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Post Info TOPIC: Top 500


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Top 500


paulisi wrote:

There are a few other men capable off breaking into the top 500 very soon.
Ali Gray, Henry Searle. Hamish Stewart, Ryan Peniston, Stuart Parker, George Loffhagen, Emil Hudd and Max Basing

I would say 20 in top 500 will happen again very shortly, 10 in the top 250 is a bit more difficult.


 Maybe ( hopefully! ) Ryan will be back in soon and Liam, if he falls out, also back in fairly quickly. Clearly they have the ability and the history.

Otherwise, I think you are again being quite a bit over-optimistic re our men's top 500 prospects. Great if 20 does happen, but it might well not. IMO maybe not this year anyway and could be at least well into next year if next year at all.



-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 9th of October 2024 06:12:16 PM



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Yes, I do think we've rather been here before

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indiana wrote:
paulisi wrote:

There are a few other men capable off breaking into the top 500 very soon.
Ali Gray, Henry Searle. Hamish Stewart, Ryan Peniston, Stuart Parker, George Loffhagen, Emil Hudd and Max Basing

I would say 20 in top 500 will happen again very shortly, 10 in the top 250 is a bit more difficult.


 Maybe ( hopefully! ) Ryan will be back in soon and Liam, if he falls out, also back in fairly quickly. Clearly they have the ability and the history.

Otherwise, I think you are again being quite a bit over-optimistic re our men's top 500 prospects. Great if 20 does happen, but it might well not. IMO maybe not this year anyway and could be at least well into next year if next year at all.



-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 9th of October 2024 06:12:16 PM


 My assessment is with you, Indy, I dont see it happening - each one maybe individually could stand a chance (some more than others) but as a group, it wont happen again for a while, I reckon

Been here before, as CD says! 



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I think a lot may be down to Liam and Ryan. If both of them are top 500 then it really just needs one more. So yes I can see that it could well happen but it might well not.

And Ryan doesn't appear to have entries in the next couple of weeks at least?



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Absolutely - I'm not disagreeing with paulisi - there's a very good chance it'll happen

But my point was, as we saw last time, it was on the cards, it was happening, and then there was always a last minute hiccup which dragged it out for AGES

Also, saying there's a few more likely to make the top-500 is ignoring the ones about to fall out

Without steven's excellent tables (from 6 years ago ) I'm not quite sure about the others who are falling

I know Kyle has his M25 finalist points from last October coming off - not sure if that's in the live rankings

And Aidan had a Challenger QF spot last autumn

**Most likely, though, surely is Giles Hussey - he had tons of points last autumn and doesn't seem to be playing now - he must be out of the top-500 soon

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Ryan, Hamish and Henry have all lost points this week, and backed off from threatening the top-500

Arthur and Felix have big drops too

Still 18 in the top-500 as it stands

(Just to point out, France now has 26 in the top-200 - it's always been good but it's suddenly exploded)

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Ryan P's Greece M25 title last week should have us back up to 19 in the top 500 on Monday 11/11 with our #20 showing as live ranked 504.

#19. Aidan M - live ranked 498 on 78 points
#20. Alistair G - live ranked 504 on 76 points
#21. Henry S - live ranked 514 on 74 points


For the following week, 18/11, Ryan has points to drop and has exited in this week's M25 at R2 so he will be due to drop back out of the top 500. Ali G has exited at R1 in his Canada M25 this week and is due to drop 1 point though he apparently has a challenger entry next week, as does Henry.



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paulisi wrote:

There are a few other men capable off breaking into the top 500 very soon.
Ali Gray, Henry Searle. Hamish Stewart, Ryan Peniston, Stuart Parker, George Loffhagen, Emil Hudd and Max Basing

I would say 20 in top 500 will happen again very shortly, 10 in the top 250 is a bit more difficult.


 We're six weeks on and we're still at 18

Henry Searle is playing a challenger this week and those points go on straight away (yes?) and he doesn't have any points coming off for the rest of the year. So he's got a good chance.

Emile is playing in Australia but ITF25s go on a week later, no? 

