Bringing together stuff on the thread for the Hungary tie which is relevant to 2012 (I'll amend the thread title after Wednesday's draw, obviously):
Unlike E-A Zone Group II, which always has 16 teams, the size of Group I varies depending on how many European and African teams have survived to play in the World Group again. In 2012, as in 2011, there will be 11 teams in Group 1.
Four of the teams will be seeded (see the R2 list below) and will automatically get byes in R1 and one of other teams will get a bye as well. Poland got the extra bye in 2011, so I think it must be assigned at random instead of going to the 5th highest ranked team in the group.
10-12 February - Round 1
Possible R1 ties for GB are:
- Finland at home - Slovakia at home
- Denmark, venue decided by lot
- Netherlands away - Portugal away - Slovenia away
- bye (i.e. one of the 7 unseeded teams will get a bye in R1)
6-8 April - Round 2
Possible opponents if we win our R1 tie or we get the spare R1 bye are the seeded teams:
- (1) Israel away - (2) South Africa away - (3) Belgium, venue decided by lot - (4) Romania away
14-16 Sep - World Group playoffs & relegation ties
If we win a R2 tie, we will be in the playoffs for a place in the 2013 World Group.
If we lose our first tie (whether it is in R1 or in R2 after a R1 bye), we will have to play a relegation tie.
If we win a R1 tie then lose in R2, we will be in Group 1 in 2013 as well and will not play in September at all.
Home tie probabilities
February: home 35.7%, away 50.0%, bye 14.3%
April, if we are in R2: home 12.5%, away 87.5%
-- Edited by steven on Monday 19th of September 2011 02:56:28 PM
-- Edited by steven on Wednesday 21st of September 2011 02:40:49 PM
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
It couldn't have worked out any better as far as accessible ties go - one of just two definite home ties then the only tie that wouldn't definitely be away, against a team likely to play its home ties in the most accessible capital city from a UK point of view, i.e. Brussels is even closer by Eurostar than Paris.
Of course, this just increases the likelihood of a string of away ties further down the line, but who know which teams will be in the same groups as us in future, so let's just take the accessible ties while we can.
GBR v SVK H2H: 0-1 - GB (Henman, MacLagan, Broad) lost 5-0 to Kroslak & Kucera on clay in Bratislava in April 1995. High time for revenge!
It won't be easy though - SVK's top singles players are Karol Beck WR 75 (though he hasn't played DC for them since failing a drugs test in their semi in 2005), Martin Klizan 89, Lukas Lacko 152, Ivo Klec 236 & Pavol Cervenak 266. Their top doubles players are Michal Mertinak DWR 31, Filip Polasek 37 & Igor Zelenay 61. Could be the odd close rubber in prospect!
If Muzz plays we would be slight favourites, but it would still be an achievement for Wardy to win a singles rubber or for our doubles pair to win. If Muzz doesn't play, it would require a heroic effort to win the tie, but I wouldn't say any of their players are completely unbeatable, e.g. Wardy is 0-1 v Beck (Manchester Challenger 2008, 3 sets) and 1 (grass)-1(clay) v Klec.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
if Beck is in the team they need Boggo as a consultant, he's played Beck 7 (8 if inc a W/O) times in his career!!!
beck is 5-2 in the H2H, but that ;ast 3 have all been pretty close 3 setters. i'm sure in one of them didn;t Beck get pretty fluky in a 3rd set TB or something.
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
Just confirmed in an email from the ITF that if we got through to play Belgium in R2, that tie would be at home too.
Given the teams we could have faced, the chances of getting a home tie in R1 *and* a potential home tie in R2 were less than 1 in 20! So, just a little jammy.
However, if we lost to Slovakia and they then lost to Belgium, we would play Israel or Portugal away in a relegation tie in September ... but if we lost to Slovakia and then Belgium lost to them too, Belgium wouldn't have won a match either (you have to win your first match, even if it is in R2, to avoid the relegation bracket), so we would play Belgium AWAY on 14-16 September, with the LOSER of that tie playing Israel or Portugal away on 19-21 October and the loser of that tie getting relegated.
-- Edited by steven on Wednesday 21st of September 2011 03:02:57 PM
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
Just confirmed in an email from the ITF that if we got through to play Belgium in R2, that tie would be at home too.
Given the teams we could have faced, the chances of getting a home tie in R1 *and* a potential home tie in R2 were less than 1 in 20! So, just a little jammy.
However, if we lost to Slovakia and they then lost to Belgium, we would play Israel or Portugal away in a relegation tie in September ... but if we lost to Slovakia and then Belgium lost to them too, Belgium wouldn't have won a match either (you have to win your first match, even if it is in R2, to avoid the relegation bracket), so we would play Belgium AWAY on 14-16 September, with the LOSER of that tie playing Israel or Portugal away on 19-21 October and the loser of that tie getting relegated.
honestly, the above is bonkers. Wouldn't it be so much easier to run some kind of mini league with the winner going up and the bottom place going down. that way you can have definite ties at definite times, plus you get plenty of DC tennis in.
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
honestly, the above is bonkers. Wouldn't it be so much easier to run some kind of mini league with the winner going up and the bottom place going down. that way you can have definite ties at definite times, plus you get plenty of DC tennis in.
I agree, I was thinking that only today (probably just after I caught onto the SVK beating both GBR and BEL possibility!), round robin groups of 3 or 4 with promotion/relegation ties at the end, or even automatic promotion/relegation. It would mean an extra tie for most teams compared to now though, so probably wouldn't be too popular among the players. Plus it all gets a bit unfair if one team gets its best two players out against one opponent but not against another - I know that can happen in football too, but there are 11 players in a football team so it's not quite so critical.
Group 1 is always more confusing than Group 2, simply because the number of teams in the former varies depending on what has happened in the World Group the previous year whereas there are always 16 teams in Group 2. They could of course make it simpler by saying that if you get through to R2, you automatically avoid relegation playoffs even if you got a bye in R1.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
but having your best players out is always going to be a risk isn't it. i agree you have a potential problem of players and choosing ties, but that's the same as we have now anyway, at least with this method you are able to know in advance where you will be playing and when. Perhaps at the start of the year you have to name a 10man team, with a provision that only players under 19 can be then drafted in (bit like they now do in the premier league).
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
honestly, the above is bonkers. Wouldn't it be so much easier to run some kind of mini league with the winner going up and the bottom place going down. that way you can have definite ties at definite times, plus you get plenty of DC tennis in.
You want to suggest that one to Andy? He'll be out on the picket lines faster than Isner serve.