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All-time great

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Rankings


After a week that had much initial promise but ended rather disastrously, GBs top 10 average is almost unchanged this week +16-14=+2

In the top 10 there is a CH for Katie B though, who moves up 8 places to 106.

There is also promising upward movement, including a bunch of CHs for the group just outside the top 10, which is the better news for the week.

Maia up 17 to 400 = CH
Beth up 7 to 442 = CH
Fran up 13 to 453 = CH
Jodie up 17 to 486
Eden up 25 to 492
Freya up 31 to 531

Other new CHs are:
Emily App up 67 to 570
Ella Taylor up 12 to 821
Tiff up 52 to 934.

At the lower end of the rankings, Emma Hurst now drops off reducing the number of ranked GB players to just 30. It will go under 30 before the end of this month.

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Just to pause and say thanks again to Steven to his wonderful tables....

(And others too who provide excellent charts etc)

Thanks to which, it highlights that of our top 25 women, 17 are in positive territory this year. Only 8 have gone down. Of those 8, there are 2 that really should not count (Amanda and Laura R) as they have not played or barely played due to injury.
Of course, of the 6 real ones who have dropped, 3 are/were our leading contenders - JoKo, Hev and Naomi.
Which is a major blow for the spearhead of the women's effort.
But the jumps by the others is so significant that it really does look good:
11 have double-digit rises, Katie B's counts the same - one should do percentage rise, of course,
only 3 out of those 17 risers have what you would call inconsequential rises
I know we worry about where the next batch will come from to keep up the numbers but it certainly looks rosy - or in fact not rosy as steven's table has rises in blue and falls in pink (do like that turquoise colour.....)

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Obviously just the way the 12 month rankings work and it's not Kiki Mladenovic-esq who cracked the top 10 for the first time last October despite literally being on a 10 match losing streak, but it's strange seeing Maia at a career high of 400 given the form she has been on, basically since Glasgow in February, or certainly since mid May (currently on a 5-11 run). She does have quite a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks / months so if that form continues, we won't be taking about career highs or upward trajectories much longer.

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The top 10 this week is -1 with Katie B +3, Heather +17 and Harriet +1. Jo is then -7, Naomi -3 and Laura and Tara -6. There is no change in the order of the top 10.

This weeks's CHs go to Katie B, up 3 to 103, Lissey up 20 to 533 (and beats her previous CH by 2), Ella Taylor up 11 to 810 and Tiff Williams up 1 to 933.

The other significant mover this week was Sam Murray up 40 to 495 and back into the top 500, following her Chiswick run.

Olivia Nicholls as dropped off the rankings, so now we are down to 29 ranked GB women, the first time to fall below 30 for may years I should think, though I will leave it to others to say when that was.



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This coming week 10 British girls put their names down for one or both of the $60K in Hungary and the $25K+H in Italy. None of them appear in the Qualifying tournament. From those who did get through Emily Arbuthnot and Amanda Carreras should have made it, so I suspect they withdrew. However it does suggest there is a shortage of suitable clay tournaments in Europe this week. $15K events in Romania and Tunisia both got cancelled this week.



-- Edited by Peter too on Saturday 25th of August 2018 09:58:43 AM

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I have noticed recently that there have been an awful lot of entries by our unranked girls all over europe. Most of them are way down the alt list, and dont stand a chance of getting into the draw. But they are entering the 60k and 25k tournaments as we as th 15ks. As you say, there is a big gap in the 15ks, although some of the more distant countries seem to be able to stage them with very weak fields.

I also noted that Emily and Mandy are well down the entrt list for every rournament they have entered over the next few weeks.

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Peter too wrote:

This coming week 10 British girls put their names down for one or both of the $60K in Hungary and the $25K+H in Italy. None of them appear in the Qualifying tournament. From those who did get through Emily Arbuthnot and Amanda Carreras should have made it, so I suspect they withdrew. However it does suggest there is a shortage of suitable clay tournaments in Europe this week. $15K events in Romania and Tunisia both got cancelled this week.


This is probably a preview of next year, and the foreseeable future. We're going to have a lot fewer players active each week, in a lot fewer locations.
If there aren't GB events in a given week, we may well often have no one playing at all, dependent on the provision and distribution of events for the GB top ~6-8.

