Davis Cup - Euro Africa Zone Group II R1 v Tunisia (home) - 4-6 March 2011

steven · Tennis legend

Davis Cup - Euro Africa Zone Group II R1 v Tunisia (home) - 4-6 March 2011

LadyTigress · County player

Davis Cup - Euro Africa Zone Group II R1 - 5-7 March 2011

indiana · Tennis legend

I'd been reading that and it was very impressive. I was thinking LT was the new Steven smile

steven · Tennis legend

LadyTigress wrote:
Oi! *pokes* I did the research and calculations on who we would be facing next, and I didn't need to start a new thread to do it! I propose that we transpose my research post into this thread, or better yet it's own thread! :p

EDIT: Lol and you forgot meeting up with me again yesterday.

Nice that we pulled off the full 5-0 for this tie. Not since 2001 have we managed that.

Re. the EDIT - oops, I tend to think of people as being on the board where I first met them, but very much a *doh* in this case. Edited in!

I hadn't read through the full DC thread so apologies if you had already posted any of what's in the first post here. Because it was mainly AM.commers who were asking me yesterday (BT.netters no doubt knowing much of it or realising that until this weekend's results were known, there were too many possibilities to make it worth checking!), I checked whether anyone had done it there (they hadn't) then just pasted it in here after only checking whether there was a 2011 thread.

If you did all the home/away and last results stuff before all this weekend's ties finished, that must have been a bit of a nightmare! Anyway, when I read through the DC thread later, if there's any extra stuff, I'll move it over somehow.

Edit: now I've read the Turkey thread, your research covers who we might play and which groups they've come from (which was my first post on AM.com, and I did guess someone here probably had done that) whereas this is a paste of my second post on AM.com, i.e. choice of ground and last result against each of the possible opponent. So thankfully no real duplication. smile

Thanks for keeping everybody informed of the possibilities during this weekend's tie though - that would indeed have been very useful info for all those expecting me to know the full list of 19 teams (more like 25 when they were asking me on Saturday) off the top of my head! wink

-- Edited by steven on Sunday 11th of July 2010 05:36:03 PM

LadyTigress · County player

Lol no, it's okay, it's just it read a teensy bit similar to my list of Group II teams for next year. *roll eyes* well, obviously it would as the facts don't change. I thought the home/away/lot info was great though, very informative

.

Genuinely though, I've developed a real (albeit surprising even to me, I had no love for statistics prior) interest in the stats. I credit it all to the inspiration that pulled me into following the Challengers and Futures Tour. Goodness knows sometimes getting information out of that tier is harder than squeezing blood from a stone. I've learned to savour the numbers and statistics as the only longed-for scrap of information that one can get sometimes.

steven · Tennis legend

You'll notice that Norway aren't included on the list of teams we could play next year - that's because they lost 5-0 to Monaco in another relegation tie at the weekend.

All four of their squad had a go at singles, with Boretti retiring 0-6 3-6 1-2 down against Balleret (presumably retiring through unbearable shame since he played the doubles the next day), Tveit losing to Oger (more a MonéGEM than a Monégasque, admittedly) in s/s, Ask taking a set off Balleret but losing the other two 2 & 0 and Forberg Skogeng going down 1 & 2 against Oger.

That makes them 0-10 in rubbers this year, perhaps not surprising that Vandenburg is found here more often than on www.NorwegianTennis.fail wink

They'll probably be glad to get back to playing the likes of Andorra and Namibia, teams they beat in 2009.

The Knight · Challenger qualifying

sounds like V-Burg could probably get in that team at the moment!

Vandenburg · Futures level

RE: Davis Cup - Euro Africa Zone Group II R1 - 4-6 March 2011

steven · Tennis legend

Interesting idea that you need to have a British passport to slag off British tennis. Does Pat Cash know?

Vandenburg · Futures level

steven wrote:

Interesting idea that you need to have a British passport to slag off British tennis. Does Pat Cash know?

Leave the cash alone,he is probably the greatest player to ever exist, i mean if federer and nadal had existied in the same era, they would never have won wimbledon, imagine facing that bandana and earing at the net.

steven · Tennis legend

In the new DC rankings http://www.daviscup.com/ranking/current.asp we have gained 1 place to 35th, just behind Peru ashamed

but just ahead of Slovakia, who have lost 7 of their last 10 matches (beating just FYR Macedonia twice and Georgia) since reaching the Davis Cup Final in 2005.

The rankings of other countries that will/could be in G2 next year are:

33 POL (only in G2 if they lose to LAT)
35 GBR now
36 SVK (only in G2 if if they lose to BLR)
39 LAT (only in G2 if if they lose to POL)
45 POR (only in G2 if if they lose to BIH)
46 BLR (only in G2 if if they lose to SVK)
GBR based on what our points total will drop to after September (*)
49 SLO (only in G2 if if they lose to LTU)
50 LTU (only in G2 if if they lose to SLO)
51 MON
52 CYP
53 BIH (only in G2 if if they lose to POR)
+ 56 IRL 58 BUL 59 HUN 61 DEN 62 EST 63 MAR 71 GRE 78 TUN 81 LUX

Turkey have dropped from 81st to 86th btw.

