Coronavirus - general, non tennis related

indiana · Tennis legend

Coronavirus - general, non tennis related

Elegant Point · Satellite level

JonH comes home wrote:
I see Jet2 have cancelled all flights and holidays now until end of June; the Government are still not announcing the countries that fall into which of the new traffic lights but most of Europe (and Jet2 destinations) will be Amber and the cost of the tests people need to take will make many holidays prohibitive.

We are due to fly mid July to Madeira but need to pay our balance by 2nd May. We will discuss it this weekend but with the uncertainty, likely Amber list status (and need to self isolate at home on return) and likely poor conditions for a holiday in Madeira itself, we will probably cancel and write off the deposit.

Onto next year!

Hopefully you wont lose your deposit? Apparently the cost of testing will be £420 per person or £1680 for a family of four, so will add significantly to the cost of a holiday. The airlines have asked for the PCR test to be scrapped in favour of a cheaper option for travellers to low risk countries.....

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Elegant Point wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
I see Jet2 have cancelled all flights and holidays now until end of June; the Government are still not announcing the countries that fall into which of the new traffic lights but most of Europe (and Jet2 destinations) will be Amber and the cost of the tests people need to take will make many holidays prohibitive.

We are due to fly mid July to Madeira but need to pay our balance by 2nd May. We will discuss it this weekend but with the uncertainty, likely Amber list status (and need to self isolate at home on return) and likely poor conditions for a holiday in Madeira itself, we will probably cancel and write off the deposit.

Onto next year!
Hopefully you wont lose your deposit? Apparently the cost of testing will be £420 per person or £1680 for a family of four, so will add significantly to the cost of a holiday. The airlines have asked for the PCR test to be scrapped in favour of a cheaper option for travellers to low risk countries.....

Exactly - prohibitive . The deposit is 60 pounds each, for 2 of us, so not the end of the world. Although I wouldnt throw 120 pounds away! But the test costs are an awful lot. Jet2 have actually moved the final payment date back one month to end may now so we can kick the can down the road a few weeks but I still think we will probably cancel in due course.

Elegant Point · Satellite level

Interestingly potential clots are being investigated with the US roll out of the Johnson and Johnson C-19 vaccine. EU officials have tracked four cases of unusual blood clots with low blood platelets following vaccination, the European Medicines Agencys (EMA's) Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee is assessing the situation as 1 person has died.

www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/johnson-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-spotlight-at-ema-after-4-serious-cases-unusual-blood

Uni Cambridge have published risk data communicating the potential benefits and harms of the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine for low, med and high risk exposure. The potential benefits outweigh the potential harms....

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/976877/CovidStats_07-04-21-final.pdf

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

It makes perfect sense that the two viral vector adenovirus vaccines would have the same problem.

Both Johnson & Johnson use a different vector virus to transport the spike protein: AZ use a chimpanzee one, J&J use a human one.

But it adds an extra layer of complication (unlike Pfizer and Moderna which are MRNA and do not have that foreign material).

So I don't think it's at all surprising that J&J have the same, exceptionally rare side-effect problem.

emmsie69 · ATP level

Elegant Point wrote:
Interestingly potential clots are being investigated with the US roll out of the Johnson and Johnson C-19 vaccine. EU officials have tracked four cases of unusual blood clots with low blood platelets following vaccination, the European Medicines Agencys (EMA's) Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee is assessing the situation as 1 person has died.

www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/johnson-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-spotlight-at-ema-after-4-serious-cases-unusual-blood

Uni Cambridge have published risk data communicating the potential benefits and harms of the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine for low, med and high risk exposure. The potential benefits outweigh the potential harms....

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/976877/CovidStats_07-04-21-final.pdf

I'm not a Scientist, however pretty much all the under 50's that have had the vaccination will either have underlying health conditions or be carers. I'd like to see the % with the people with underlying health conditions stripped out and vice versa to see what the actual risk is in different age groups.

indiana · Tennis legend

The big thing at the moment is the UK death rate compared to most of Europe.

