I started a similar topic this time last year so thought i would do the same again as it has been an interesting year.
I would like to know what people think about the rise of 'Wabson' and their great end to the season. More generally, looking at Steven's great T25 table, i see that in week 23 for example most of the girls had experienced a negative change in ranking due to a lacklusture first half of the year but the current table is looking very different. I just wish they could recover well enough from the xmas period to keep the momentum going, especially Tara, Sam and JoKo.
So what has been everyone's highlights? For me Watson's WTA win and Sams great end to the year stand out. As for disappointments, what has happened to Naomi Broady and AnnieK?
Would also appreciate if anyone can tell me of any juniors who have a good year so I can look out for them in 2013. Thanks!
Certainly as Scouseandy says, the year has picked up after a not too promising beginning. With both Heather and Laura that was injury effected, though few of us would have guessed how they would take off later in the year.
Including JoKo in all figures for relative comparison, the combined top 10 rankings a year ago totalled 2081. After week 23 this year that had fallen to 2177. Now it is 2024, up 57 on a year ago. From last year's top 10, Sam, Lisa and Amanda have moved in and Emily, Mel and the now retired Katie moved out.
Inevitably just looking at the current top 10 including the incomers the figures look much more impressive, and indeed the current top 10 had a combined ranking a year ago of 2556, so at 2024 that is up 532 on a year ago. Apart from Elena and Anne, all of that current top 10 is stil reasonably young ( tenniswise ) or significantly on the rise, but it would be unrealistic not to think some will have issues next year ( such as Emily and Mel this year and the still in the top 10 Naomi ).
Now as I say, the combined top 10 rankings are now (at 2024 to 2081) a bit but not hugely ahead of a year ago. But I do think the profile is quite a bit better ( in particular Heather and Laura as the top 2 rather than Elena and Anne ) and I like not just their improvement, but such as JoKo's and Sam's as well. Very promising latter part to the year, and promises much for next year.
One thing to be said though is that's with respect to the top players. As discussed elsewhere before, get anywhere much beyond that top 10 and the depth is as poor as it has been in many a year. We may also have some wait for top juniors coming through, but Jazzi Plews does look exciting and others of her age group. Of slightly older, I am hopeful that Eleanor Dean will come again, if and when clear of injury troubles, and Harriet Dart is progressing well with some very good senior results.
A few figures re how we might expect significant first half of year improvement in rankings given how certain players improved over this year.
Heather 1161 points : Of these 421 pre Wimbledon ( 171 pre Roland Garros ) and 740 Wimbledon on ( Wimbledon 160 )
Laura : 1131 points : Of these 261 pre Wimbledon ( 102 pre Roland Garros ) and 870 Wimbledon on ( Wimbledon 5 )
JoKo : 441 points : 170 pre Wimbledon and 271 Wimbledon on ( 160 from the US Open )
Sam : 203 points : 36 pre Wimbledon and 167 Wimbledon on ( 140 October on )
Tara : 197 points : 41 pre Wimbledon ( 4 pre late May ) and 156 Wimbledon on ( 64 from Kazan in August ) - can Tara have a productive first half for once ?
Amanda : 132 points : 31 pre Wimbledon ( 3 pre late April ) and 101 Wimbledon on
I do think korriban's post was a very good analysis and won't add anything much more to that, other than, yes as discussed in the Dubai thread, great progress by Sam. most very recent. While I thought she seemed a solid player since coming back on tour, I really didn't see any great momentum ( eg. WR 374 prior to Glasgow, WR 469 a year before, so steady if unspectacular improvement ), but what a few weeks she has had to now be WR 255. With regard to Tara, she is one who should certainly improve her current ranking quite a bit and I would be pretty confident that she can maintain it to end next year within the top 250 anyway, and maybe nearer WR 200 than WR 250.
-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 27th of November 2012 07:49:03 PM
I'll have a stab. I want everyone to do well being a massive Brit tennis fan, with no particular favourites. Where I see an issue (or an opportunity) with a specific player, I tend to speak my mind - but its never intended to be nasty or personal. If I do cross the line, I hope someone will tell me off!!
Heather. A brilliant end to the year, especially given that it started relatively slowly. Top 50 is more than most of the forum predicted for her, let alone a WTA win. Can't fault her - my favourite moment was her beating Cirstea from 0-5 down, which tells you everything you need to know about this girl. I'm confident she will train like mad and add more power to her serve and ground strokes this winter. I think this will get her to around the top 30 by year end, and perhaps to another WTA final/win, but I think that's the limit for 2013. I suspect it may be her limit overall, but with Heather you just never know.
Laura. Another brilliant year - well a brilliant second half to the year. Again, very few forum users predicted her to be around top 50, and on late season form she was probably playing top 30 level. Her fitness and movement have stepped up a notch, her consistency has been aided by being in position and on-balance for more wider balls, she has added patience, and she has shown more mental resilience than ever before at the business end of sets and matches. Her groundstrokes are even more powerful than ever, rocking even top players back. Still lots to do on serve (very on and off), movement and tactics, which is exciting. Very few early season points to defend, so I'd predict top 30 within the first half of the year, and (if injury free) top 20 by year end. At this point, one of the few world newcomers you could say COULD be top 5 one day (even if most never get there).
Elena and Anne. Poor years for both, albeit Elena affected by injury. Personally I see them now as "cameo" players, perhaps able to pull off one great match or a good tournament run, but over a season, and with their low starting ranking, I fear they may well go sideways or backwards unless the season starts strongly for them. Would be great to have a few "last hurrahs", ideally at Wimbledon, but I'm not seing it.
