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All-time great

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RE: Rankings


Coup Droit wrote:
Peter too wrote:

You are probably right even in the $25K+H event Emily at 18th and Amanda at 26th on the Alts list would have just missed out, at least two girls below them got in via a WC. That however still doesn't detract from the issue of 10 British girls trying to get in events but not getting through. It looks as if you now need a ranking of around 600 to get into a $25K+H qualifying event.


Which seems about right. And isn't that pretty much what it has been all year (ignoring wildcards)? And before? 

The Glasgow event in Feb. was only a 25k, not 25+H, but had a similar cut-off in qualis.

The fact that 10 lowly-ranked/unranked GB girls didn't get into a 60k or a 25+H quali is hardly shocking or anything different.

And there are tons of 15k clay events. Which are the events suitable to the Pitaks, for instance, and others.

Next week, there are clay 15ks in Germany, Hungary, Czech Republic, Spain, as well as higher money clay tournaments in Switzerland, Bulgaria etc. to peel off the better players, and 15k hard court events in Portugal (and Tunisia?) to peel off some of the other low-ranked players.    


No. The cut offs at $25K or $25K+H have been nowhere near that severe, this year, or ever.

First: the '+H' designation has never worked, the added premium of points has never attracted a routinely higher class of players chasing the extra points.

Second: the cut offs would routinely allow WR 650 in to the main draw. 27 of the 117 $25K or $25K+H held this year have had a last DA acceptance to the main draw lower than 650.
I can only see five examples this year where WR650 wouldn't even get in to qualifying, and in all those cases it was due to a lack of events at all levels, or at an event in the second week of a big tournament (Slam or Premier Mandatory) with an ITF event in that second week, to which a lot of players having lost in the big event subsequently decamped to the local event on offer to attract them, and skewed the fields (presumably having registered for the event believing they would not make the second week of the big event, and wanted to take a shot at some 'cheap' points - was always most notable in the old $50K in Osprey, second week of Miami which had 14 top 100 players one year! but the effect is felt at $25K, to lesser extent, but enough to skew the fields upwards).

Here's all $25K & $25K+H
You can see the effect the '+H' premium has to the fields - none, they're in amongst the bunch.
The brown region shows where WR650 would have gotten in to the main draw. Grey region shows the median lines and quartiles.
hZUidCW.png

To show that the $25K+H weren't necessarily just the strongest events in their level in each week that they occurred, and so could have been attracting a premium for those weeks, here's the individual week data for each week that has contained a $25K+H

You can see that about half the time, the '+H' shows some statistically significant premium

9U4rgkn.png

Glasgow in Week 5 that was given as an example was one of the 5 exceptions that I mentioned above.
There were only 7 global ITF women's events in Week 5. Only 3 at or above $25K. Of those, the only one in Europe was Glasgow. It was top heavy stacked with all  the players that had failed in Australian open qualifying or early in the Slam irself, or who had just missed out on qualifying.
It is pretty much the single worst event to use as a benchmark against which to measure a norm.

The above is a bit rough and ready, as I'm just doing it on the fly, but I think it illustrates the point.

No doubt though, that a qualifying cut off of ~WR650 for $25K is exactly what ITF and the other tennis authorities are now aiming for, and will bring to pass from next year.
It has not always been at that level though, or anywhere near it, which is exactly why the ITF and tennis authorities are looking to cut it down in order to reduce the number of people plpaying tennis, as is their stated aim.



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Great graphs as always, AliB.

And glad that my figures for Glasgow and a couple of the others aren't wrong, even if the average is decidedly lower ranked.

But the principle still seems rights to me.

There should be a pecking order. i.e. 500, say, to get into qualis for a 60k, 650 to get into qualis for 25k+H, 800 to get into qualis for 25k and unranked to get into qualis for a 15k.

That's what a higher ranking gets you - the chance to play a higher tournament. You work your way up, starting at 15ks, getting the points to show you're ready to play the next level.



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Number of players on this week's Alts list. It does suggest that Europe could well have filled a few more events this week.