Covid deaths in the last week per miilion population

1. Hungary 177
2. Bosnia & H 164
3. N Macedonia 139
4. Bulgaria 126

Italy 54
France 32
Spain 17
Germany 15

UK 3

Might just have something to do with the UK vaccine roll-out and so liitle relative risk established so far, certainly in older people.

emmsie69 · ATP level

indiana wrote:
The big thing at the moment is the UK death rate compared to most of Europe.

Covid deaths in the last week per miilion population

1. Hungary 177
2. Bosnia & H 164
3. N Macedonia 139
4. Bulgaria 126

Italy 54
France 32
Spain 17
Germany 15

UK 3

Might just have something to do with the UK vaccine roll-out and so liitle relative risk established so far, certainly in older people.

Spain is probably the most comparable to us in terms of case numbers, lockdown etc. I remain unconvinced with the statistics from other countries though. How is Italy's death rate so much higher than others. Its the same with ours. We are testing far more than other countries so you would expect our case total per 100,000 to be higher however it's not but more have been dying here so either Brits are way more unhealthy than other nationalities (almost certainly true) Our NHS isn't as great as people think it is (possibly) or other countries aren't being as thorough in their reporting (also almost certainly true) We won't have the true picture for atleast a year and for 3rd world countries we will probably never know how many died of Covid as they don't have the statistical data that we do.

indiana · Tennis legend

Certainly in the first wave the UK true cases were huge compared to the positive test reported case figures since we were so slow to get testing properly going and indeed were generally simply advising people with non severe symptons to isolate at home without testing.

So in the early days the reported desths / reported cases rate looked very bsd for the UK. In time, wih much more extensive testing it has overall fallen to about 3%, sinilar to Italy with Spain nearer 2%. With such issues about reported case numbers ( so under- reported that many experts estimate the general true overall rate as fairly well under 1%, though clearly very variable with age ) I don't think we can come to any real thoughts on comparative efficiency in keeping cases alive based on that ratio and thus nor draw conclusions on comparative health services and/or or nations' health. Add to that, as you say, many other countries general reporting is fairly dubious anyway.

How clear things things will ever be is debatable, even for the advanced coutries. But overall covid deaths per capita will tell some story and excess death figures will add in the indirect effects of the pandemic on non covid deaths.

Elegant Point · Satellite level

How could a COVID vaccine cause blood clots? why would a vaccine trigger such an unusual condition? There are hypotheses: maybe its something with the vector, maybe its an additive in the vaccine, maybe its something in the production process.

The EMA is asking AstraZeneca to conduct a number of investigations, including laboratory studies to determine the effect of the vaccine on blood clotting, and evaluations of data from clinical trials, to try to glean any further information about risk factors.

Although there are reports that the syndrome is seen more often in women than in men, particularly those aged under 60, the EMA was unable to conclude that women are at higher risk. Many countries prioritized health-care workers to receive the inoculations, and women comprise a larger segment of this workforce.

IMO could be the antibodies to C-19 mimic a protein in the clotting cascade?? Differences in the delivery system (viral vector vs mRNA) may have some impact, in which case clots wont be seen with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

Germany is allegedly ordering the Sputnik vaccine. Id rather take my chances with the Oxford/AZ or J & J vaccine any day!!

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00940-0

www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-mulls-possible-order-of-russian-vaccine/2021/04/08/697430a6-9861-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Elegant Point wrote:
How could a COVID vaccine cause blood clots? why would a vaccine trigger such an unusual condition? There are hypotheses: maybe its something with the vector, maybe its an additive in the vaccine, maybe its something in the production process.

The EMA is asking AstraZeneca to conduct a number of investigations, including laboratory studies to determine the effect of the vaccine on blood clotting, and evaluations of data from clinical trials, to try to glean any further information about risk factors.