And he's got a LOT of points to defend from last year over the next few weeks

No one else is playing this week so I'm not sure the 'very shortly' is happening quite yet cry



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Ryan Peniston will get there if he wins tomorrow and plays again next week.
Henry Searle is down to play a challenger again next week. A win would be enough.
Ali Gray has points to defend, but a victory this week would be sufficient.
Stu Parker is down for a 15k next week. If he goes deep he could make it.
Emily Hudd is still going in a rain impacted Australia for the next couple of weeks and could easily pick up enough points.

Max Basing is playing this week and has an outside chance.

If would have happened earlier as I expected Henry Searle and Ali Gray to pick up a win, but managed to lose several weeks on the run in round 1.

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Fingers crossed, we're definitely close

That's always the problem though, quite a few 'ifs'

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I'd been noticing the progress this week and possibilties for the 02/12 rankings ( even got a nice wee table of the contenders' round by round points ).

But I did think it maybe best to just let it all play out and if we got to the 20 then paulisi say could then shout it out : "Take that you doubters!"

Anyways, if we are talking about it, whisper it, that's now both Ryan and Alistair just a SF win away.



-- Edited by indiana on Friday 22nd of November 2024 10:49:24 PM



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OK, I'll whisper it .....

And all those with points coming off have basically happened, no?

i.e. Emile can't make it, surely, He has a lot of points from last year, at end Nov/early Dec, he's going to have to cover

But all the others have lost theirs already, no?





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indiana wrote:

I'd been noticing the progress this week and possibilties for the 02/12 rankings ( even got a nice wee table of the contenders' round by round points ).

But I did think it maybe best to just let it all play out and if we got to the 20 then paulisi say could then shout it out : "Take that you doubters!"

Anyways, if we are talking about it, whisper it, that's now both Ryan and Alistair just a SF win away.



-- Edited by indiana on Friday 22nd of November 2024 10:49:24 PM


Ryan took the opening set 6-3, in his semi which is playing at the moment 



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Coup Droit wrote:

OK, I'll whisper it .....

And all those with points coming off have basically happened, no?

i.e. Emile can't make it, surely, He has a lot of points from last year, at end Nov/early Dec, he's going to have to cover

But all the others have lost theirs already, no?


 Ryan makes it at least 19 and has no points to come off the rest of the year, nor do #17 or #19 and no-one in that top 19 will fall below these points scores before the end of the year.

Current 02/12 projections :

17. Aidan M : 84

18. Ryan P : 67 - 0 + 16 (so far) = 83

19. Arthur F : 82

( Live WR 500 is currently on 77 points )

Alistair can be #20 later on today even allowing for his 8 points due off at 02/12. He has a total of 24 points due off over the following 3 weeks. But that won't alter the fact that he would have made it at least 20 in the top 500 again for at least a week.

Henry S could make it for 02/12 with next week's challenger.

Emile H lost overnight so only got 1 point this week but after the 8 points due off on 02/12 he only has a total of 4 ( net 2 ) points  due off the rest of the year beyond 02/12. So he is certainly not out of contention for top 500 later on in December and has another Australia M25 entry next week ( a final would make him top 500 at 09/12 )

Also, as pailisi says Stuart P has an M15 entry at 02/12, which could take him into the top 500 at 16/12 if he reached the final ( he only has 1 ranking point due off for the rest of the year ).

Current 02/12 projections:

20. Alistair G : 75 - 8 + 8 (so far) = 75 

21. Henry S : 74  ( challenger entry next week )

22. Stuart P : 72

23. Liam B : 67 ( probably finished for the season )

24. Emile H : 72 - 8 + 1 = 65

25. George L : 60 - 1 = 59

26. Hamish S : 60 - 2 = 58

27. Max B : 54 - 0 + 3 = 57

The only 4 players from these above that have points due off beyond 02/12 until year end are Ali G who could make the top 20 then drop out again, plus Emile and/or Stuart who might come in if and when Ali drops out, plus 1 point for Hamish.



-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 23rd of November 2024 02:28:40 PM



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Awesome calculations there, Indy

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