(*) We now have 845 points, made up as follows (N.B. these are approximate because I don't know exactly where those countries were ranked at the time we played them and hence exactly what the ranking bonus points were)

- 107.5 from our Sep 2006 win v UKR away (431 reduced by 75% because it was 3-4 years ago - will drop off completely when the September rankings come out)
- 160 from our Apr 2007 win v NED at home (640 reduced by 75% and will still be 160 after Sep)
- 537.5 from our Sep 2007 win v CRO at home (1075 reduced by 50%, which will reduce further to 268.75 after Sep)
- 40 from our Jul 2010 win v TUR at home (will still be 40 after Sep)

So, we will have approx. 468.75 points when the Sep 2010 rankings come out, which would put us behind Belarus. However, many of the other countries in the above list will also see their total points reduce if they have had September wins in any of the last four years and all of the above countries are either not due to play in September or will only end up in G2 next year if they lose promotion or relegation ties, so can't gain any more points either way.

From the above list, only three teams can end up having more points than us and still be in G2 for 2011 so we are certain to be one of the four seeds. smile

However, by the time the following September comes around, we will only have the Turkey points left on our DC ranking (plus any points we gain in 2011) - if we lost in R1 again but survived another relegation playoff, we could have dropped to around 70th by the end of next year. That's not going to happen though, is it ...

LadyTigress · County player

*tumbleweed blows by*

Depends on our draw next year. If we're going to avoid the seeds in our first tie, based on your assumption of seeds, then our March opponents would be from the following list I'm guessing:

Bulgaria
Cyprus
Denmark
Estonia
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Luxembourg
Monaco
Morocco
Tunisia

Then it depends if those teams play their number 1 player or not. For example, Baghdatis is obviously the highest ranking Cypriot, and if he were on the team then he could give us some problems assuming we're still not playing Andy, but then again Baghdatis doesn't always show up for his team either. Other teams seem like better victory prospects for us whether or not they play their number 1. I'm hoping we have a shot at winning our first tie. I have an ironic feeling though that if we do make it to a promotion play off we'll have the luck to be drawn against Poland again.

steven · Tennis legend

It is starting to become clear this afternoon who the final four teams in Group 2 next year will be:

Belarus have been relegated from G1 (1-3 down to SVK)

Poland v Latvia is still undecided (looks like the tie has been rain delayed at 1-1)

Slovenia, who I predicted after the draw would be the most likely winners of our section, are 1-2 down away to the team that actually beat us, Lithuania. Berankis beat Kavcic and Grigelis lost to Zemlja but Berankis/Grigelis recovered from 2 sets down to upset Gregorc/Zemlja in the doubles - that's what upsetting GB does for your confidence, obviously!

I would expect Berankis to beat Zemlja in the reverse singles, which would mean Slovenia would stay in G2.

Portugal lead Bosnia 2-1 at home despite the Bosnians having the advantage of Delic having switched from the USA to play for the country he was born in. Having said that, Delic (former world no. 60) had been out with a knee injury for over a year and is now unranked! He did manage to recover from 2 sets down against Gil WR 83 to take it to a 5th but the Portuguese player won the final set 9-7 and although Setkic WR 330 upset 'death by' Machado WR 124, the home team won the doubles yesterday.

I would expect Gil to beat Setkic today, in which case Bosnia (possibly with a fully fit Delic by next year) will remain in G2.

steven · Tennis legend

Portugal have won (so Bosnia will be in G2 with us next year) but Berankis WR 106 has been beaten in straight sets by Zemlja WR 119 so that tie will go down to the 5th rubber between Grigelis WR 404 and Kavi WR 120, with Slovenia now the favs to win the tie.

Poland v Latvia are now 2-2 after Gulbis beat Przysiezny, so that tie will come down to Lejnieks WR 519 v Janowicz WR 198, with POL the facs to leave Latvia in G2.

-- Edited by steven on Sunday 19th of September 2010 07:35:28 PM

steven · Tennis legend

Slovenia ended up beating Lithuania and Poland beat Latvia. Three of the teams that won today were teams we were due to play an away tie against, thus increasing the chances that we will get one or more home ties next year. Only Monaco would definitely be away (which would be nice in the summer!), HUN, LTU, LUX & MAR would definitely be at home and if we play any of the other 10 teams, home advantage will be decided by lot.

With less teams to check results previous September results for, I can now go a bit further with the rankings (subject to confirmation when the new rankings come out on Tuesday) and say that the four seeded teams will be Latvia, GB, Belarus & Lithuania in that order (Belarus won a G1 relegation playoff against Georgia in 2008 and the 80 points coming off from that mean we'll stay above them), which should mean that the one team we can't possibly play next year will be Latvia, i.e. Gulbis and co.

So, possible March opponents are Hungary, Luxembourg or Morocco at home; Monaco away; Bulgaria, Bosnia & Hercegovina, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Ireland or Tunisia home or away to be decided by lot. (i.e. the same as LT's list above plus BIH)