Week 39 - WTA Premier ($2m) - Tokyo, Japan - Hard

Julia Carrot · All-time great

RE: Week 39 - WTA Premier ($2m) - Tokyo, Japan - Hard

Julia Carrot · All-time great

Laura loses 4-6 3-6

Sad for her really, she'll be gutted

philwrig · Hall of fame

Shame, but looks to have run out of gas during the second set. Laura's senior career so far does indicate that at this stage in her career, she does fatigue mentally and physicially as the week progresses, her first two matches of the week are often her best. Luckily as she gets stronger and more mature she will be able to turn this around. A win here would have given her a big jump in the rankings, but 30 points is still very handy, and maybe it is a good thing that she will have to really earn her way onto the big stage. Players that get there too quickly before they're quite ready often suffer a setback take Oudin for example.

Julia Carrot · All-time great

FortyDeuceTwits on Twitter, a big 'Robbie as she calls her, fan,

'Greta Arn denies us the @laurarobson5 vs. @CaroWozniacki 2R match in Tokyo. Shame on you, Greta. Shame. On. You.'

-- Edited by Julia Carrot on Sunday 26th of September 2010 09:43:57 AM

RBBOT · Futures qualifying

I've seen it said here many times that comparing Laura's progress to Wozniacki's rise through the ranks is a good way to assess whether she's on track for the top 10 or not. Well, Wozniacki has lost in R1 at this tournament every year she's played it, so, on that front at least, looks like things are going well ;)

Ratty · County player

Oh I'm feeling in need of a bit of an argument ...

"Laura's senior career so far does indicate that at this stage in her career, she does fatigue mentally and physicially as the week progresses, her first two matches of the week are often her best. "

This is cherry-picking an example to "prove" a hypothesis; what a statto would call Confirmation Bias. A technique beloved of supporters of Complementary Medicine to defend their absurd beliefs in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary ...

"Luckily as she gets stronger and more mature she will be able to turn this around."

This is nothing more than wish-fulfilment.

"Players that get there too quickly before they're quite ready often suffer a setback take Oudin for example."

More Confirmation Bias, what about all of the people who did not suffer a setback?

indiana · Tennis legend

Pity for Laura not to get the big 70 points for a R1 win.

But it has been a very good tournament for her. Two very good battling wins against top 100 players, and a 6 - 4 6 - 3 loss to a good experienced pro in Arn, WR 106, who has just beaten an in-form Bally.

It says everything about Laura still heading in the right direction that there is perhaps quite a bit of disappointment in the match, maybe surprise from some that she didn't get another victory.

She is performing at age 16 at already a very high level and from what I can see is ahead of most folk's start of year predictions. Looking good to me.

Re ability to keep producing successive performances, I think there is indeed probably some element of fatigue at times, both mental and physical, and I think that is only to be expected at this stage of her career and is no worry to me. She will develop in that area as she continues to develop in others.

Well done to Laura on a very good tournament. Looking good, girl !

indiana · Tennis legend

By the way, impressed by the apparent attempt to get this forum a mention in Private Eye's "Pseuds Corner" smile

Maza1987 · Challenger level

Pretty disappointing. But cleary Arn is playing better than I thought. So well done to her.

Ratty · County player

My sincere apologies for omitting the usual quota of platitudes and cliches in my last post.

What I should have said was:

Laura will really gain a lot of confidence from the 2 wins, and will now kick on with a steady climb up the rankings. Unless of course this is her big breakthrough. But in any case the loss against Arn was invaluable experience of playing at the top level.

I think that the 2 wins will take her into the top 198 and possibly even into the British top 9.

And with 8 Brits in the top 198, this is the best ranking performance since 15th July 2007!!!

Ratty · County player

Oh deary me, how could I have forgotten Laura's big weapons, in particular her swinging lefty serve.

But, let's not forget that she's only 16. And of course, British girls are always late developers.

Cripes, I could turn this tripe out by the yard. As many of you do ....

smile

(Obligatory smiley, one can be astoundingly rude, so long as one is being IRONIC ....)

Maza1987 · Challenger level

Do I sense some pessimism, ratty? lol

indiana · Tennis legend

Ratty, I was wondering what are your views on how Laura has been progressing, such as where her game stands at the moment and where you currently think she is most likely heading in the short and long term ? Also, maybe things you would like to see her and her team change or concentrate on so she can make the most of her talent ?

I actually, believe it or not, honestly think some of what you take issue with are perfectly reasonable points, and I like to think I am an independent thinker that comes to my own conclusions and am indeed not loathe to say when I disagree with some often majority views.

