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Post Info TOPIC: LTA Targets


Tennis legend

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LTA Targets


A few have mentioned that thsi is the time for the LTA Targets to be assessed. Summarised below.

Players in the top 500
30 target
25 actual

Top 5 men average ranking
160 target
203 actual

Top 5 women average ranking
113 target
152 actual

Players in the top 100 singles
3 target
2 actual

Players in the top 100 doubles
5 target
5 actual

so the they only hit one in the end. Were the targets unrealistic?
The average rankings, esp on the mens side is not a good indicator really with Andy in the mix either.

The question is what will now happen that they have missed them? Will anything actually happen, the LTA miss targets on a fairly regual basis after all. Where will the blame (if there should be any) lay? on the 'lazy' players? 


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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.


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Tennis legend

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I'm slightly confused.  

If the target date was yesterday, 27th September, then they have actually rather unfortunately missed all 5 targets since Jamie Murray slipped out of the top 100 in this week's rankings leaving just 4 doubles top 100ers in total.

This seems to tie in with the Telegraph's reading of the situation :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/8028788/Tennis-world-rankings-highlights-Lawn-Tennis-Associations-bankruptcy-of-talent.html

Assuming the relevant date is 27 September then I agree with their very slightly different actual figures of  25, 204, 151, 2 and 4 respectively.

From the Telegraph article I understand the targets were set 2 years ago.

Well, I'd say the 3 top 100 singles players and 5 top 100 doubles players were certainly reasonable, as was probably the 30 within the top 500.

The targets for the average rankings of the top 5 players for both men and women I'd say were quite challenging but certainly not totally unreasonable.  I assume the men's target was made taking account of assuming Andy would be very near the top, and if this is the case  ( as was surely logical ) then no reason why a fair target can't be given. What they have effectively targetted is to have the next 4 men averaging just under WR 200.  I'd say setting that 2 years ago for such as Boggo, Ward, Baker and Evo was challenging but not unreasonable.  Similar with the women's average for the top 5 of 113 for such as Bally, Anne, Cav, Naomi and Mel quite apart from considering the talent that might ( and has ) come through from the juniors.  I'd say both the men's and women's average targets were probably close to best case scenarios ( kind of like our generallly over-optimistic year end ranking predictions ! )  and maybe overall were unlikely to be achieved. 

On the face of it though the targets probably should be stretch targets, targets that would challenge, would seek to improve on recent history ( since things are getting better aren't they ?  hmm.gif )   I don't actually think the targets for the number of top 100 singles and doubles players were very challenging.
But like the Count though, I really do wonder what happens now   confused.gif   What meanings / lessons can be taken from all the targets being missed ?   What changes will be made ?  Will anyone be held to account in any way ?  There surely must be some consequences of the targets being missed or what was the point of them in the first place other than as some wooly wishlist ?

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 28th of September 2010 02:07:28 PM

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Tennis legend

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I just got my figures of a BBC message board post that were from last week so that's probably why they were out of date slightly.

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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.


www.alexbogdanovic.com



County player

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indiana wrote:

... what was the point of them in the first place other than as some wooly wishlist ?

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 28th of September 2010 02:07:28 PM



Well, exactly. I think I've already quoted this once before, but it's pretty cool, so here it is again:

"One large publishing company went to great pains to develop one-year, three-year and five-year plans, There were high-paid consultants, lengthy marketing meetings, late-night financial analysis sessions, long off-site afternoon pow-wows. In the end hunches were turned into formulas and wild guesses were codified as likely outcomes.

When certain products didn't sell as well as expected the appropriate employees were blamed as if the initial expectations were meaningful."

(Leonard Mlodinow; The Drunkard's Walk)



-- Edited by Ratty on Tuesday 28th of September 2010 05:43:36 PM

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"Where Ratty leads - the rest soon follow" (Professor Henry Brubaker - The Institute of Studies)



Futures qualifying

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Looking at Steven's top 25 table for 2 years ago:

Women:

Anne 84 (+48 in year)
Bally 127 (+60)
Mel 129 (+85)
Katie 139 (-12)
Georgie 240 (+140)

And coming though:

Amanda Ellliot 316 (+324)
Naomi Broady 500 (+223)

And it was the week Laura played her 2nd senior tournament and reached the semi-final of a 75K. I'd say the targets were fair given how promising that situation looked and they would have made the 3 players in the top 100 without Anne's injury. They would still have missed the average ranking target due to Katie & Mel's decline.


Men:

Andy 4 (+7)
Boggo 163 (+27)
Josh 204 (+170)
Slabba 293 (+115)
Bloomers 298 (+5)

and coming through:

Jonny Marray 550 (+401)
Dan Evans 602 (+656)

160 doesn't look too bad given those figures.



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