        Venue             No. in Alts list
$60K Budapest HUN    141

$25K+H Bagnatica ITA 139
$25K Nanao JPN          0
$25K Almaty KAZ        29

$15K Ricany CZE         47
$15K Yeongwol KOR     0
$15K Haren NED          26
$15K Asuncion PAR       5
$15K Moscow RUS        70
$15K Nonthaburi THA   0



-- Edited by Peter too on Sunday 26th of August 2018 07:01:07 PM

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Tennis legend

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There are 346 on the alt list at the moment for the 80k in Biaritz in week 37 - but that is before withdrawals. And 349 for the 25k at Santa Margherita, 245 for the 15k at Varna. So it appears that it is not just a one-off week.

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This week's post US Open rankings are largely positive for GBR, even if there are no major risers. The largest move up the rankings is Emily App, who rises 16 places, but is still outside the top 500 at 506. Within the top 10 both Heather and Katie S move up 9 places. Heather is now GB 107, just one place behind Katie B, and with the chance to go past her again this week in Quebec. There is also only one person who has a double digit fall this week and that is Maia, who falls 10 places.

Overall, the top 10 have a positive week being +16 collectively(+27-11). At the bottom end of the rankings, only Mandy secured a single point, and as Indy has pointed out a few times, we still don't have a guaranteed top 25 by year's end. This week we still have just 29 women with rankings.

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Rankings just to note that this week there are CHs amongst the GB players ranked in the 20s for Ella Taylor (803), Emma Raducanu (830) and Tiff Williams (930).

The GB top 10 was -7 with Heather's +15 helping to compensate for Laura's -12 and Naomi's -6.

The only double digit upward mover other than Heather was Sam (+25 to 467), whilst Emily Arb fell 207 places to 977.

Next week will see some bigger changes, however, as Tara loses 20 pts and falls outside the top 10 to GB#12, being replaced at 10 by Maia, whilst Beth also moves just past her into GB#11.

And finally we will have one new ranking member, Emilie Lind, but she will only replace Suzy Larkin in the rankings, who will drop out, leaving our total number of ranked players at just 29.

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Just to welcome Emilie Lindh finally new onto the WTA rankings this week at WR 1057 and GB #27. smile
Emilie is just the third new British woman onto the rankings this year, following Nell Miller and Emma Raducanu. The number of ranked Brits stays at 29 however as Suzy Larkin drops off. She has been on some alt lists for Australia, seemingly submitting some entries whilst she still had a ranking, but it's not clear if she will actually play in any tournaments.

Welcome too Maia Lumsden to the British top ten, WR 411, who replaces Tara in the top 10 this week. Tara falls to WR 444, behind Sarah Beth, who reaches a new CH at WR 440 and becomes GB #11.

Even though none of them gained points last week, other CH's are for:
Emily App 505
Ella Taylor 798
Emma Raducanu 822
Tiffany William 923
Alice Gillan 1024



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Steven shows the whole table for this week, but this section of 12 women from GB#9 to 20 is worth highlighting this week. First because of the changes in it, with three big leaps forward and CHs for Fran, Beth and Lissey. Second, because of Fran's entry into the GB top 10 for the first time at #9 - though Maia will move past her again next week. And third because this group is all so close, within 100 positions of each other, and as can be seen this week, with a lot of movement between them. Next week will be Eden's turn to show some rise in this group, along with Maia. 

Outside these 12 players the rankings also see another 5 players reach CHs - so 8 in all this week - which is an unusually large number. They are headed of course by Katie B, whose entry into the top 100 at 96 has already been celebrated. The other 4 CHs are:

Katie S - 164; Ella Taylor - 793; Tiffany William - 916; Emilie Lindh - 1029

So a better than normal week, even if there are falls at the end for Alice Gillan and Mirabelle, both of whom will lose their WTA rankings this year - Alice will maintain 2 ITF points into next year, Mirabelle none. Mandy Carreras is the other person who will also lose her ranking, in a week's time in fact. She is still entered in tournaments for weeks 43 and 44, so whether she is actually able to play again soon to regain it, we still wait to see. 