So perhaps if you give us your views on Laura, I might pick up on some things I haven't fully considered before and / or it might spark some interesting general debate.

Apologies if you have stated some of these before, but I think that this might be a good time for you to state or restate some of these opinions.

-- Edited by indiana on Monday 27th of September 2010 10:48:53 AM

Ratty · County player

Oh all right then ...

I find Laura one of those puzzling players where you think: "How does this guy/girl ever win a match?" A bit like Lleyton Hewitt. All of his shot-making was adequate at best, and yet he won 2 majors and spent a couple of years as No 1 ATP.

So you watch Laura Robson, and you see a player whose movement is frankly pretty poor, who doesn't chase down balls, often gets wrong-footed, makes a load of errors, and whose serve can collapse altogether. But she has beaten some very good players, and at c200 in the rankings at age 16 is doing pretty well.

In the current men's game, poor movement basically means that you are never going to make it to the big time. There are a few such women who have done well in the past - Davenport, Sharapova, Bartoli and Hantuchova, for example. But maybe you have to think that such incredible athletes as Wozniacki are the stars of the future.

I can't make any predictions. All sports are littered with the wreckage of junior stars who stopped making progress, for whatever reason. Tokyo was a typical sporting example of periodic outperformance (beating Sevastova & Halep), followed by regression to the mean (losing to Arn). Climbing the rankings involves turning yesterday's outperfomance into today's norm. Now there's a platitude for you.

(As an aside, I have a sneaking suspicion that Katie O'Brien's, Mel South's, and possibly even Anne Keothavong's forays into the top 100 were one-off outperfomance streaks, followed by regression to the mean.)

Anyway, I'd like Laura to do well. She seems like a nice girl, and is fun to watch.

indiana · Tennis legend

Thanks for that, Ratty.

I think you make some good points on Laura's movement. That is an area that however much one works on it, and no doubt folk will try, I can't see you can turn such a player into a particulrly good mover and it will always I fear handicap her to some extent. As you say some poorish movers have made good progress in the game, but they would have achieved more with better movement.

Re already mentioned fitness, that I am much more confident can be worked successfully on, and she will in time chase more of these balls down though frankly I sometimes think that's a bit of an attitude thing with Laura as well, how much she can be bothered to chase on a given day. I feel the more she's up for a match, the more she will run and fight.

The serve has collapsed under pressure, but not so much lately and I feel that area is improving and may overall become an asset in the future.

I am not very sure at all about your paragraph about periodic outperformance and regression to the mean. I don't feel that Laura's results this year tie in with these thoughts. Let's look at her record this year as against the rankings of her opponents after this last Tokyo event :

Ranked < 100 Won 4 Lost 3

101 - 150 Won 5 Lost 5

151 - 200 Won 3 Lost 0

201 - 250 Won 2 Lost 0

251 - 300 None played

> 300 Won 4 Lost 4

Total Won 18 Lost 12

She has clearly produced in the past against top 100 players, before Tokyo winning 2 ( Voegele and Dokic ) and losing 3 and now Sevastova and Halep in Tokyo, and against 101 - 150 players was actually 5 - 4 up vs 101 - 150 players before her loss to Arn who was ranked 106.

Looking at these statistics, I can't see how losing to Arn was a "regression to the mean", certainly in terms of her performances as against top players.The 2 qualifying wins were very good, but to me are not really indicative of "periodic outperformances" as her record against high ranked players is pretty good and getting better. It is actually becoming increasingly less clear what an outperformance is for Laura, but I would suggest that any general win against a player around the WR100 mark no longer fits that description.

Perhaps after two fine wins there may have been some thought that she may have been to some extent mentally and physically fatigued, making the third victory a bit less likely. You yourself seemed to have problems with this when it was raised before. I myself would not discount some element of this, but the major factor I would think is Arn just played better on the day.

.

Anyway, sorry to maybe waffle on so much on this point, but my gist is that Laura this year has a pretty consistent record against top players rather than some occasional real highs reverting back to some lower norm.

She has actually only played 8 matches against players outside the top 300 ( indeed 250 ) and has a 50 / 50, won 4, lost 4 record, perhaps still indicative of the raising her game for the bigger occasion factor, and sometimes not at other times. The downside of that I think has been seen even more starkly in junior matches.

Re Katie, Mel, and "possibly even Anne" the top 100 rankings are of course achieved by a full year's results so were based on quite a period of better results. I do have some fears for them getting back there, but they have each shown ability to play at a level higher than they have been recently, so there must be a chance that they may get back there. They are not searching for the unattainable because they have done it before, it is a question of working to find it again.