Although there are reports that the syndrome is seen more often in women than in men, particularly those aged under 60, the EMA was unable to conclude that women are at higher risk. Many countries prioritized health-care workers to receive the inoculations, and women comprise a larger segment of this workforce.

IMO could be the antibodies to C-19 mimic a protein in the clotting cascade?? Differences in the delivery system (viral vector vs mRNA) may have some impact, in which case clots wont be seen with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

Germany is allegedly ordering the Sputnik vaccine. Id rather take my chances with the Oxford/AZ or J & J vaccine any day!!

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00940-0

www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-mulls-possible-order-of-russian-vaccine/2021/04/08/697430a6-9861-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html

I read somewhere yesterday that you are more likely to die in a car accident on the way to the vaccine centre than to get a blood clot. And win the lottery etc.

Which isnt to say you wont have that car accident or win the lottery, but it says something about people's thought processes if the AZ vaccine spooks them in this way.

My 2nd is on 3rd June and I can't wait!!

My next door neighbour (MiL to CBR if anyone read my baftas post) has her 2nd tomorrow, my daugher is driving her to the centre over in York. Glad she is getting done, my parents have had theirs and we all feel much better for it!

Miriambee · Futures level

I came across a woman who had a stroke 2 days after her 1st vaccine, but was still happy to have her 2nd one, so while it's not possible to say the 2 are definitively linked it makes you wonder if there aren't a lot more unreported side effects.

christ · Futures qualifying

Miriambee wrote:
I came across a woman who had a stroke 2 days after her 1st vaccine, but was still happy to have her 2nd one, so while it's not possible to say the 2 are definitively linked it makes you wonder if there aren't a lot more unreported side effects.

Elegant Point · Satellite level

C-19 mutants

A nice summary of the worlds three major C-19 variants in the article below. These variants have been tracked to the UK, Brazil and S Africa. Mutations can mean the virus is more readily transmitted and able to evade the immune system. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines appear to be effective against the variants.

www.visualcapitalist.com/the-3-major-covid-19-variants/

My niece was working in Mumbai prior to the pandemic and has heard from a number of colleagues who are all relatively young (under 28) and who have all been ill with C-19, two of them have been hospitalised.

An analysis of samples collected from India's western Maharashtra state showed "an increase in the fraction of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations" compared with December last year. The Indian government has denied that the rise in cases is linked to the double mutant.

Has it been found outside India?
This variant has been detected in at least 10 other countries, including the U.S., the U.K., Australia and New Zealand, according to the situation report on outbreak.info

www.livemint.com/news/india/indias-double-mutation-covid-virus-variant-is-worrying-the-world-11618789603145.html

In the meantime, experts are emphasizing the importance of following our current public health strategies, which include physical distancing, vaccination, washing your hands, and using masks.

indiana · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
indiana wrote:
After the reduced rate of fall in new cases then slight rise, there was a welcome fairly big drop in the UK reported new cases in the last week up to Friday - probably to a surprising extent with every day reporting under 5,000 and Friday 3,402. The last week's total of 29,203 represents 43 per 100,000 population.

The weekly death total continues to fall and has been more than halving every two weeks for a while. Down from 3633 to 301 in 6 weeks

UK reported new cases and deaths :

13/02 - 19/02 : 81471, 3633
20/02 - 26/02 : 67816, 2495
27/02 - 05/03 : 44219, 1674
06/03 - 12/03 : 40982, 1082
13/03 - 19/03 : 37398, 683
20/03 - 26/03 : 38781, 489
27/03 - 02/04 : 29203, 301
Continuing down, including a second successive week's very good new cases drop.
03/04 - 09/04 : 19773, 224

With more relaxations, the UK new covid cases have again been dropping slower over the last 2 weeks but at least have still been dropping. Last 2 weeks' new cases and death figures:

10/04 - 16/04 : 17816, 185

17/04 - 23/04 : 17377 (25.5 per 100K), 160