Weeks 35 & 36: US Open, New York (hard)

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

Weeks 35 & 36: US Open, New York (hard)

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Well done Stircrazy I was just thinking someone should and you've obliged. All have great chances so much so I'm going for 4/4 here and in fact looking ahead they all have landed ideal for potential R2 opponents as well.

A seperate thread for Doubles though I hope.

JonH · All-time great

Stircrazy wrote:
No one seems to have started a main draw thread yet, so here goes:
L128: Aljaz Bedene WR 48 (CH = 45 in November 2015) vs Andrey Rublev (RUS) WR 54 (CH = 49 last month)
L128: Kyle Edmund WR 45 (CH = 40 in October last year) vs (32) Robin Haase (NED) WR 36 (CH = 33 in July 2012)
L128: Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) WR 642 (CH = 20 in October 2004 - he's 34!) vs (Q) Cam Norrie WR 226 (CH = 187 two weeks ago)
L128: Tennys Sandgren (USA) WR 104 (CH = 100 in June) vs (2) Andy Murray (CH = 1 last November)

On the H2H's:

Bedene bt Rublev in 3 sets in March this year in Irving, similar surface but tight match.

Haase bt Edmund in their only match up , in Miami 2015 2 and 2

Priesty · Challenger level

I shall be spectating in person for at least the first 2 days, flight leaves on Sunday morning. Can't sleep for the excitement... biggrin

Strongbow · All-time great

Lucky B***** biggrin

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Have a great time Priesty, I'm jealous of you for sure. I'm planning a trip for next year and that will be me having been to all 4 Slams, bucket list ticked off. Any other posters been to all 4 or am I going to claim this one I wonder.

Vandenburg · Futures level

You know you are about to enter a weak era of tennis when Hasse is seeded at a slam!

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Vandenburg wrote:
You know you are about to enter a weak era of tennis when Hasse is seeded at a slam!

He's beaten three top-15 players in the last couple of months. It's not bad.... smile

I'm pleased for him - good for the Netherlands to have a top player, I like his game and he's had his fair share of injuries.

The ongoing murder trial of his ex-coach obviously can't be easy either, what with all the press coverage it's been getting.

But even given all that - go Kyle !!!

indiana · Tennis legend

For a player clearly looking to go at least a few rounds, and like all non seeds bracketed to meet a seed in the first couple of rounds, Haase then Almagro or Johnson ( and Tsonga as the top 8 seed, after a low seed, bracketed for R3 ) represents a good draw for Kyle. A draw though that probably means he will have to be pretty on it from the get go.

Spectator · All-time great

Thanks, SC, for the draws.
Bedene v Rublev feels impossible to know what will happen ... but I will be hoping Mr Bedene can get the victory!
Mr Edmund's draw seems quite nasty: Robin Haase likes hard courts and has victories over assorted top players on them this year.
Mr Norrie's seems as good as one could possibly hope for as a first time qualifier. Mr Tursunov has been using his protected ranking but has not done anything to suggest he's near his peak. In his last two tournaments he struggled to beat Mitchell Krueger and lost to Austin Krajicek, both ranked lower than Mr Norrie. He's a seasoned player and has far more experience with five-set Slams, so I wouldn't discount him, but for a Slam, it's a good draw.
As for Mr Murray ... I seem to recall a story a few years ago about the frequency with which the top 2 seeds in the US Open met very low-ranked players in the 1st round. Apparently it seemed statistically anomalous (yes, have found a version of the story via Google: www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely). Unlike many on this board, I am not even remotely a statistician, so don't know if it's odd or not ... but certainly Mr Murray could not have done better than Mr Sandgren without getting a WC or PR. Overall his quarter could be far worse, too. Which means nothing ... if we've learned anything in the past year it's that for all the top players (except possibly Nadal on clay), surprises lurk everywhere ...

-- Edited by Spectator on Saturday 26th of August 2017 09:24:03 AM

Vandenburg · Futures level

Here is my thoughts

1)Even if Murray plays at 75% he should be fine until he meets Ferrer in R4 or Tsonga in QF,
However if Murray, can get to even 85-90% it should be a walk to the final, the young brat Zverev is really not tested in 5 sets and will do well to go far in New York

2)Edmund is emerging as a flat track bully, his massive forehand can really destroy players ranked 75 or below, but he struggles against anyone ranked above him. Hasse for the win here, sorry

3)Norrie should win this, end of. The main question here is, is Tursunov ginger or not?

indiana · Tennis legend

Many more questions than answers about Andy.

I read here a few weeks ago about the "source" that said Andy wasn't going to be playing so why didn't he get on and announce it. And then when he was apparently playing suggestions that maybe he had changed his mind given the top name withdrawals.

Whatever, I really do hope he is close to general full fitness, if clearly not match fit, and has not persuaded himself to play when well off full fitness. I read theories on his chances 75% fit, 80, 90% fit etc but it is rather difficult to contextualise these thoughts given there isn't as such a fitness index so we don't know what sort of fitness is truly in the mind of the poster. My historical thoughts would have been that any mention of less than 90% folk meant well off full fitness and even a Murray would struggle at the top level if well off and 70s to 80s% well just forget it, but as I say one person's 80% is difficult to guage. I'd hate to see him come here more on a whim that this has opened up, let's take a chance, and do himself more lasting damage.

Hope he does well, haven't a clue for now how he will do.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Long report about and interview with Tursunov (VERY close to retiring), which makes quite interesting reading:

norcaltennisczar.blogspot.fr/2017/08/tursunov-q-part-i-big-decision-looms_25.html

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

A few interesting (to some!) charts and tables:

Average age of men in US Open since 1990 table:

pbs.twimg.com/media/DII98jDWsAAXKd2.jpg

Wimbledon was slightly higher:

pbs.twimg.com/media/DII_GZpXcAAwSa6.jpg

Number of slams played by the US Open male players:

pbs.twimg.com/media/DIJxrHVXYAAKDAw.jpg:large

Mervatron2 · Challenger qualifying

Good draws all round really.