Week 18 - ITF ($50K) - Fukuoka, Japan - Carpet

SMC1809 · All-time great

Week 18 - ITF ($50K) - Fukuoka, Japan - Carpet

jb288 · Satellite level

Jade has 30 points coming off this week. Without them, she's likely to slip back down under 500. That'd be such a shame - she's sadly failed to capitalise on last year's poor start to the year, and may now lose out on the WCs which helped her last time around aswell. Remains to be seen whether the MCTA can help her or not.

steven · Tennis legend

It's not quite as bad as that - she'll fall outside the top 400 when the 30 points come off next Monday, but not outside the top 500.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, don't know why it has all gone so wrong this year after Jade made a really significant move up the rankings last year. I felt sure she would be moving into the top 300 and with how little she had to defend in the early part of the year would have thought a fair chance she would have done so by now.

With the little to defend she hasn't really dropped away, but as you say has unfortunately failed to capitalise at all and now her lack of wins really threatens to come home to roost. Jade last week had the most ranking points she has had to defend this year ( 8 ) and dropped from WR 336 to WR 351. Now as you say has 30 to defend this week and if not defended at all she will drop to 83 points which is currently WR 415.

By August, unless Jade starts winning matches, yes she will be out of the top 500.

Maybe some wins at 10K level could start to restore confidence, though she has even lost in R1 in her two tournaments at that level this year.

I really do hope Jade can start to turn things round as soon as possible. She is capable of much much better than this.

-- Edited by indiana on Monday 3rd of May 2010 11:01:03 AM

philwrig · Hall of fame

It's a bit of a mystery why 2010 has been so bad for Jade.

jb288 · Satellite level

Sorry, bad maths there!

JT · Junior player

I think it's quite obvious why this year, and the back end of last year, have been so bad for Jade. She was coached by her step dad for so long and got used to working closely with one person so when she moved to the LTA it was great for her to be working in a small group (of mostly just her and Tara) with Luke Milligan. That seemed to be the right thing for Jade as results were coming and she was on her way up. Tara then stopped working with the LTA or was kicked out so the LTA couldn't justify Luke working 1 on 1 with Jade and at the same time he started working with Anne Keothavong. Anne then got injured so he was back with Jade for the end of the year but she knew when Anne was fit again she would lose her coach. She was then put in a group of players and was obviously not getting the care she needed so she left.

I'm sure this has all had a huge impact on her, I know it's a lonely place for any girl left on her own trying to make it, especially a 20 year old.

Hopefully she'll turn it around though!

The Knight · Challenger qualifying

i thought this would be the obvious reason but hasn't she been injured quite a bit? maybe im imagining it...

philwrig · Hall of fame

JT wrote:

I think it's quite obvious why this year, and the back end of last year, have been so bad for Jade. She was coached by her step dad for so long and got used to working closely with one person so when she moved to the LTA it was great for her to be working in a small group (of mostly just her and Tara) with Luke Milligan. That seemed to be the right thing for Jade as results were coming and she was on her way up. Tara then stopped working with the LTA or was kicked out so the LTA couldn't justify Luke working 1 on 1 with Jade and at the same time he started working with Anne Keothavong. Anne then got injured so he was back with Jade for the end of the year but she knew when Anne was fit again she would lose her coach. She was then put in a group of players and was obviously not getting the care she needed so she left.

I'm sure this has all had a huge impact on her, I know it's a lonely place for any girl left on her own trying to make it, especially a 20 year old.

Hopefully she'll turn it around though!

Thanks for that information regarding her coaching situation. That partly explains her poor form this year but there must be more to it you would think. Shouldn't the LTA do there utmost to resolve this situation if this is the main reason for her poor form this year.

Ratty · County player

Good lord, it never ceases to amaze me, the relentless human determination to find reasons and patterns in random noise!

And I'm a contrary S.O.B, so whenever I hear anyone wondering why someone has gone downhill, I always like to check whether he/she ever climbed that hill in the first place.

Now I've got nothing against Jade Curtis, and wish her all success in her tennis career. But it really doesn't take very long to look on the WTA website and check the rankings of the players she beat to get her points last year.

