British Tennis Forum - Celebrating 20 Years!

paulisi · Tennis legend

Top 500

indiana · Tennis legend

paulisi wrote:
Am I correct in saying it is 17 with Paul Jubb, Kyle Edmund and Jay Clarke hoping to get back in when they reappear.

Ali Gray will drop out. Anyone know when he will return?

Yes, it will be 17 in the top 500 next Monday when Giles' Sweden M15 title points add.

I don't know what Ali's situation is but yes he is due to drop out of the top 500 in October plus Giles and Harry could drop back out. Toby could drop out in November. The other 13 will definitely end the year in the top 500.

But over the coming months some players will likely move into or back into the top 500 and if enough other players manage that then it could get very interesting if and when Paul, Kyle and Jay get back into action.

The 3 domestic M25s in weeks beginning 16/10, 23/10 and 30/10 could be rather helpful.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Very interesting to look at prospects by the end of the year:

Assuming 80pts is enough
Norrie, Evans, Murray, Draper, Broady, Choinski, Peniston, Harris, Fery, McHugh, Loffhagen, Broom, Cox - all guaranteed

From the rest:
Toby Samuel on 107 - 2x 15pts, 1x 3pts to drop - takes down to 74pts, so needs to find 6pts.- DEPENDS ON PLANS(at college)
Harry W on 90 - 1x 25pts, 1 x 1pts to drop - needs to find 18pts - MODERATE
Giles H - on 86 - 1x16pts, 1x8pts, 1x4pts, 1x 1pts to drop - needs to find 25pts - MODERATE
Ali Gray - on 82 - lots of points to defend and no sign of a return - VERY DIFFICULT
Jay - on 77 - nothing to defend - needs to find 3pts - LIKELY
Paul Jubb - on 65 - 1x30, 1x 16, 1x 7 to drop - VERY DIFFICULT
Felix - on 64 - 1pt to drop - big points to add this week. LIKELY
Anton - on 61 - 1x3pts, 1x 1pt - MODERATE
Kyle - on 51 - nothing to drop - MODERATE

I suspect everyone else is too far back for 2023.

Summary:
13 Guaranteed
2 likely
Thus relying on Toby, Harry W, Giles H, Anton and Kyle

indiana · Tennis legend

Nice summary.

Would be great to have Paul back because although he relative to others does have a lot of points to find, he is relatively that much better that, fit and well, he would have much more chance than others. I reckon a bit more possible than Ali.

Just thinking about the 21st most likely candidate after those 20 best positioned that you have identified, in that I'd rather have more than 20 hopes for 20 spots. Dan Little may be another - not managed much at all in recent months but is on 54 points with 50 banked for year end, and has had big weeks in the past.

A lot does still need to come together to get 20 in the top 500 by this year end. Again, the 3 domestic M25s could yet be very helpful - GB team effort guys, let the right players win and gather points!

paulisi · Tennis legend

The outside bets
Dan Little - mentioned above, but not done much for a while
Mark Whitehouse - due a big scorer, tends to have one a season
Stuart Parker - capable, but needs lots of big weeks
Hamish Stewart- capable, but needs lots of big weeks
Henry Searle - capable, but needs lots of big weeks

Uni Students
JoMo - no idea on schedule
JPJ - no idea on schedule

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

I think Stuart Parker should be in the 'more capable' category - anyone who was recently top 350 or so must be a much better bet to make the top-500 again if he's no longer injured than someone like Hamish (much as I love him) who's never been there before

After all, what are you basing Hamish's 'capable' on? He's done well recently and all is possible but it hasn't looked top-500 quite yet

Millen Hurrion shouldn't be ruled out either - although you could say he's in a similar boat to Hamish

He's playing seriously at the moment and I'd expect both him and Hamish to be about 600 quite easily - which means with a little more effort, and luck, it could be better

I'd also put Jake Fearnley and Connor Thomson on the watch list. Of course, they're miles off at the moment. But they have the chance to 'do a Toby' or 'do an Ali G' - i.e. the college players can jump up very quickly, once they actually play some tournaments

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

L32: Johannus Monday WR 700 defeated Laurent Lokoli (FRA) WR 225

A result to get Bob's antennae twitching....

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
L32: Johannus Monday WR 700 defeated Laurent Lokoli (FRA) WR 225

A result to get Bob's antennae twitching....

Needs a few more of those though.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Stu Parker seems to be entered in a few 15ks over the next few weeks, so if he can maintain his form, must have a chance of breaking in the top 500
Felix Gill is now no.14 guaranteed until end of year.

Correction ref Toby Samuel - not on roster at South Carolina and entered at Edgbaston, so now likely.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Could be a very big week, with all but Anton playing - down for Glasgow next week

paulisi · Tennis legend

paulisi wrote:
Very interesting to look at prospects by the end of the year:

Assuming 80pts is enough
Norrie, Evans, Murray, Draper, Broady, Choinski, Peniston, Harris, Fery, McHugh, Loffhagen, Broom, Cox - all guaranteed

From the rest:
Toby Samuel on 107 - 2x 15pts, 1x 3pts to drop - takes down to 74pts, so needs to find 6pts.- DEPENDS ON PLANS(at college)
Harry W on 90 - 1x 25pts, 1 x 1pts to drop - needs to find 18pts - MODERATE
Giles H - on 86 - 1x16pts, 1x8pts, 1x4pts, 1x 1pts to drop - needs to find 25pts - MODERATE
Ali Gray - on 82 - lots of points to defend and no sign of a return - VERY DIFFICULT
Jay - on 77 - nothing to defend - needs to find 3pts - LIKELY
Paul Jubb - on 65 - 1x30, 1x 16, 1x 7 to drop - VERY DIFFICULT
Felix - on 64 - 1pt to drop - big points to add this week. LIKELY
Anton - on 61 - 1x3pts, 1x 1pt - MODERATE
Kyle - on 51 - nothing to drop - MODERATE

I suspect everyone else is too far back for 2023.

