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Post Info TOPIC: Good enough for top 100?


Pro player

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Good enough for top 100?


I have copied an extract from a post I put on the Sheffield thread, but seeing as the event is over it may well not get seen. However a discussion was taking place about whether our players were 'good enough for the top 100/ 200 but failing to live up to their potential (most people's opinion) or actually pretty hard working but not quite good enough (my opinion on the whole) As part of that I had a look at our players records against players in the top 100 and top 200 last year, which is:

Boogo v Top 100 2-7
v 101-200 3 -7

Baker v top 100 1-2
v 101- 200 4 -11

Bloomfield v top 100 0-4
v 101-200 5-5

Goodall v top 100 0-3
v 101-200 0-2

On that evidence it is hard to argue that any of our players have demonstrated an ability to consistently beat players in the top 200, with Bloomers having the best record with a 5-5 record against players between 101- 200, this is based on their ranking as shown on the ATP site, not sure if its ranking or race position. For the first tournaments of the year, I did it based on their WR at the time according to Ranking history.

Not saying this to slag anyone off, just to prove once again that its easier to talk about being in the top 100/ top 200 (delete as appropriate) and much harder to prove that you're good enough to play there.

Anyone else agree or have a different perspective?


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All-time great

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Blade, these are good stats, but I'm not sure if they help in that "good enough" argument:

If the boys had been regularly beating players at these levels (i.e. at QF Challenger lever for the 200s and ATP level for the 100s), then they wouldn't just be "good enough" for the top 100/200 but actually be there.

- Which I think you'll say is precisely your point wink.gif

However, if people are saying that they detect a talent or an attitude, that with some work, some coaching, a run of luck with injuries and opponents, and subsequently the experience of playing at the higher levels week in- week out, could translate into a top 200 or 100 ranking then they could still very much be right. I'm sure that globally there are 300 players who are "good enough" to get into the top 100. probably 300 who've been there at some time or other. The question, of course is who can translate that into actually making the grade.

- out of interest, did Boggo's results include ATP qualies?

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Tennis legend

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i dont think blades stats inc qualies, boggo bt 4 top 100 players last year if u inc them, delic twice (in qualies), ht lee & rainer schuttler. also his reults vs 100-200 go up to about 7 wins as well (i guess his loses would rise too). for boggo in particular is was a weird year with so much time missed.

i wonder if our players arn't helped by the fact that so rarely do they get the opportunity to play vs top players, esp the ones who stay and train in the uk.

with only 3 home atp events, and all on a unqiue surafce is it no wonder they find the step up harsh, and now they have even ditched the challenegrs it will be even harder to get that experience.

the ones who train in amercia/spain will at least get to train with a top guy on occasion i think.

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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.


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Tennis legend

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also for looking at tennis results the best site i have found is tennisinsight.com, lists every match inc qualies, also provides a match win/lose break down for every surface/level/ and geographical area. also has stats for tb's won lost too.

its much easier to get a feel what players have been up to there than the atp site.

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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.


www.alexbogdanovic.com



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It may be semantics but I think there are two different things here. The original quote that sparked this (very interesting) debate was that someone "deserved" to be in the top 100. This thread title is about "good enough".

I think that people outside the top 100 can definitely be good enough for the top 100. There are many factors in getting to the top 100. there are the Andy's of the sport who charge up the rankings in a matter of months. But they are few and far between. Most solid top 100 players (less so the top 20) take time, they have to go through the challengers. and that takes time. More than that, they have to remain healthy, get some good draws (eg not draw Federer in rd1 of the masters series you just got a wildcard for) and win the matches they should be winning. In my opinion Boggo is a player who is good enough for the top 100 tenniswise, it's just not happened yet.

And that leads neatly into whether a player can deserve to be in the top 100. That's a very different and much more complicated question. To take Boggo again, I'm not sure. I have no doubt he's good enough but I do subscribe to the 'if he deserves it he'd be there' view in this case. And the case of others who have the skill but haven't got it together mentally, physically etc etc. That's not to say I think Boggo hasn't been working really hard and hasn't been really unfortunate with injuries and so forth, in particular the one coming in the summer this year when he got tantilisingly close.

On the other hand there are players out there who don't necessarily have the talent but I think deserve to be in the top 100 because that's the goal of a tennis player and the work and effort they put in deserves more reward than struggling to pay the rent (which is the case for most outside the top 100). Into this category I'd put Baker. That's not to say I think these guys will get there, or even that they're good enough but I think they deserve it. (In Baker's case I do believe he'll get there in the next year or two).

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Junior player

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From the matches I have seen Bogdanovic play, I don't think he has the game necessary to be consistently top 100. His serve and forehand are good enough, but his backhand and court coverage don't make the grade. As a left hander, you need to have a backhand that will hold up to the pressure of crosscourt exchanges and you must deal with a right handed players forehand.