$15K are being cancelled and not renewed all over the world already. Some new places have tried to stage events, like Ecuador, and El Salvador, but had to cancel - the El Salvador event that was held had to have Byes in the MD.

I think the golden age where we mostly have some sort of interest into at least a Friday of any given week is probably over from 2019 - a lot feweer threads and posts here consequentially.



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Yes I think various countries and tournaments have taken a bit of umbrage that their tournaments will no longer be part of the main rankings set-up, the Turks certainly seeming being among these that have taken their ball home and aren't playing anymore.



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Peter too wrote:

This coming week 10 British girls put their names down for one or both of the $60K in Hungary and the $25K+H in Italy. None of them appear in the Qualifying tournament. From those who did get through Emily Arbuthnot and Amanda Carreras should have made it, so I suspect they withdrew. However it does suggest there is a shortage of suitable clay tournaments in Europe this week. $15K events in Romania and Tunisia both got cancelled this week.



-- Edited by Peter too on Saturday 25th of August 2018 09:58:43 AM


I don't understand this; Michael made a similar comment regarding Mandy last week. Even if you allow for the 2 direct acceptance not taken by SE and all the WCs, they are still too far down the alt list to get into qualifying unless there are no shows or late withdrawals from those above them. When you are at 38 in the alt list, how should you have made it into qualifying?

On the scheduling, the problem is since the week of Chiswick and until the middle of September there are very few 25Ks at all, while there is an oversupply of 15Ks. The few 25Ks that are scheduled are nearly all clay, hence why you are seeing the likes of Maia and Sam playing 15Ks. There are still plenty of 15K clay tournaments this week despite the cancellations, but Em and Mandy are choosing not to play them. There are a lot more 25Ks on the entry lists that will close Thursday coming, so I expect Mandy should be able to get into one of them.

I wonder if the number of unranked British girls entering tournaments is a consequence of the realisation of the changes next year sinking in. I had put together a list of all the British girls from the shadow rankings for a couple of weeks ago and it is concerning. There are over 2,300 women with a shadow ITF ranking. There are 75 British girls with either a shadow WTA or ITF ranking, but as would be expected many of our unranked girls, and one with a ranking, are below 750 in the shadow ITF rankings. With the reduced number of direct acceptance places and reduced qualifying draw sizes, they are going to struggle to get into any 15K next year. So they either need more 15K points or to get themselves enough WTA points for a WTA ranking which will take precedence over the ITF ranking for direct acceptance places.

It remains to be seen what a typical cutoff will be in the 15Ks next year, but there was (on the 13 Aug shadow rankings) a big gap between GB27, Emilie Lindh, at 481 in the shadow ITF rankings and GB28, Anna Popescu, at 744 in the shadow WTA/ITF rankings.

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Yes, like Redsquirrel, I don't see the problem.
Peter laments the lack of clay tournaments this week in Europe. But clay is not a given. Anyway, there are tons of 15ks in the next few weeks, as Redsquirrel says. And quite a lot of them on clay.
My understanding from people I know is that the cancellations in Turkey have absolutely nothing to do with the change to the transition tour. It's all connected to the political problems. Don[t know about Roumania.
There is really no change for tournaments next year, same money, effectively the same points, i.e. points that allow you to move up to the next level if you get enough but not points that give access directly to WTA, say, because they don't give enough of them.
I wonder if it's connected to the betting - didn't some official state that betting would not be allowed on transition tour events (and the existing agreements in place would not be valid, hence how the ITF can refuse to honour the old agreements). Or was that just a possibility?

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Cheers CD for info re Turkey and sorry if I offended any of our Turkish friends.