Jo. Breakthrough year. Now British and now top 200. And she could (should) have made the US Open Round 3, having played so well in New York. Back end of the year was a damp squib in comparison, which was a let down. I don't see many obvious weapons, but a decent all round game, and a strong will to win. At this point, I could see her sneak into the top 100, but a more likely scenario is her floating around the 100-200 mark all year - I don't see her dropping back down again. I think if she's 120-130 at year end, I'd take that now and regard it as consolidation.
Sam. Brilliant year, especially the back end. I haven't seen her play, so can't really comment sensibly on potential. However, based on results, she appears to already be playing at about 150 level at the end of 2012, and I'm sure she'd be delighted if her ranking reflected that this time next year. Her momentum since re-joining the tour in late 2010 would suggest that is very possible, and if there is further improvement who knows?! I'm sure she's very excited and motivated going into winter break. 150ish for me.
Tara. She's only 20 and we often hear comparisons with Heather, who was the number 2 GB junior to Tara in the relevant age group. They are both bubbly, talented and young. Tara seems to have very good days, very bad days and a lot in the middle. She seems to have an attacking style and great groundstrokes. She's moved up 50 ranking places on the year. But issues with the LTA in the past suggested a less enthusiastic attitude to the required lifestyle and training compared to Heather, and even if that is behind her, you wouldn't yet single her out as appearing to be one of the fitter or more athletic players on the court. This might hold her back. Tara could certainly make top 150-200 next year, but I'm guessing 300ish at year end.
Naomi. A poor year, albeit with some green shoots at the end. She has a brilliant serve (a fast serve anyway) and I've noticed this is a problem for most opponents in the first set of matches, but it can also become a liability as they get used to it towards the end of matches. I'm not sure if she has relied too much on her serve in the past, neglecting her groundstrokes, which can be inconsistent. Her backhand is often praised, but it looks strangely produced to me and can be very hit and miss, and many people have cited her forehand as weak - anyway lots to improve which is good. She tries and works very hard, so no issues on that score. I fear Naomi's journey into the top 200 might have been a one off unless she tackles these technical challenges, but really hope she gets back up there by whatever means.
Lisa and Amanda. Only seen Lisa once and never Amanda, so again can't comment, but their improvement in the rankings has been very strong. Lisa should benefit from working at the bath academy with Sam Murray during the off-season and this rivalry should certainly push Lisa harder. From what I saw of her game, lots to work on, especially serve, so a target in the low 200s could be achievable.
I'd rather not comment on the middle of the table, except to say that there is noone there who has been singled out for obvious stardom, although anything can happen, of course.
Of the juniors - Harriet Dart has made good progress at the back end of the year to around an 800 ranking and is worth watching next year. There may be a few "moments" for the younger players in 2013, hopefully for Eleanor Dean who was MIA (with injury) for much of the year in juniors and ITFS, but I think its likely we may need to wait until the 1998/1999 year group for the next generation of Heather and Laura level prospects (Plews, Taylor, Lumsden), and they are unlikely/unable to be focussing on ITF next year.
Overall much to look forward to in 2013 - a very interesting top 10, some with unlimited potential, a few with a great 2012 to build on and a couple with a lot of questions to answer. Plus some juniors to cheer on too, starting this week and next.
Thanks Korriban. I can't fault much of the analysis or opinion here - pretty spot on! Perhaps I'm being a little optimistic (which is uncharacteristic for me!) but I've seen Joko play a number of top players this year and for me she definitely has potential to be top 75. She's been fairly unlucky with injuries but a clean first 6 months of next year could see her sneak into top 100.
Really disappointed with Anne. It's just not working for her and I think a change of coach is needed. Perhaps someone who can work on her negativity during matches. She could switch to doubles but her serve isn't really consistent enough to be a top doubles player.
Plews is a very exciting prospect. It's going to be fun watching her rise the junior rankings next year. Nervous about Dean, she was making some fantastic progress under Robbo's former coach on the clay but injury has seriously derailed this. Fingers crossed for her.
Amanda Carreras has shot up the table this year, the fourth highest % riser after Laura, Jo and Heather, and has very few points to protect before late April so could make significant progress if she can carry through her performance from the 2nd half of the year.
What is Katy Dunne doing these days? I saw her play in Bournemouth in 2011 and was very impressed. She drew Bianca Koch, the 6th seed ranked 635 in the 1st round and pushed her all the way. She still seems to be playing quite a bit of junior tennis but very little senior tennis. She could move into the senior tournaments this year unless she is off to Uni.
Found some stats here summarising all WTA all main draw match in 2012 ( http://www.tennisforum.com/showthread.php?t=470442 )
Makes for some interesting reading with regards to Laura & Heather serving styles (All stats from the 116 players to play 15 or more WTA main draw matches):
Laura:
14th best % of 1st serves that are aces 12th best % of points won on 1st serve
but:
88th best % of first serves in 76th best % of points won on 2nd serve 11th highest double fault %
Heather meanwhile has the opposite profile:
20th best % of first serves in 90th highest double fault %
but:
37th best % of 1st serves aces 51st best % of points won on 1st serve 90st best % of points won on 2nd serve
Here's to hoping for a better 2nd serve from both of them in 2013.
Sometimes when I watch Heather I think she should go for it more on her first serve, but maybe these stats suggest why she doesn't i.e. looking to protect the second serve with a high 1st serve %. Laura has the opposite approach, always going for a bigger 1st serve, but on bad serving days her % can be very low.
