Week 34 - US Open women's qualifying - Hard

steven · Tennis legend

Week 34 - US Open women's qualifying - Hard

philwrig · Hall of fame

Has Sam pulled out ? or am I missing something ?

steven · Tennis legend

No, my fault! Edited in now

steven · Tennis legend

QR1: (q8) Johanna Konta WR 112 v Olivia Rogowska (AUS) WR 152 (CH 108 last Oct)

4th on Court 13 on Tuesday. First meeting. Other seed in section - (q18) Koehler (POR)

QR1: Tara Moore WR 208 v Catalina Castaño (COL) WR 176 (CH 35 in 2006)

Wednesday. First meeting. Seeds in section - (q9) Zanevska (UKR) & (q17) Dushevina (RUS)

QR1: Samantha Murray WR 190 v Arina Rodionova (AUS) WR 220 (CH 157 in 2010)

Wednesday. H2H 1-0, 4 & 2, Bendigo 25K 2011. They've got both Rodionovas down as AUS, this one is usually RUS. Update: apparently, Arina plays slams for AUS and all other tournaments for RUS. Weird! Seeds in section - (q11) Birnerová (CZE) & (q29) Bratchikova (RUS)

QR1: Elena Baltacha WR 244 v (q23) Melanie Oudin (USA) WR 133 (CH 31 in 2010)

4th on Court 17 (though match 1 is blank!) on Tuesday. H2H 1-0, 0 & 1, Carlsbad WTA 2011 - something tells me it won't be so easy this time! Other seed in section - (q12) Larcher de Brito (POR)

I have mentioned the seeds in the Brits' sections but there are dangerous players lurking around every corner, it seems.

-- Edited by steven on Monday 19th of August 2013 11:15:05 PM

paulisi · Tennis legend

I assume Joko will be seeded.

philwrig · Hall of fame

No cakewalk draw for JoKo, but still very doable.
Nice opener for Tara, then much tougher but still doable.
Ditto really for Sam.
Bally tough opener but again chances to qualify.

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

I think all four are good enough to qualify, realistically I think only one will (JoKo being the most likely). Could do with some support next week for our not 100% fit top two.

steven · Tennis legend

Probabilities from TennisAbstract (see men's thread for a brief explanation):

JoKo 60.8% to reach QR2 (or better), 40.0% to make the FQR (or better), 24.6% to qualify, though she is the slight favourite to qualify cf Koehler on 22.9%

Tara 48.3%, 19.1% & 9.0%

Sam 55.2%, 22.2% & 9.7%

Bally 29.2%, 10.3% & 3.6%

Across the men and women combined, that gives expected numbers reaching each stage as follows:

QR2: 3.08 (out of 6)

FQR: 1.41

QUAL: 0.69 (ouch!)

philwrig · Hall of fame

Based on those odds I would take 30 odd to 1 on Bally qualifying, in fact IMO she has a much better chance of qualifying than either Tara or Sam. Jo for me is heavy favourite to beat Livvy Rogowska, so should be shorter than 60.8 % to beat her and so I would make her shorter than say 3/1 to qualify more like 2/1 for me.
I think both Tara's and Sam's % chances are fair.( Sam has the easiest section )

PaulM · Tennis legend

Steven, Bally is 3rd on Court 17.

I think the "intentially blank" first line is because of the later start time on that court (1pm instead of 11).

There was streaming last year, and qualies is against being televised in the US. If there is a stream available, it's almost certainly to include Court 17, which is a pretty massive show court.

EDIT - stream confirmed for Court 17 http://www.streamhunter.eu/tennis-live-streaming-video.html

-- Edited by PaulM on Tuesday 20th of August 2013 09:09:29 AM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Quote from Steven (above): Update: apparently, Arina plays slams for AUS and all other tournaments for RUS. Weird!

Absolutely. Not really important but don't understand that at all - how does that work ?

Miriambee · Futures level

Jo is playing 4th on court 13 (11am local start - that's presumably 4pm British time start.)

philwrig · Hall of fame

steven wrote:
Probabilities from TennisAbstract (see men's thread for a brief explanation):

JoKo 60.8% to reach QR2 (or better), 40.0% to make the FQR (or better), 24.6% to qualify, though she is the slight favourite to qualify cf Koehler on 22.9%

Tara 48.3%, 19.1% & 9.0%

Sam 55.2%, 22.2% & 9.7%

Bally 29.2%, 10.3% & 3.6%

Across the men and women combined, that gives expected numbers reaching each stage as follows:

QR2: 3.08 (out of 6)

FQR: 1.41

QUAL: 0.69 (ouch!)

Official bookies odds for reaching QR2 are 68% for Jo and 45% for Bally.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Coup Droit wrote:
Quote from Steven (above): Update: apparently, Arina plays slams for AUS and all other tournaments for RUS. Weird!

Absolutely. Not really important but don't understand that at all - how does that work ?

Makes no sense to me either ! Arina was turned down for Aussie citizenship at the beginning of 2012, but has been allowed to have AUS after her name at every slam since. If I remember rightly JoKo asked to have GB after her name for the 2008 Wimby but was turned down as she hadn't gained British citizenship at that stage. So I am perplexed to put it mildly.

PaulM · Tennis legend

Thats beyond disappointing. Peaked too early in the swing i guess as she was playing so well. Poor result and a huge opportunity missed. Big points too but at least she banked lots on the run up so it's not too big a hit. Will be hard to break top 100 this year but a few good runs over the autumn and she's still set up nicely for Oz.

Shame as it was a nice looking section. Really didn't see it coming To be honest. I don't rate Liv that highly, but her serving stats today were impressive so have to give her credit.

-- Edited by PaulM on Tuesday 20th of August 2013 11:04:24 PM