I don't like to be harsh, or whatever, but I see 2 "good" results in the whole of 2009 - both in the same tournament. And I see more than a few losses to lower-ranked players.

So by far the most likely explanation for the fall in her ranking is that her initial rise up the ranking was a result of random fluctuations and a couple of favourable draws. And her fall is a regression to the mean.

After all, sh*t happens, people!

philwrig · Hall of fame

Ratty wrote:

Good lord, it never ceases to amaze me, the relentless human determination to find reasons and patterns in random noise!

And I'm a contrary S.O.B, so whenever I hear anyone wondering why someone has gone downhill, I always like to check whether he/she ever climbed that hill in the first place.

Now I've got nothing against Jade Curtis, and wish her all success in her tennis career. But it really doesn't take very long to look on the WTA website and check the rankings of the players she beat to get her points last year.

I don't like to be harsh, or whatever, but I see 2 "good" results in the whole of 2009 - both in the same tournament. And I see more than a few losses to lower-ranked players.

So by far the most likely explanation for the fall in her ranking is that her initial rise up the ranking was a result of random fluctuations and a couple of favourable draws. And her fall is a regression to the mean.

After all, sh*t happens, people!

I would partly agree with that. Jade was never destined for greatness based on last years form but I still thought she would maintain her ranking but at the moment she is doing a Mandy Elliott.

-- Edited by philwrig on Monday 3rd of May 2010 04:30:49 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Nothing wrong at all with being contrary, I am perhaps myself sometimes. Sometimes the seemingly settled view is not always the right one.

However, in this case let's more fully consider Jade's results.

I would agree that on last year's results Jade was probably overranked but she did rise nearly 200 places up the rankings last year and on her results from April to the end of the year I would suggest that they indicated a player around the 400 mark, whereas she is cleary not playing at that level now.

April to December 2009 :

Against players within top 300 : Won 3, Lost 10
300 - 400 : Won 3, Lost 4
400 - 500 : Won 3, Lost 2
Outside top 500 : Won 15, Lost 4

Total : Won 24, Lost 20

The 3 wins against players within the top 300 were WR 128 Hsieh in Korea and WRs 235 Grandin and 163 Fujiwara in Nottingham. The 4 losses against players outside the top 500 were in April, September and two in November so for over 6 months she only lost to one player outside the top 500 ( Barthel then ranked 529 ( now ranked 227 ) on her way to the Shrewsbury final ).

Now, January to April 2010 :

Against players within top 300 : Won 0, Lost 2
300 - 400 : Won 0, Lost 1
400 - 500 : None played
Outside top 500 : Won 0, Lost 4

Total : Won 0, Lost 7

Lost all 4 to players outside the top 500 whereas lost only 4 out of 19 in the previous period. This is clearly NOT the form of a player playing anything like around WR 400 form, which as I suggested the earlier results were. She has yet to win a set this year.

I am not saying Jade was ever going to get very close to the summit, but she was clearly climbing last year and there was reason to hope she could at least consolidate ( given I accept that low 300s in WR was maybe kind ).

Jade is absolutely not playing anything like as well as she was through most of last year, this is no random fluctuation. Given that, discussion about the possible reasons why is entirely valid.

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 4th of May 2010 02:13:04 PM

Josh · Challenger level

indiana wrote:
She has yet to win a set this year.

I knew it was bad but didn't realise it was quite that bad. I saw her play a doubles match with Fitzy at Bath and for most of the match she was the best player on the court. Obviously singles and doubles are completely different, with no expectations or the pressure of potential reprecusions for any bad defeat in the doubles. Hopefully the grass season will be a little kinder or else her ranking will really start to drop.

Would the LTA really be bothered to help out a player like Jade? Girls around her age such as both the Naomi's have left her behind in the rankings and with Heather and Laura breaking through maybe the LTA feel they have other players who are more 'deserving' of the attention. Perhaps Katie is suffering from some of this too.

PockyTastic · Futures level

Doubles R1: (4)Lykina/South (RUS/GBR) d. (wc)Nakano/Shigefuji (JPN) 64 62

SMC1809 · All-time great

QF: DOI (JPN) / TAKAHATA (JPN) Vs LYKINA (RUS) / SOUTH (GBR) (4)