Someone on GBTG has suggested a predictions league for British women and their rankings this time next year; for those of us like myself who cannot post on that site, I thought I'd start one here! This is clearly going to be rather hit and miss, but it should provide some fun in er, 12 months time...
My list:
1. Bally - 66 2. Anne - 70 3. Katie - 85 4. Naomi C - 94 5. Naomi B - 130 6. Mel - 135 7. Georgie - 160 8. Laura - 230 9. Heather - 280 10. Lisa - 285
10 top 300 girls would do very nicely indeed, I reckon! Hopefully Joss n' Jade will be there or thereabouts too.
Hey great minds think alike. I had been thinking in the last couple of days of some sort of top 10 prediction contest, particularly for the women, which I think could be very interesting with how different players are coming through at different paces. I'd purely been thinking of predicting British ranking top 10 in order ( which I'd be very imprsssed with anyone who managed that ! ) , i.e. simply 1 to 10 rather than additionally put a WR to them.
Anyway, jb, keeping with the original post, how is your league scored ? Is it just cumulative lowest amount away from year end WR of your named players or say some additional credit for predicting players in the top 10 and / or their British ranking or what ?
Mine would be :
1. Bally - 75 2. Anne - 90 3. Katie - 95 4. Mel - 130 5. Naomi B - 155 6. Naomi C - 170 7. Georgie - 220 8. Laura - 240 9. Jade C - 260 10. Heather - 285
Indeed, I should've considered the scoring aspect! I would've thought the likelihood of ranking everyone correctly would be very low, but I guess you could get a point for every person in the correct placing (as one competition), and then a lowest total deviation as the WR competition as you suggest.
As for the debate at hand (and I was thinking of this as a catalyst for debate), I wonder why you're so pessimistic about Naomi C's prospects? It seems to me she only has to start turning 25k 2Rs and QFs into semis (and further) and she's sorted - and I don't think that's out of her reach. I'd also be suprised (but delighted) if Jade C made it as high as you suggest - I really hope she can push on, but I'd say Lisa is a better prospect. But let's wait and see who's right! I truly hope Mel has a better year than either of us predict...
Thanks for that. Anyway, shhh I don't really want to reveal my reasonings, but between you and me...
Re Naomi C, I have actually got her going to a career high of 170. For whatever reason after a very decent first half of the season after her break, she most certainly did not kick on but seemed to fall back in the second half of the season. It was L16's second half rather than even QFs in these later months. Yes, if she started getting to semis or more in 25K's she'd very much be on her way. It's the"only has to" bit that I've a problem with since I'm not convinced she's going to do that sufficiently to rise much higher than my prediction. I think the talent is there, but something maybe coachingwise or other things, is not. It could all click, in which case I will have underestimated her ranking and be delighted for her.
Re Jade C, after being really hailed in her very early days she did maybe tread water a bit for a year or two. But this year she has risen 186 places to 334, and I see someone who will fight to try make the most of herself. In these circumstances I feel a further rise to 260 is quite within her capabilities. As actually one of the biggest ranking place risers this year, and until Naomi B's recent crazy spell GB's top ranked teenager, I did suggest in another thread that I thought she was maybe a little overlooked among other up and coming players.
Lisa is a very good prospect by she has only really made the break through senior wise this year and apparently still has quite a few temperament issues in matches. I see her still taking another couple of years to really begin to make the most of her talents and yes personally I fully anticipate Jade C heading her in the ranking at the end of 2010.
Yes, let's indeed see what the year brings and how silly this game of tennis will maybe make some of our predictions ultimately look. But that will be the players' fault, not mine
I reckon this is going to be Naomi's 'kicking on' year; she has weapons to compete against the best, but clearly has consistency issues to address. I agree Jade is an incredible battler, and may well 'do a Katie' and prove her critics wrong - but then I think Katie had/has weapons Jade lacks at present - but then Jade has 3 years on her! On the other hand, I am rather in awe of Lisa's backhand (well, jealous really) after seeing her at Shrewsbury, so that is probably clouding my judgment of her capacities! I should say that of all the GB girls, it's Jade and Katie I most look out for and want to do well, so nothing would please me more than her having a great breakthrough season.
Cav broke the top 200 at 18 years old, 2 years ago, and looked like she would really kick on and head towards the top 100 so its sad that 2 years later shes ranked lower than she was and I think shes gonna correct things this year.
Heather won her 4th event whereas Cav won her third, however Heather debuted higher in the rankings and I dont think its outside Heathers potential to emulate Cavaday and break the top 200 by the end of a full season next year.
If they all stay healthy:
Bally 40 Anne 45 Katie 60 Cavaday 85 Broady 100 Mel 105 Georgie 160 Heather 190 Laura 220
Im clearly an optimist, however I do feel that next season will see huge climbs for the girls. If Tara, Joss and Lisa all play full, healthy seasons too I see them around 300-350.
Cav certainly seems to be the main player dividing opinion for the coming year.
We have two thinking she's really going to kick on next season and two thinking only limited further progress in the rankings.
This is one time I'd really like to be on the wrong side.
Cav continues to divide opinion, now 3 - 3 on the above split. Well, we've certainly left a big window for her, noone has her final ranking between 94 and 170
Last 2 sets of overall predictions certainly have a very different slant from each other on how they think things will pan out overall for the girls this season.