for a hung parliament."

A Labour majority was way out at 14/1.

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Tennis legend

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Bob in Spain wrote:
indiana wrote:

The Brexit Party decision to stand aside in current Tory seats has markedly boosted Tory projections. Lib Dems sadly whistling a bit in the wind about it being good for them.

The Tories are now being quoted around 4/7 on to have an overall majoriry with Sporting Index quoting 342 - 348 about their number of seats.


Latest Survation poll has Tory lead down to 6%. Long time to go yet and to be honest, the polls mean very little so far. I still think more "collaboration" deals will be done and the result will depend on cooperation in the key marginals.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1194248375077605377


No sooner do I write the above, than I see this on Twitter. It is what I mean about local collaboration in marginals.

https://twitter.com/bendepear/status/1194326389366890496



-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Tuesday 12th of November 2019 07:07:16 PM

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Tennis legend

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I think it's the Tories fo lose sadly. I have tended to think overall majority since the moment Johnson got an agreement wifh the EU. And I now expect it.

So go and lose it, Boris ! - or at least fail to get that majority.



-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 12th of November 2019 07:10:25 PM

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Hall of fame

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I'm sure that the 13 conservative seats in Scotland will be at risk, so it'll be that much harder to get an overall majority.

I haven't caught up on twitter today yet - whose turn was it today to make a gaffe ?

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Tennis legend

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The bookies now have the Tories strong favourites to get a majority.

Meanwhile Labour seem to be announcing more and more plans to nationalise private companies and bankrupt the economy.
I don't thing they get that the same people who work for the private sector will work as a nationalised company, so little would change.

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the addict wrote:

I'm sure that the 13 conservative seats in Scotland will be at risk, so it'll be that much harder to get an overall majority.

I haven't caught up on twitter today yet - whose turn was it today to make a gaffe ?


Apparently the Tory and Lib Dem votes in Scotland are holding up better than expected...it's Labour that looks like it's going to be squashed.



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Tennis legend

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While the Lib Dems and Tories argue today about who is going to plant the most trees and how much they will spend achieving that, please take 90 seconds out of you day and watch this video.

www.youtube.com/watch

It doesn't take millions of pounds. It just takes a bit of human endeavour and initiative.

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Did you see , Tory HQ rebranded itself factcheckuk during leaders debate to comment as it went on, commented adversely on a number of corbyn things and declared johnson winner. All the while pretending to be neutral. Dystopian

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JonH comes home wrote:

Did you see , Tory HQ rebranded itself factcheckuk during leaders debate to comment as it went on, commented adversely on a number of corbyn things and declared johnson winner. All the while pretending to be neutral. Dystopian


I also saw that Party Chairman, James Cleverly, refused to deny that he had personally given the go ahead for this.



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Futures level

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Bob in Spain wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:

Did you see , Tory HQ rebranded itself factcheckuk during leaders debate to comment as it went on, commented adversely on a number of corbyn things and declared johnson winner. All the while pretending to be neutral. Dystopian


I also saw that Party Chairman, James Cleverly, refused to deny that he had personally given the go ahead for this.


James Cleverly makes my blood boil. He's a tosser. He is like a robot.



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World renowned expert in Nordic tennis.



Tennis legend

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The Tory leadership continues to aspire to the governments of the USA and Russia.

Lack of morals.

Will the British people in general show itself on a par with these great nations?

Lack of care.



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Apparently, in the letters column of the Guardian this week, a Gill Clayton from Cardiff has spotted that "Get Brexit Done" is an anagram for "Being Extorted". biggrinbiggrin

https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1201931831710486528



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I have watched both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage on Sophie Ridge this morning. I really shouldn't bother as it makes my blood boil.

Let's start with Johnson. He was asked about the border checks in the Irish sea. He said: "There will be no checks on goods going from GB/NI but there will be some checks if goods are destined to go on to Southern Ireland". How the hell do we know where the goods are going if they are not checked. This just sounds like s smugglers charter to me and the EU will, rightfully, not stand for it.

Then he gets on to immigration saying we only want to let the right people in and not those low wage, low skill workers who become a burden on the state. Firstly, at this moment in time 80% of UK immigration is from outside the EU, so Brexit is irrelevant in those cases. Secondly, EU migrants, on average, pay 2.300 per year MORE in tax than UK citizens. Here is the independent source for that information.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

Then there is the final point - the one that is affecting me at the moment while we are still inside the EU. Under EU law, if a migrant is not self sufficient financially, the host country can already ask them to leave after 90 days. Here is the article of EU Law.


EU Residency.jpg

So to say that Freedom of Movement does not allow a member state to control immigration, is quite simply a lie. The power to control EU immigration exists. It is the UK Government that chooses not to implement it and they then blame it on our membership of the EU.

Then we have Nigel Farage talking about the latest Withdrawal Bill. He described it as a terrible bill and his exact words were (quoting as accurately as possible), "unless there are changes to the Withdrawal Bill, we will be back in crisis mode by June".

Given that he feels that way, why is his Brexit Party doing everything it can to facilitate a Tory government - and by implication, the Withdrawal Bill - by standing down in Tory seats.

These two men are a pair of frauds and I wouldn't trust them to pour me a pint, let alone run the country.



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Grand Slam Champion

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Analysis I read today was that tories will get most seats in election, that's pretty much certain. Its whether they get a majority. That's in the balance. If they dont get a majority, with the way it looks, it seems unlikely johnson would have the nomination tory support to form a government. Hed have little choice but to resign. If they cant form a government, corbyn would get the chance. Although hes not well liked, the other parties are more likely to gather round him and go for 2nd referendum than not, but with conditions for their support.

But it's very much on a knife edge

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