So this week's big movers are Henry, Mark and further down Toby Samuel, who finishes first in July for net point gains, with a total of +25 points. Because of no points being handed out for Wimbledon this year, its an unusual month in terms of net points, with lots of the higher ranked players unable to replace/defend their points from last year.
Overall for the year so far, Cameron drops out of the Top 10 for net points (was 4th) and Henry joins (at 9th). And as CD mentions, Henry's appearance in this graph is accompanied by a WR now inside the Top500.
It's a different story in doubles, where Lloyd still manages to place top in July's list of top net point earners, thanks to his post Wimbledon performance in Hamburg . In terms of weekly moves, the most notable shifts are downwards - Dom and Evan, although hidden amongst the mess in the middle, Joshua Paris makes jumps 52 places, homing into the Top500.
So in terms of WRs, Katie Swan, Fran and Maia all make noticable slips this week, however Eliz gets a bump up the rankings. Eliz also comes out top in terms of net points for the month, although it is a rather miserly +9 points. And while Heather does make 4th place for the month, its a case of what could have been for her had points been handed out at Wimbledon.
So in rankings, Sam has managed to open a small gap between her and Tara. Lauryn, Maia and Eliz are the big climbers this week. And all 3 make it into the Top5 for net point gains for July, however 1st place goes to Emily Appleton who managed to clock up +63 points for the month. The number of players in the Top500 goes up by 1 to 17.
There should be enough in the 500-650 range to make this happen, including Kyle, but some are going back to US colleges soon.
Yes - a key question for me is whether Oscar and Harry W quite have enough to push into the top 500 at the moment - they're close and seemingly playing full-time, so good chance (although by playing fulltime, you rather lose the 'hidden upside' argument that applies to the college lads who are doing other stuff too)
Jan C is definitely back in, if he's fit
Arthur is definitely in (IMO) if he starts playing fulltime
As you say, players like JoMo, Toby and Millen have a lot of upside but might not be playing enough when they head back stateside .... (similarly for Anton and UK uni)
Not sure about Jack PJ, Indy - must be an injury but no idea what....
Although some in the 500 to 600s in the rankings have had a rather underwhelming couple of weeks there is a more solid base being built as you go down the rankings so I could certainly see 20 in the top 500 next year sometime if not this year.
I reckon our current top 15 ( ie. down to current #13 Felix, #14 Stuart and #15 Dan Cox ) are solid bets to finish this year in the top 500. No problem for Dan once his last 2 weeks poibts are added, Stuart already has 74 race points, and Felix's 64 race points will already be not far off what is needed for a top 500 place.
So 5 more needed.
Current #16 Henry is in the top 500 at WR 487. He has though points to drop over the remaining months of the year and his doubles ambitions add uncertainty to his singles.
Current #17 Jack PJ is just outside the top 500 at WR 504 but has not been seen competing for a while. Injured?
Current #18 Mark is at WR 590. Has a few points to drop and is outside the top 600 in the race. A possible though.
Current #19 Jan is at WR 592. Also outside the top 600 in the race but certainly has the potential to be top 500 again.
Current #20 Anton is at WR 602, very similar to his race position. A disappointing season for results but been playing quite a bit and recently quite a lot on clay. It would e interesting to get more of a feel for his longer term ambitions.
Current #21 Oscar at WR 610 but inside the top 550 in the race and while a quiet couple of weeks does look to have a chance in the coming mo
Current #22 Giles at WR 614 is outside the top 650 in the race. Seems more of an outside bet to me.
Current #23 Kyle at WR 639 has replaced most of his remaining points due to drop offwirh this week's Washington R1 win. A slam dunk to get back into the top 500 if he can stay fit and get more back into the groove.
Current #24 Harry at WR 649. Inside the top 600 in the race and although a bit behind Oscar in the race I see him as having similar top 500 chances.
Add Current #33 Arthur at WR 868 but heading to around WR 600 on Monday after his title points from last week get added.
So that's 10 names for starters after our leading 15.
Kyle would make that 16 and I'd say 6 more have pretty reasonable short to medium top 500 prospects but wirh a few ifs and buts ... Henry if he can have the opportunity to pick up singles points Jack PJ if he can be fit and playing. Jan Oscar Harry Arthur if he has enough playing opportunities.
I see Mark, Anton and Giles as more outsiders.
Will enough of the above pretty reasonable prospects come together to get top 500 this year? I suspect not though it does look possible. The prospects beyond this year are looking increasingly better though, especially if you start adding in recent movers like Toby and Johannus.
In essence fairly similar thoughts to CD. Just a bit more long winded!