Summary:
13 Guaranteed
2 likely
Thus relying on Toby, Harry W, Giles H, Anton and Kyle

Toby Samuel and Felix Gill both guaranteed until new year.

15 Guaranteed

Jay Clarke virtually there

Giles closing in this week.

Kyle is moving up nicely. If Harry W and Anton have decent weeks in the domestic 25ks over the next couple of weeks it may happen.

Stu Parker is your backup, but may take a few more weeks.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Im sure if we go back 12 months we will find the exact same conversation taking place - sadly, it didnt happen and it wont happen now! Sorry to be party pooper but we have been here before and , realistically, we are a long way away still, I think.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

paulisi wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Looking at todays live rankings, the race for 10/250 and 20/500 is close...

Top 250 - we have 8 in and 10th is in 287 (Billy). So we have 80 percent of the players in place and the 10th is 14.8% outside the 250 mark

Top 500 - we have 17 in and the 20th (Kyle) is at 551. So, we have 85% of the players in place and 20th is 10.2% outside the 500 mark.

Very tight in this little challenge, the top 500 seems just that little bit more achievable right now, to me at least, based on those stats and looking at the players concerned (i just dont see Billy as a top 250 player, really sorry and much as I like him).

However, I still dont really see us getting either mark by year end!
If Kyle is fit, he is a no brainer.
JPJ needs one decent tournament and then we are reliant on one more to have a decent couple of tournaments - JoMo would be my pick.
I think it will happen before Nov.

-- Edited by paulisi on Monday 26th of September 2022 01:12:31 PM

Jon and Paulisi are like a great double act - Mr Chirpy and My Doom-and-Gloom

This is the two of them from last year - Paulisi who was all hyped that it was going to happen before Nov 2022, and Jon who was on the never, we're miles away, track.

And here we are again biggrin

In all seriousness, I think this 'race' - both for the 20 in the top 500 and 10 in the top 250 - has been really interesting, and exciting. And continues to be - we've been VERY close many times, but just can't get over the line.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
paulisi wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Looking at todays live rankings, the race for 10/250 and 20/500 is close...

Top 250 - we have 8 in and 10th is in 287 (Billy). So we have 80 percent of the players in place and the 10th is 14.8% outside the 250 mark

Top 500 - we have 17 in and the 20th (Kyle) is at 551. So, we have 85% of the players in place and 20th is 10.2% outside the 500 mark.

Very tight in this little challenge, the top 500 seems just that little bit more achievable right now, to me at least, based on those stats and looking at the players concerned (i just dont see Billy as a top 250 player, really sorry and much as I like him).

However, I still dont really see us getting either mark by year end!
If Kyle is fit, he is a no brainer.
JPJ needs one decent tournament and then we are reliant on one more to have a decent couple of tournaments - JoMo would be my pick.
I think it will happen before Nov.

-- Edited by paulisi on Monday 26th of September 2022 01:12:31 PM
Jon and Paulisi are like a great double act - Mr Chirpy and My Doom-and-Gloom
This is the two of them from last year - Paulisi who was all hyped that it was going to happen before Nov 2022, and Jon who was on the never, we're miles away, track.
And here we are again
In all seriousness, I think this 'race' - both for the 20 in the top 500 and 10 in the top 250 - has been really interesting, and exciting. And continues to be - we've been VERY close many times, but just can't get over the line.

Tell me about it disbelief

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
paulisi wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Looking at todays live rankings, the race for 10/250 and 20/500 is close...

Top 250 - we have 8 in and 10th is in 287 (Billy). So we have 80 percent of the players in place and the 10th is 14.8% outside the 250 mark

Top 500 - we have 17 in and the 20th (Kyle) is at 551. So, we have 85% of the players in place and 20th is 10.2% outside the 500 mark.

Very tight in this little challenge, the top 500 seems just that little bit more achievable right now, to me at least, based on those stats and looking at the players concerned (i just dont see Billy as a top 250 player, really sorry and much as I like him).

However, I still dont really see us getting either mark by year end!
If Kyle is fit, he is a no brainer.
JPJ needs one decent tournament and then we are reliant on one more to have a decent couple of tournaments - JoMo would be my pick.
I think it will happen before Nov.

-- Edited by paulisi on Monday 26th of September 2022 01:12:31 PM
Jon and Paulisi are like a great double act - Mr Chirpy and My Doom-and-Gloom
This is the two of them from last year - Paulisi who was all hyped that it was going to happen before Nov 2022, and Jon who was on the never, we're miles away, track.
And here we are again
In all seriousness, I think this 'race' - both for the 20 in the top 500 and 10 in the top 250 - has been really interesting, and exciting. And continues to be - we've been VERY close many times, but just can't get over the line.

Haha- indeed and i remembered the discussion as well! Dont get me wrong, Id love to see it happen, both targete and it has made it fun to follow; Id love to be proved wrong ! Lets see what transpires!

I noticed i commented a year ago on not seeing Billy as a top 250 player, lets hope that is proven wrong very soon!