Week 42 excerpt

Screenshot 2018-10-15 02.19.04.png



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All-time great

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The dwindling number of women in the rankings this year has been noted often, mainly because of the lack of 15k events in the UK. Currently there are just 29 ranked GB players. As we all know now, things will shift quite a lot next year, with more players securing transition tour rankings, but comparatively fewer a WTA rank (and with a small number of players still in limbo with WTA points, but not the 3 counters and but with no separate ITF points).

In spite of the dwindling number, having recently having to get a new laptop before being able to update my own tables, what was striking for me is the number of GB players that have secure CHs in the last 3 weeks (counting tomorrow's predicted rankings). In order these are:
Katie Boulter - 92
Harriet Dart - 153
Katie Swan - 163
Gabi Taylor - 164
Maia Lumsden - 368
Fran Jones - 397
Jodie Burrage - 411
Eden Silva -436
Emily Appleton - 501
Lissey Barnett - 507
Emma Raducanu - 692
Ella Taylor - 785
Tiff William - 786
Emilie Lindh -1029 (equal CH)
Kasia Pitak - 1094
Anna Popescu - 1094
Ola Pitak - 1169 (now UNR again)

This is 17 players altogether. Not all these players are still at these rankings of course, and in Ola's case was just a fleeting one week back in the rankings until she secures another counter again. But the overall point is that despite the comparative lack of tournaments in the UK our women players that are managing to play are continuing to push upwards (with Emma R and Tiff both due further significant increases in another week's time).






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Well said. cry

Tiff

Emelie

Alice G.

K Pitak

A Pitak - as noted - needs to get a ranking back - at Sharm this week.

Anna P.

All go into ITF TT.

Threadbare or what? confuse What are they playing at?



-- Edited by Strongbow on Saturday 3rd of November 2018 10:06:09 PM

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Michael D wrote:

The dwindling number of women in the rankings this year has been noted often, mainly because of the lack of 15k events in the UK. Currently there are just 29 ranked GB players. As we all know now, things will shift quite a lot next year, with more players securing transition tour rankings, but comparatively fewer a WTA rank (and with a small number of players still in limbo with WTA points, but not the 3 counters and but with no separate ITF points).

In spite of the dwindling number, having recently having to get a new laptop before being able to update my own tables, what was striking for me is the number of GB players that have secure CHs in the last 3 weeks (counting tomorrow's predicted rankings). In order these are:
Katie Boulter - 92
Harriet Dart - 153
Katie Swan - 163
Gabi Taylor - 164
Maia Lumsden - 368
Fran Jones - 397
Jodie Burrage - 411
Eden Silva -436
Emily Appleton - 501
Lissey Barnett - 507
Emma Raducanu - 692
Ella Taylor - 785
Tiff William - 786
Emilie Lindh -1029 (equal CH)
Kasia Pitak - 1094
Anna Popescu - 1094
Ola Pitak - 1169 (now UNR again)

This is 17 players altogether. Not all these players are still at these rankings of course, and in Ola's case was just a fleeting one week back in the rankings until she secures another counter again. But the overall point is that despite the comparative lack of tournaments in the UK our women players that are managing to play are continuing to push upwards (with Emma R and Tiff both due further significant increases in another week's time).





 What's interesting about this list is that they are all 25 or under (and mostly under 23)  By contrast according to Steven's tables every single female GB player aged 26 or over has fallen in the rankings during 2018.



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SuperT wrote:
Michael D wrote:

The dwindling number of women in the rankings this year has been noted often, mainly because of the lack of 15k events in the UK. Currently there are just 29 ranked GB players. As we all know now, things will shift quite a lot next year, with more players securing transition tour rankings, but comparatively fewer a WTA rank (and with a small number of players still in limbo with WTA points, but not the 3 counters and but with no separate ITF points).

In spite of the dwindling number, having recently having to get a new laptop before being able to update my own tables, what was striking for me is the number of GB players that have secure CHs in the last 3 weeks (counting tomorrow's predicted rankings). In order these are:
Katie Boulter - 92
Harriet Dart - 153
Katie Swan - 163
Gabi Taylor - 164
Maia Lumsden - 368
Fran Jones - 397
Jodie Burrage - 411
Eden Silva -436
Emily Appleton - 501
Lissey Barnett - 507
Emma Raducanu - 692
Ella Taylor - 785
Tiff William - 786
Emilie Lindh -1029 (equal CH)
Kasia Pitak - 1094
Anna Popescu - 1094
Ola Pitak - 1169 (now UNR again)

This is 17 players altogether. Not all these players are still at these rankings of course, and in Ola's case was just a fleeting one week back in the rankings until she secures another counter again. But the overall point is that despite the comparative lack of tournaments in the UK our women players that are managing to play are continuing to push upwards (with Emma R and Tiff both due further significant increases in another week's time).