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More complicated than this.
If you are a resort, or location and your business model is, at least in part, built around providing entry level events to the tennis tour, well, you no longer do that. You provide entry level to the tour that provides entry level.
You can argue that it's the same thing, but it's not. Or, even if it is, it doesn't appear that way on the surface - the answer will come, "well why isn't it just entry onto the tour like it used to be?". That extra layer of abstraction is enough to be an impediment. Many good ideas, or realities of fact, have been undone by the appearance of something else, at least in the public perception. Sharm, Heraklion, Hammamet, Antalya (even without the political considerations) have all cut their ambitions, and will run fewer tournaments next year, most almost to zero, from a regular 25+ events a year. Other locations that have tried to fill a gap have lessened their ambition, Bol, Nonthaburi, Obidos, all indicated fewer events, and more likely to hold $25K instead. They need to make money, or at least lose little enough money to make the upshot viable.
The ITF/WTA/general powers that be state that a large part of the aim with the changes is to reduce the total amount of professionals (ranked players - professional to me doesn't necessarily mean ranked player, so it's important to note what the authorities are meaning here - ranked players) to ~750 from the current ~1200. That's a reduction of over a third. The market must logically reduce for the resorts that had attracted low level players.
Fewer, but more competitive events is the result, sure. But, that will mean we have fewer players able to meet the new standard, and fewer active each week. Unless they have some sort of outstanding junior pedigree they are not going to be able to fund travel to the few $15K that are left, and even if they do, they won't be able to get in to qualifying for them, as the standard, and rankings of players trying to earn a spot in these now more competitive events will be higher.
So they have to be good juniors, or looking for a spot in GB events - even of they get a spot in GB events, how are they going to compete going in cold? Well history tells us even under the current system they fare poorly. Under a further increased threshold, they'll fail. At some point, someone will say, they're failing so often, so badly, why are we even giving them the chance, wasting the effort and money, and spots on them? That will push people out of the game, by design.
Of the curernt crop, of junior eligible players we'd probably have Raducanu, Jones, maybe one other that got some chances. Ther'll be no Mirabelle's, no Suzy's, probably no Jade Windley's, Lucy Brown's, Maia Lumsden's?
But that is all by design. Tennis only wants players that they believe can play WTA level tennis regularly to have a career, a time, in tennis. It does not want a Little league system anmore, it wants the minor leagues and the major leagues.
As fans of ITF and low level tennis, we suffer, but no one in power cares about that, and in general, tennis doesn't either, we're a vanishingly small minority of the tennis audience, and WTA/ATP & ITF would all rather court new blood in to the game by promoting things like hot-dogs and racquet smashes rather than forehands and backhands, because, it's an easier sell.
There's no anger in what I'm saying, not really, just an acknowledgement that a business decision has been made to ruthlessly weed out everything below a certain level. We'll get less tennis to follow, but it will be a higher quality.
Is the GB tennis infrastructure well placed to accommodate that new landscape and produce a consistent production line of talent able to drop in to the deep end where WR750 is the *starting* expectation? Doubtful. It's hard enough to suppoort a career as is, even if you're WR~250 (ask Lisa Whybourn), now unless you're great immediately, you might not get a ranking until your mid 20s. I doubt anyone, and certainly any tennis association is going to stick with a player that long.

I'm rambling.

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You are probably right even in the $25K+H event Emily at 18th and Amanda at 26th on the Alts list would have just missed out, at least two girls below them got in via a WC. That however still doesn't detract from the issue of 10 British girls trying to get in events but not getting through. It looks as if you now need a ranking of around 600 to get into a $25K+H qualifying event.



-- Edited by Peter too on Sunday 26th of August 2018 03:24:53 AM

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Peter too wrote:

You are probably right even in the $25K+H event Emily at 18th and Amanda at 26th on the Alts list would have just missed out, at least two girls below them got in via a WC. That however still doesn't detract from the issue of 10 British girls trying to get in events but not getting through. It looks as if you now need a ranking of around 600 to get into a $25K+H qualifying event.



-- Edited by Peter too on Sunday 26th of August 2018 03:24:53 AM


Which seems about right. And isn't that pretty much what it has been all year (ignoring wildcards)? And before? 

The Glasgow event in Feb. was only a 25k, not 25+H, but had a similar cut-off in qualis.

The fact that 10 lowly-ranked/unranked GB girls didn't get into a 60k or a 25+H quali is hardly shocking or anything different.

And there are tons of 15k clay events. Which are the events suitable to the Pitaks, for instance, and others.

Next week, there are clay 15ks in Germany, Hungary, Czech Republic, Spain, as well as higher money clay tournaments in Switzerland, Bulgaria etc. to peel off the better players, and 15k hard court events in Portugal (and Tunisia?) to peel off some of the other low-ranked players.     

 

 



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