The last time I saw Alex play was in Las Vegas against Sam Querrey, a solid player who has been ranked between 50 and 70 for most of the last year, and he was simply outplayed. He has beaten Delic twice, but Delic is the kind of player who may slip in and out of the top 100, and obviously benefits from the huge amount of Challengers and tour level events held in the U.S.

I hope that he can work on the aspects of his game which need to be improved, because I'd love for him to be top 100, but I don't think he's there yet.

I've never seen Baker play, but he seems to have an excellent attitude and shows steady improvement, so I think he has a better chance.

It would surprise me if Bloomfield and Goodall get there because they have lost too many matches to lower ranked players and their rankings have been up and down. For the most part, top 100 players show steady improvement in their rankings before they reach the top 100.

Players like Slabinsky, Ward and Phillips stand a better chance because they are continuing to reach new career highs.

If we can really concentrate on our good 17 and 18 year olds who are doing well internationally in the juniors, maybe one or two of them can push through to the top 100 in the men's game

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On my original post i think "Deserved" was possibly a bad choice of word

players i believed would be top 100 would have been better, Boggo and Baker and also Goodall were originally players i thought would achieve it with Bloomers being a top 200 player.

But out of these i can only see Baker actually achieving it and the biggest suprise for me is Goodall slipping rapidly down the rankings and showing no sign of winning tourny's even at 10k futures!

But although my above comments may seem a little negative i did counter it by saying i really do believe players like Eaton, Ward, Cox and Evans can climb the rankings and maybe take the spotlight away from the current Top 5 brits

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I think boggo will break into the top 100, it will just take some time, he got pretty close last season.

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Count Zero wrote:

i dont think blades stats inc qualies, boggo bt 4 top 100 players last year if u inc them, delic twice (in qualies), ht lee & rainer schuttler. also his reults vs 100-200 go up to about 7 wins as well (i guess his loses would rise too). for boggo in particular is was a weird year with so much time missed.

i wonder if our players arn't helped by the fact that so rarely do they get the opportunity to play vs top players, esp the ones who stay and train in the uk.

with only 3 home atp events, and all on a unqiue surafce is it no wonder they find the step up harsh, and now they have even ditched the challenegrs it will be even harder to get that experience.

the ones who train in amercia/spain will at least get to train with a top guy on occasion i think.



Firstly you are right that they dont include qualies, a different animal entirely, whether it would greatly alter the ratios, I dont know.

I dont think Boggo has been particluarly unlucky with injuries, virtually all players tend to get injuries at some point of the season because 11 months is a long time, though I accept that if his injury had come at a different time he may well have made top 100, albeit briefly possibly already.

Cant really buy the argument about tournaments either, who has just won the Aussie Open? How many 'home' events or WC's did he benefit from, how many Serbs are there in the top 200, (6) how much support did those guys get compared to a Baker or a Boggo.

I take the point that there may be others who could make the top 100, and under some circumstances I am sure Boggo could make it, but whether he has what it takes to stay there for a consistent period remains unproven.

I have to say I desperately hope he can, I think he is a talented player, a frustrating player to support because he is capable of really amazing shots at times and it is after all not his fault if he suffers with nerves but hopefully he will continue to get better at handling that.


Maybe he will be one of those players who, when he finally gets the top 100 monkey off his back goes from strength to strength and really rockets, I certainly hope so.

As for Yorkie's point, Boggo is the only player that I can see possibly making the top 100, I think Jamie Baker will make the most of his talent because I think he's a great pro, but I'd still be suprised to see him make top 100, Bloomers has such a good serve you feel he ought to do better and he does hit the ball well, just feel he ought to impose himself more on the court, but I dont think he's that sort of guy.

So should we count on the 'younger' ones? In my view they will get all the support they could ask for. I'm not convinced we've got anyone coming through that is better than the current generation, though I am excited by George Morgan and really hope he might do well, though it's very early to say.




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i dont think u can compare us with serbia (same for russia and all the other eastern european countires), the in born hunger is there whereas its much harder to find here. andy probably has it and would have succeded anyway, but he did come from about as good a tennis back ground possible.

i saw an arctile about micheal boulding, i dont know how good a player he was be he said his best win was over ranier schuttler so he cant be that bad, but it is easier to make it in the lower leagues of football.
as most sports men tend to be good at all sports i am sure a lot will settle for the eaiser life in football.

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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.


www.alexbogdanovic.com



Pro player

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Count Zero wrote:

i dont think u can compare us with serbia (same for russia and all the other eastern european countires), the in born hunger is there whereas its much harder to find here. andy probably has it and would have succeded anyway, but he did come from about as good a tennis back ground possible.



Well, you're right of course, but doesnt that actually sum up the whole argument about why our players dont make it and there's do. Namely they want it more than we do.

I dont think we should criticise the LTA for not supporting the players enough on the one hand and then say "Well you cant expect our players to want it as badly as the serbians" I'm sure the LTA could do more but I'm equally sure that the support, number of tournaments, coaching etc wouldnt stop you if you had the talent and the desire, and if you havent got both of them, then no amount of support would have made the difference anyway.


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