 What's interesting about this list is that they are all 25 or under (and mostly under 23)  By contrast according to Steven's tables every single female GB player aged 26 or over has fallen in the rankings during 2018.


 Our U25 players outnumber our 26+ ones though. I don't see forum faves Sam Murray or EWS getting much higher but Heather and Jo and Naomi - they are all better than their current rankings.



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flamingowings wrote:
SuperT wrote:
Michael D wrote:

The dwindling number of women in the rankings this year has been noted often, mainly because of the lack of 15k events in the UK. Currently there are just 29 ranked GB players. As we all know now, things will shift quite a lot next year, with more players securing transition tour rankings, but comparatively fewer a WTA rank (and with a small number of players still in limbo with WTA points, but not the 3 counters and but with no separate ITF points).

In spite of the dwindling number, having recently having to get a new laptop before being able to update my own tables, what was striking for me is the number of GB players that have secure CHs in the last 3 weeks (counting tomorrow's predicted rankings). In order these are:
Katie Boulter - 92
Harriet Dart - 153
Katie Swan - 163
Gabi Taylor - 164
Maia Lumsden - 368
Fran Jones - 397
Jodie Burrage - 411
Eden Silva -436
Emily Appleton - 501
Lissey Barnett - 507
Emma Raducanu - 692
Ella Taylor - 785
Tiff William - 786
Emilie Lindh -1029 (equal CH)
Kasia Pitak - 1094
Anna Popescu - 1094
Ola Pitak - 1169 (now UNR again)

This is 17 players altogether. Not all these players are still at these rankings of course, and in Ola's case was just a fleeting one week back in the rankings until she secures another counter again. But the overall point is that despite the comparative lack of tournaments in the UK our women players that are managing to play are continuing to push upwards (with Emma R and Tiff both due further significant increases in another week's time).





 What's interesting about this list is that they are all 25 or under (and mostly under 23)  By contrast according to Steven's tables every single female GB player aged 26 or over has fallen in the rankings during 2018.


 Our U25 players outnumber our 26+ ones though. I don't see forum faves Sam Murray or EWS getting much higher but Heather and Jo and Naomi - they are all better than their current rankings.


 Out of interest, why do you think Watson is better than her current rank and where would you say a more realistic placing would be?



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I am pretty excited by Harriet, Katie B, Katie S and Gabby who should all continue to improve next year, Fran and Emma have the same if not more potential in Emmas case. Emily App and Jodie hopefully are slow burners who will push into the top 200 over the next couple of years. Eden Richardson has really stepped it up at LSU and is already a genuinely elite college player already. Emily Arb is excelling academically in an academically challenging environment and an NCAA team champion and all American and .... I think I can forgive the dropped points and the academic pressure will probably continue. 2003, Holly Fischer is still a top prospect if she can get fit and the 2004s also look decent Matilda Matuavdzic particularly so. Who knows exactly to whom Joanna Garland will finally commit.

To be honest I didnt expect Harriet, Katie B or Gaby T to make the impact they have when I watched them all back in Wimbledon Q in 2015. These girls have done good!

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"Who knows exactly to whom Joanna Garland will finally commit."

This would be nice......on condition, of course, that the Canadians or the Chinese don't steal Emma

And, more seriously, that Fran's wrists hold out.

But I remember those qualis in 2015 And did indeed have a pound on Harriet and Katie B on the 500:200:100. (Gaby's odds were awful because she'd won that round, completely unexpectedly, in 2014, so that skuppered that anyway. Katie Swan always had too high a profile too).

Also, had one on Jodie and Freya, so I would like them to shake a leg, please. Or two.
Eden Silva can turn it on when she wants too.

But, as you say, it's an exciting group.

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